If Someone Offers You 100 To 1 Odds That The Wyoming Election Will Be Close, Don't Take The Bet

This is real. Trump released it. The DWT Art Department did not create it.

There's no happy ending for the the Liz Cheney story-- or at least not for this chapter. Wyoming is the single most politically backward state in America. In 2020, the state produced the highest percentage of moron voters-- 69.94%-- than any other state. Trump won every county but two. A state with the lowest vaccination rate in the country-- 41%-- has 3 counties in which less than a quarter of the geniuses have been fully vaccinated. In fact, the least vaccinated counties are also the sites of the biggest Trump landslides:

• Campbell Co.- 23% fully vaccinated (86.8% Trump)

• Crook Co.- 24% fully vaccinated (88.6% Trump)

• Niobrara Co.- 24% fully vaccinated (85.5% Trump)

There are no polls showing a reelection path for Liz Cheney, especially now that Trump has endorsed a candidate against her. In fact, there is no poll that shows Cheney with even a quarter of the vote. That she had raised-- as of June 30-- a gargantuan $3,418,128.64 is of no consequence. Nor are endorsements from George W. Bush, Jeb Bush, John Boehner, Cindy McCain, Paul Ryan, Wyoming Senator John Barrasso and a gaggle of anti-Trump Republicans including senators Bill Cassidy, Joni Ernst, Susan Collins and Congressman Adam Kinzinger.

The media paints this as a tough battle instead of a foregone conclusion. "Allies of Rep. Liz Cheney," wrote Tal Axelrod at The Hill this morning, "are starting to make a concerted effort to boost her reelection bid as she wages the fight of her political life against a Trump-backed challenger. Former President George W. Bush will hold a fundraiser for Cheney next month, as reported Wednesday, handing her a boost with the traditional wing of the GOP. But backers say they expect more Republicans aligned with Cheney’s brand of conservatism to get off the bench to help her in a primary knife fight against attorney and erstwhile ally Hariet Hageman [who Trump endorsed, not knowing that she had warned in 2016 that he was a weak candidate to saddle the GOP with because he's "racist and xenophobic"]. 'I'll knock on doors, I'll make calls if I have to, I'll use my social media presence, professionally and personally,' said state Rep. Landon Brown (R), a Cheney ally. 'I think it's going to be much more than many people anticipate,' he added. 'You're gonna see a lot of the people that are out there that do support her and recognize her value…And it's just going to be a matter of who shows up more and who can get more people to the polls.'"

This is a state filled with the dumbest people in America-- highest percentage of Trump votes/lowest vaccine rate-- and there is no contest. A fundraiser in Dallas hosted by Bush and Karl Rove is not going to mean an extra 5 votes for Liz Cheney, neither will an extra few hundred thousand dollars to burn on one of America's least expensive media markets. McConnell and Lindsey Graham have both contributed to her reelection campaign. That's not going to help her either.

There's no lane for this outside of the Beltway

Axelrod, tasked with making the race worthy of attention, reported that "Allies say that help, and more, could be key to keeping her seat, both in raising the millions it will take to fend off Trump’s financial juggernaut and exciting her own voters." But this is a Trump vs Cheney contest and it really is no contest. Understatement of the electoral cycle: "While Cheney allies unanimously agree that Trump’s involvement produces significant headwinds for her reelection bid, some say his endorsement may be motivation to get some supporters in the game."

“Everybody here was just sitting around waiting to see who got picked…Now that everybody's had a little bit of time to sit back and watch, I think that she’ll start to see some things moving,” said Mark Christensen, a former Campbell County commissioner and a Cheney ally. “I think that you'll probably start to see some of that happening in the next couple of months.”

Cheney’s team is expected to time announcements for endorsements and fundraisers meticulously to maximize their effect against the Trump-led onslaught. But the calendar is one thing she has on her side.

