If There's A General Political Realignment, Which Lesser Of Two Evils Party Will You Side With?

For the most part, I was born into a family where people had pretty high IQs. There was one exception, a glaring one… and that’s the only Trump supporter I’m related to. The spouse is even dumber and even more devoted to Trump. So you can’t blame me when my first reaction to hearing about someone being for Trump is to imagine they’re a moron. I know it’s not necessarily true. But… even on election night, 2016, Trump recognized that he was headed to the White House because of “the poorly educated.”

And numerous academic studies show that lower cognitive abilities— a proxy for IQ— correlate with more authoritarian and conservative political views. A well-known study by Gordon Hodson and Michael Busseri (2012) found that lower childhood intelligence predicted greater racism and authoritarian attitudes in adulthood. Conservative beliefs, including nationalism, hierarchical social orders, xenophobia and resistance to social change— the MAGA platform— are thought to be more cognitively “simple,” relying on rigid structures and less cognitive flexibility. This research proves a connection between lower IQ and attraction to authoritarian leaders like Señor T, even if the correlation hasn’t been proven to be deterministic. In fact, other studies have shown that educational attainment is a stronger predictor— or at least an easier one— than IQ alone in determining political preference. In the 2020 election, Trump performed better among voters without a college degree, particularly white voters, while Biden performed better among those with higher educational qualifications. Generally, counties with lower educational attainment are redder and counties with higher educational attainment are bluer. IQ and educational attainment aren’t perfectly correlated.

There’s no doubt that Trump's use of 4th or 5th grade vocabulary, his populist rhetoric and simplistic, emotional policy narratives appeal to voters with lower levels of education and cognitive complexity, but IQ alone isn’t the only factor. To be fair, there are some Trump supporters who are motivated by cultural and economic grievances, anti-elite sentiments, and a preference for a perception of strong, decisive leadership, which cuts across IQ levels. Still, research has proven over time that people with lower cognitive complexity prefer simple, black-and-white solutions to problems and are more likely to gravitate toward authoritarian figures, as these leaders offer certainty and decisiveness in a chaotic world. Pretty much all MAGAts exhibit “motivated reasoning,” where their cognitive abilities are used not to objectively analyze information but to defend existing beliefs.

OMG! I went right down a rabbit hole when all I meant to do was share some of Nate Cohn’s observations about why polls seem to be showing that Trump is likely to do somewhat better with Black and Hispanic voters  than he or other Republicans have in the past. The [flawed] poll he uses has Kamala leading Trump 78-15% among Black voters and 56-37% among voters he wants to round up, put in concentration camps and deport— sorry; I mean Hispanic voters. In 2020, Biden won Black voters with 92% and Hispanic voters with 63%. Cohn offered 5 explanations, none of which had anything directly to do with intelligence, education or even the probable political realignment between the two parties, that sees better off and better educated Republicans migrating towards a more conservative and business-friendly Democratic Party and less educated, less well-off Democrats migrating towards a more populist GOP.

1- They don’t mind the dog whistles; in fact they like them.

• Around 40 percent of Black voters and 43 percent of Hispanic voters say they support building a wall along the Southern border. Similarly, 45 percent of Hispanic voters and 41 percent of Black voters say they support deporting undocumented immigrants.

• Half of Hispanic voters and nearly half— 47 percent— of Black voters say that crime in big cities is a major problem that’s gotten out of control. That’s essentially the same as the share of white voters (50 percent) who say the same.

“A majority of Black and Hispanic voters,” wrote Cohn, “seem to sympathize with his ‘America First’ foreign policy, saying that America ought to pay less attention to problems overseas and concentrate on problems at home.”

2- They’re not offended; they might even be entertained

3. It’s the economy, stupid

Many people assume that Democrats win Black and Hispanic voters simply because of the party’s commitment to advancing racial equality, but the role of economic self-interest should not be underestimated. Democrats started winning Black and Hispanic voters in the 1930s, not in the 1960s, because Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal helped redefine the Democrats as the party of the working class, not just the party of the former Confederacy.

Just 20 percent of Hispanic voters and 26 percent of Black voters say the current economic conditions are good or excellent. More than half of both groups say they have “often” cut back on groceries over the last year because of the cost.

This is important for economically vulnerable voters— especially those who have previously voted for Democrats on the assumption that they represented their economic interests. Overall, the economy was the most-cited issue among Black and Hispanic voters when asked what would most decide their vote this November.

As a celebrity billionaire businessman, Trump has always had an advantage on this issue [albeit among stupid people, not intelligent people], whether against Clinton or Biden. Now, Trump is running again at a time when voters are more dissatisfied with the economy than before, and when many look back on Trump’s presidency as a prosperous and peaceful time. Harris has a mere 69-25 lead among Black voters who rate the economy as the most important factor for their vote; Trump leads, 61-35, among Hispanic voters who say the economy matters most.

When combined with the rest of Trump’s populist pitch, the poll finds that the Democratic core brand advantage as the party of the working class has eroded. Black and Hispanic voters still see Democrats as the party of the working class, but only by a 76-18 margin in the case of Black voters and a 56-35 advantage among Hispanics. It’s a notable shift from September 2022, when Democrats had a 58-27 lead among Hispanic voters by this measure.

4- The end of hope and change

Cohn pointed out that “Of all the questions in the survey, perhaps the single worst one for Democrats was on the question of which party best ‘keeps its promises.’ Just 63 percent of Black voters and 46 percent of Hispanic voters said ‘keeps its promises’ describes the Democratic Party better than the Republicans. Black and Hispanic voters don’t necessarily doubt Democratic intentions, but they are disappointed in the results. Democrats fared poorly on questions like whether the party can ‘fix the problems facing people like me,’ even as they excelled on ‘understand the problems facing people like me.’ In the presidential race, few seem to be convinced that Harris will make a difference in their lives.”

5- For a new generation, Trump is ‘normal’

Trump is doing better than other Republicans have among young Black men and he’s leading (55-38%) among Hispanic males under 45 years old. “These young men,” wrote Cohn,  “came of age long after the civil rights movement that cemented nearly unanimous Democratic support among Black voters 60 years ago. The youngest were toddlers during the Obama ’08 campaign. They may not have a vivid memory of Trump’s 2016 campaign. To them, Trump may be ‘normal'— a fixture of their lives to this point, naturally making it harder to depict him as a norm-defying ‘threat to democracy.’ While these events forged and cemented Democratic loyalties among their elders, today’s young Black and Hispanic voters have come of age in a different era.” And he warned that even if Señor T’s “support is not fully realized in the final results this November, it may only be a matter of time before Republicans break through.”