Who'd Laugh At Ron DeSantis When He Hands Lara Trump Rubio's Senate Seat?
Last month Florida voters came out strong for Trump— 6,110,125 (56.1%) to 4,683,038 (43.0%). You know that mandate Trump claims he got? Florida is where he got it. Kamala won just 6 counties out of 67. Trump flipped Miami-Dade, Osceola, Hillsborough, Pinellas, Duval and Seminole counties and performed nearly 10% better than he had in 2020. It was the biggest win for a presidential candidate since 1988 when George HW Bush beat Dukakis.
The state’s sadly moribund Democratic Party promised it would make gains in the state legislature. It didn’t. In fact, on net, it lost a seat, bringing down the party's pathetic caucus to 35 members (as opposed to 85 Republicans)— and that was before Susan Valdés jumped the fence last week and decided she was a Republican after all… having just been reelected to the Houses as a Democrat and then lost a bid to chair the Hillsborough County Democratic Party a few days ago.
Meanwhile, John Morgan, the drunken ambulance chaser who is one of the state’s top Democratic political contributors, has been teasing a run for governor on a new party he wants to start, “the Capitalist Party,” with either neo-fascist Polk County sheriff Grady Judd or child rapist Matt Gaetz as his running mate. (Morgan's platform: pro-pot, pro-prostitution, anti-transgender— and that thing about Gaetz is not a joke... well, it is a joke, but it's a real joke, not a made up joke.)
The most book-banning state in the U.S. is a complete mess. And now Trump is trying to get his daughter-in-law into the U.S. Senate. He nominated an arch enemy, Senator Marco Rubio, who once famously made fun of Trump’s small genitals, to be Secretary of State— a temporary position— to open the seat and has been trying to leverage DeSantis into giving the appointment to Lara Trump. He even seemed to dangle a job as Secretary of Defense in front of DeSantis, who will soon be termed out of his job and would like to run for president in 2028.
But, wrote Aaron Blake yesterday, the governor of the most cockamamie state has a dilemma. “The situation presents DeSantis with a potential gift, but also a very evident likely dilemma. The easy call would seem to be giving Trump what he wants. That’s because there are not just very real potential pitfalls for DeSantis if he bucks Trump, but also because there are benefits to pleasing Trump and his base for DeSantis’s political ambitions. But there are also downsides for the Florida governor.”
If he appoints Lara Trump to the Senate, DeSantis could also risk looking like he caved to a man he’s ridiculed others for caving to. Picking Lara Trump would involve passing over many experienced Florida pols for a nepotistic choice who hasn’t put in the work in that state and whose political career is really only nine months old. (The only reason it’s even that old: Trump himself back in March picked his daughter-in-law to co-chair the Republican National Committee, a position she recently left.)
And most potentially troubling, it could look a lot like a quid pro quo in which Trump would have exchanged something— possibly even dangling a Cabinet selection— for the appointment.
…Few politicians have demonstrated as much talent for making their foes regret their life decisions; Trump is a career-killer without compare for his fellow Republicans. What better way to tie yourself to the Trump political brand than to hand a Trump a Senate seat?
Despite losing that 2024 campaign, DeSantis is still considered a strong potential 2028 presidential candidate. And even as Trump will be on the way out by then, there’s no question there will still be a premium on appealing to— or at least not alienating— that MAGA base.
But also consider how this all would look.
It was less than a year ago, after all, that then-presidential candidate DeSantis had some choice words about Trump’s transactional nature and the Republicans who try too hard to curry favor with him.
“He’s running a campaign about putting himself and his issues first,” DeSantis said. “That’s what he cares about. You can be the most worthless Republican in America, but if you kiss the ring, he’ll say you’re wonderful.
“You can be the strongest, most dynamic, successful Republican and conservative in America, but if you don’t kiss that ring, then he’ll try to trash you. You know what? You deserve a nominee that’s going to put you first, not himself first.”
