If Inflation Still Matters To Voters, The GOP Is Going To Suffer At The Polls Next Year

Biden Was At Least Bringing Prices Down— Trump's Policies Are Increasing Them

This past November, many Americans trying to make sense out of Trump’s win over even a candidate as weak as Kamala Harris, turned to pre-election polling that showed voters extremely concerned over the economy— rising prices particularly.  

• Gallup: Economy Most Important Issue to 2024 Presidential Vote

• Pew: “As concerns around the state of the economy and inflation continue, about eight-in-ten registered voters (81%) say the economy will be very important to their vote in the 2024 presidential election.

Trump campaigned heavily on high prices. Perhaps not as important as the bullshit about transgender students playing girls sports, economic messages were still central to his campaign, leveraging widespread voter frustration with the cost of living. Throughout the campaign, he repeatedly pointed to rising prices— particularly for groceries, gas and housing— as a key failure of the Biden administration, framing it as an issue that directly impacted everyday Americans. Trump capitalized on high prices by promising to “end the inflation nightmare” and bring prices down quickly. He frequently highlighted specific examples, such as claiming, dishonestly, that grocery prices had doubled or tripled under Biden, and tied these to broader economic discontent. In speeches and media appearances, like his October 2024 town hall in Pennsylvania where he assured voters, “We're going to get your prices down,” he positioned himself as the candidate who could restore affordability. By July 2024, he was claiming— again, dishonestly, that groceries were up 50% and gasoline up 60% under Biden, amplifying this message to his base. His messaging resonated with voters who prioritized immediate relief over technical solutions. Economists and opponents warned that policies like mass deportations and universal tariffs would actually increase inflation, but these critiques were too abstract and complex for the MAGA base or even voters simpleminded enough to believe anything Trump ever said, and did little to dent his appeal. Voter sentiment, as reflected in exit polls where inflation-focused voters favored Trump nearly two-to-one over Kamala, suggests his relentless focus on high consumer prices was a winning strategy.

Yesterday, Scott Lincicome, brought up an interesting point: Trump and his GOP puppets don’t seem to think consumer prices are all that important any longer. He wrote that “After spending most of the 2024 campaign blaming Democrats for inflation and insisting that tariffs don’t increase prices, Donald Trump and his allies have a new economic message: High prices are good. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, for example, recently admitted to the Economic Club of New York that inflation-weary Americans could see a ‘one-time price adjustment’ from Trump’s tariffs, but he quickly added that ‘access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American dream.’ Representative Mark Alford of Missouri told CNN, ‘We all have a role to play in this to rightsize our government, and if I have to pay a little bit more for something, I’m all for it to get America right again.’ And Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick put his own spin on the argument, telling NBC News that, yes, prices on imports will rise, but American-made goods will get cheaper, and that’s what matters. (In fact, tariffs generally lead to price increases for imported and domestic goods, because the latter face less foreign-price competition.)”

Overall, studies conservatively estimate that American households save thousands of dollars a year from the lower prices, increased variety, and global competition fomented by international trade. This increased purchasing power means not only that Americans have more “stuff” but also that their inflation-adjusted incomes are higher. As we just learned the hard way, bigger numbers on your paycheck mean nothing if you’re forced to spend even more on the things you need and want. In fact, one of the big reasons Americans’ inflation-adjusted wages have climbed in recent decades is that the exorbitant prices of things such as housing, health care, and education have been offset by significant declines for tradable goods such as toys, clothing, and consumer electronics. Money left over can also be saved for a rainy day or invested in things such as education and retirement.

We’ll soon see how much rising prices means to Trump voters. There’s little doubt now that congressional Republicans are willing to walk the plank with Trump— and the whole House is up for reelection next year. Yesterday, John Bresnahan and Andrew Desiderio reported that the makeup of the GOP conference is very different this year. They wrote that 150 of the 218 current 218 House Republicans (69%) “have been elected since 2016, when Trump won his first term. Recently-elected GOP senators and the conservative wing of the Senate Republican Conference are fully loyal to Trump. The Bush-era leaders of the GOP from 2017, Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell, are gone or going. The current Republican leadership is 100% pro-Trump. Speaker Mike Johnson wouldn’t have his job if it wasn’t for Trump, while Thune must pay tribute daily to the Trumpian worldview. Now think about this— the entire House Republican Conference voted to raise the debt limit, which is stunning. Virtually the entire House Republican Conference voted for a CR as well, something that cost Kevin McCarthy and John Boehner their jobs. Trump is firing tens of thousands of federal workers overnight. He’s gutting federal agencies and departments, which will directly affect all of these GOP lawmakers’ constituents. When protests broke out at Republican town halls over this, the House GOP leadership told their members to stop holding town halls instead of calling on Trump to change direction.”

There is no meaningful— or even semi-meaningful— protest within the Republican conference. Other than Kentucky crackpot Thomas Massie, even the grumblers, fold their tents and back Trump when push comes to shove. My guess is that Trump’s policies are putting two dozen of them in serious trouble. Only reliably atrocious DCCC recruitment is likely to  save GOP House incumbents like Dave Schweikert (AZ), Juan Ciscomani (AZ), David Valadao (CA), Ken Calvert (CA), Kevin Kiley (CA), Young Kim (CA), Gabe Evans (CO), Anna Paulina Luna (FL), Laurel Lee (FL), Maria Salazar (FL), Cory Mills (FL), Carlos Gimenez (FL), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA), Zach Nunn (IA), Tom Barrett (MI), John James (MI), Bill Huizenga (MI), Don Bacon (NE), Tom Kean (NJ), Mike Lawler (NY), Ryan Mackenzie (PA), Scott Perry (PA), Rob Bresnahan (PA), Brian Fitzpatrick (PA), Monica De La Cruz (TX), Jen Kiggans (VA), Rob Wittman (VA), Brian Steil (WI) and Derrick Van Orden (WI).