Señor T has drawn some especially unsavory characters— as in Nazis— into the already pretty rancid GOP tent. That’s playing out especially badly in the runoff election in the sprawling and somewhat swingy—majority Hispanic— 23rd district of south Texas, where mainstream incumbent Tony Gonzales is bogged down in a nasty fight with Nazi gun-nut Brandon Herrera. Four Gonzales opponents held him to under 50% in the March 5 primary. The runoff between Gonzales and Herrera is on May 28. Gonzales, who won all 29 counties, is a probably winner but... Matt Gaetz and other far right troublemakers are working hard to defeat him.
The district— which goes from El Paso to San Antonio— had a very shaky R+5 partisan lean until the legislature gerrymandered it in 2020 to give Republicans an R+13 advantage, frightened because Hillary won it in 2016. Gonzales was first elected in 2020 and has runup a relatively mainstream conservative voting record.
So far, Gonzales has raised $3,721,586 to Herrer's $1,212,498. The House Freedom Caucus has spent $117,705 bolstering Herrera who has been endorsed by extremists like Matt Gaetz (R-FL), Eli Crane (R-AZ), Bob Good (R-VA), Ralph Norman (R-SC)... although other extremists, like Texans Ronny Jackson and Greg Abbott, have endorsed Gonzales, as have MAGA Mike and corrupt, indicted Blue Dog Democrat Henry Cuellar.
Yesterday, Olivia Beaver and Ally Mutnick reported that “If Gonzales loses the runoff at the end of the month, Republican leaders would face two worse alternatives. They either risk losing the seat entirely thanks to an unpalatable Republican nominee— who has mocked the Holocaust, veterans’ suicides and Barron Trump— or they hold it but welcome into their ranks someone who is likely to further inflame internal caucus divisions. ‘The reality is if Tony doesn’t win the primary, the Dems win the seat,’ said Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-TX), who is backing Gonzales. ‘The guy that’s running against him could potentially win the primary, but he cannot win the general election. So, I think it’s a pretty clear choice. It should be for most people.’… But his votes in support of gun control and same-sex marriage earned him a host of enemies and a censure from the Texas GOP. And he’s not winning any popularity contests in Washington, either, after repeated public criticism of his colleagues.”
It takes uncommon political skill to survive a runoff as an incumbent. And Gonzales not only has to win over voters, but he also has to confront attacks from members of his own conference who are enthusiastically campaigning for Herrera. That enthusiasm only grew after Gonzales called conservatives “scumbags” in a recent TV interview and said Gaetz “paid minors to have sex with him at drug parties.”
“He’s never had a job before other than being a YouTuber. He’s used to saying a bunch of crazy things to get clicks,” Gonzales said in an interview. “Herrera isn’t going to win, and he isn’t even trying to win.”
Still, the Texas GOP’s maneuvers against Gonzales are perhaps the most appalling to fellow House members.
“I’m against the circular firing squad that has occurred recently in Texas politics,” said Rep. Jake Ellzey (R-TX), who is backing Gonzales. “The Texas GOP is responsible for electing Republican candidates, not electing their own Republican candidates.”
While Speaker Mike Johnson is backing Gonzales, even attending a campaign fundraiser in his state, some Republicans are pushing for the speaker to revisit his joint fundraising committee’s relationship with the Texas state party— which has transferred funds to the very group working to oust his incumbent.
There has been a pause in that activity, at least, even as some of Gonzales’ allies push for a permanent end to it. The speaker’s joint fundraising committee did not disburse any money to the Texas GOP in the first quarter of this year, according to Federal Election Commission records.
Gonzales raised more than $1 million in the first quarter and has spent nearly twice as much on TV as Herrera, according to the media firm AdImpact. He has the support of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, House GOP leadership and $1.6 million in spending from the American Action Network, a nonprofit aligned with Johnson.
Another dynamic working in Gonzales’ favor: Donald Trump is remaining neutral in the primary— at least for now, according to an adviser who recently spoke with the former president and was granted anonymity to discuss a private conversation. Trump’s instinct may have been to endorse against Gonzales, who voted for the bipartisan commission to investigate the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. But Trump is aware that Herrera mocked his youngest son and questioned whether he could win a general election, the person said.
…Gaetz dismissed concerns that a Herrera primary win might cost the GOP in the general election, saying in an interview: “We barely have the seat now.”
The Florida conservative, who has taken on other incumbents this cycle, argued that Gonzales’ remarks on Rep. Chip Roy’s (R-TX) border bill really energized his critics.
“When Tony Gonzalez called those of us fighting for border protections un-Christian, it struck a nerve. And we’d like that question to be litigated for Tony’s constituents,” Gaetz added.
Gonzales hasn’t taken the pushback quietly. He’s attacked Gaetz repeatedly and called his primary opponent a “neo-Nazi” on CNN late last month— a characterization Herrera fiercely disputes.
The Roy-Gonzales spat was perhaps one of the House GOP’s fiercest internal fights to spill out in public view— in a period that saw several ugly brawls. Some said it snowballed into a rift with others in the delegation.
“It won’t hurt my feelings at all if he loses that runoff,” a third Texas Republican said of Gonzales, also granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Texas’ 23rd District, which spans from the outskirts of San Antonio toward El Paso and includes 800 miles of the U.S.-Mexico border, used to be the most competitive seat in the entire state. But redistricting transformed it into a region that Trump would have won by 7 points, and Latino voters’ shift toward Trump since 2016 has further insulated the GOP.
Democrats would face a tall task in flipping the seat— Gonzales won by 17 points in 2022— and it is not currently on their target list. The Democratic nominee, Santos Limon, is a civil engineer and small business owner with lackluster fundraising; he reported raising less than $100,000 as of mid-February. But, privately, some Democratic strategists agree a Herrera nomination would present a unique opportunity.
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