Imagine how it would look if less than a year later he did something that would be so obviously intended to kiss Trump’s ring as appointing Trump’s own family member to Congress. It would be one thing if Lara Trump were an established Florida Republican in good standing with a tried-and-true track record. But her lack of a résumé would make it abundantly clear what this was really about.
DeSantis has also, to this point, demonstrated at least a little pride when it comes to Trump. Yes, he endorsed Trump when he dropped out. But he also went on to criticize Trump’s campaign. And even his Republican National Convention speech this summer was mostly about attacking Democrats rather than espousing the greatness of Trump. The governor is hardly the first Republican to massage an about-face on Trump (see Rubio, for one).
Politically, it might be smart to appoint Lara Trump. But it surely wouldn’t look like strength.
Another factor is the possibility that appointing Trump’s daughter-in-law could harm the GOP over the long haul. If they want to keep the job, the appointee will have to run for reelection in both 2026 and 2028. Florida is now red enough that it seems any Republican could hold the seat. But you never know. She could also potentially face a primary against some of the ambitious Florida pols who would have been passed over for her.
And then there is the potential for such a move to look even worse, even beyond just the raw politics. Not only did we recently learn that Trump contacted DeSantis about Lara Trump, we also learned that Trump talked to DeSantis about potentially being a replacement for his defense secretary pick, Pete Hegseth, if Hegseth’s embattled nomination falls apart.
Even if there isn’t an explicit quid pro quo in which DeSantis would trade a Lara Trump appointment for a Cabinet nomination, what if DeSantis announces Lara Trump and then Hegseth does falter, and Trump falls back on DeSantis?
Even the mere fact that Trump is talking to DeSantis about both of these things right now could sure lead one— potentially DeSantis himself— to believe they are related. And Trump has already gotten himself in trouble by very suggestively mixing official business with personal politics.
All of which is to say, there are a number of conceivable ways this could go sideways, even as it could clearly net out as a benefit to DeSantis’s political career.
Yesterday, Hannah Knowles and Michael Scherer speculated that DeSantis might defy Trump. He wanted to be Secretary of Defense as much as Romney wanted to be Secretary of State in 2016. Trump hates them and played them both. So... now that Trump isn’t offering him the Pentagon as a quid pro quo, people around DeSantis say he’s leaning towards giving the seat to an actual Floridian— and someone loyal to him— either former state House speaker Jose Oliva or current Attorney General Ashley Moody.
MAGAt slime, like Randy Fine (the self-proclaimed “Hebrew Hammer,” an out and out fascist running for Congress) and crackpot Anna Paulina Lun,a have been publicly pressuring DeSantis, as have Rick Scott and Alabama Senator Katie Britt. DeSantis is probably not thrilled about that. Knowles and Scherer wrote that “He is interested in serving as defense secretary and would likely be open to other high-level positions in the Trump administration down the line, a second person familiar with his thinking said. It’s possible that he will run for president again in 2028, the person added, but he’s unlikely to challenge a well-positioned JD Vance and has mentioned that— if he left public office— he would enjoy having his own TV show or radio show discussing politics. Some DeSantis allies viewed the Defense Department as an ideal next step for the governor and one that would keep his political options open... But Republicans who supported DeSantis’s presidential bid are cognizant that, for now, Vance is Trump’s heir apparent and has strong backing from the Trump family.”
If DeSantis doesn't appoint Lara to the Senate, he had better pray for the next 4 hurricane seasons to be mild.
Both Morgan and Pam Bondi are products of UF machine student politics. I'm a Chicago native, and, as I used to say when Morgan & I were law school contemporaries, the main way that UF student politics differ from Cook County politics is that no patronage jobs ar involved. Morgan was legendary for his sharp elbows in that training ground.
While I understand Morgan's disdain for the FlaDems, what he actually stands for anymore is hard to figure out. While his firm has hired pols in the past, his apparent interest in hiring Gaetz is a new low. He hired Crist, for example, when Crist was between jobs, but Crist is personable and had not been under criminal investigation. I…