Wyoming does not host its primary until August, giving Cheney time to both fortify her defenses and allow as much time as possible to pass between her controversial impeachment vote and when voters will cast their ballots, something that allies say could be key in the primary.

“I think that the ire against her is cooling with time. If the election had been March of 2021, right after the impeachment, she'd be gone,” Christensen said.

Observers speculated that Cheney won’t bring out her big endorsements until the summer, when primary voters begin paying attention to the nominating contest.

But beyond nailing down the timing of when Cheney’s allies come out in force, her backers are torn over who is best to come to her defense.

Some say support from people like Bush could be significant, noting the former president’s sway and affiliation with a less volatile brand of conservative politics.

“Individuals like President Bush stepping up and speaking out helps. That traditionally is what Wyoming voters believe in, that flavor of politics where it’s based on policies, not personalities,” McGinley said.

However, others warn that bringing in too many outsiders could hurt Cheney and reinforce the perception that she is too focused on national politics.

“Her fundraising in Texas will offend people because it's not in Wyoming, and it's out of state and all this stuff,” said Paul Bertoglio, the current chair of the Natrona County Board of Commissioners. “Well, as I like to when they bring that up, I always like to point out, Donald Trump doesn't have anything in the state of Wyoming that I'm aware of, any businesses, and yet he's just doing the exact same thing.”

Bertoglio predicted that some of Wyoming’s statewide elected officials could come in to boost Cheney-- even if it risks angering Trump-- and that people more familiar with her conservative voting record need to take center stage over people like Bush.

“As elected officials, we all make a vote or two that just absolutely puts your constituents over the top and they say, ‘I will never vote for you again.’ And yet when they look at your whole record and you put that up against somebody else, they go like, ‘well, you know what, maybe I can look past that.’ And I think she has to bring in those people that say, ‘wait a minute, you have to look at her whole record,’” he said.

“I think they will,” Bertoglio added when asked if Wyoming lawmakers would make endorsements against Trump’s chosen candidate. “They know that she did a tremendous job…And you go down the vote, other than a couple of things voting against what Trump did, she is not a RINO or any of that.”

Still, the race is likely to be a magnet for the remaining national figures who oppose Trump since the primary is being interpreted as a test of his power.

“We'll certainly see more of this,” GOP strategist Doug Heye said. “I don't think we know if it'll be enough. I think we won't know until the primary, but very clearly, this is as much about one member of Congress as what the direction of the Republican Party is moving forward.”

Trump’s allies, meanwhile, boast that Cheney is destined for defeat, saying that the marginalization of Cheney’s brand of conservatism on top of the former president’s expected heavy involvement in the race will be too much to overcome.

“There is no Cheney wing, just a Cheney sliver of the party that is dying out fast,” said one adviser to Wyoming Values PAC, an outside group opposing Cheney.

“She is the definition of walking dead. She knows she's toast.”

Allies say it remains to be seen whether help from Cheney’s wing of the party will be enough to prevent a primary defeat. While some insist a “silent majority” supports her, they concede she still faces steep headwinds against Trump’s opposition.

“I don't know just because in Wyoming, the silent majority remains silent,” McGinley said. “It's hard to get a feel for that.”

The special select committee could discover a tape of Trump personally giving orders for a coup and demanding his supporters kill more policemen and it wouldn't change a thing. We're talking about Republican voters in Wyoming, not Republican voters in Massachusetts. (By the way, Massachusetts' Republican governor, Charlie Baker, has also endorsed Cheney. It won't bring her a single vote.) Yesterday she was on 60 Minutes saying she was wrong to oppose gay marriage. That's not going to bring her any votes either, not in Wyoming. She told Leslie Stahl that she's "not ready to cede the Republican party. And I'm not ready to cede it to the voices of extremism, to the voices of antisemitism, and the voices of racism, and there certainly are some in our party. But I'm going to fight for this party. I believe in it." Maybe that would work in Maryland. Maybe... but not in Wyoming. Cheney is either delusional or dishonest.