How Would You Feel If The Democratic Establishment Eased Out Biden And Shoved In Hillary?

Between Trump & Hillary, Who Would AIPAC Prefer?

Hillary Clinton will have turned 77 by the time we hit the polls in November. There are some people who want her to run against Trump again. After all, she took 65,853,514 votes (48.2%) to his 62,984,828 (46.1%) and the states that put him over the top— Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia and Arizona— are all states that would be up for grabs in November, as would be, possibly, North Carolina. A case can be made for her to replace Biden as the nominee and Pablo O’Hana, a European political strategist, made it yesterday: Why We Need Hillary More Than Ever. [Disclaimer: I didn’t vote for her in 2016 and I wouldn’t vote for her in 2024.] O’Hana’s first argument is that “Clinton is younger than both Biden and Trump. Given the current furor over age, this is not a trivial fact; energy and stamina are equated with capability.” Chronological age is not a predictor of much and we know that neither Biden nor Trump is fit to president according to biological age— more of a measure of function— and we don’t know much about Hillary’s biological age.

What we do know is that cognitive abilities tend to start declining subtly in the even before someone turns 30! The rate and specific aspects of cognitive decline varies drastically among individuals. Here’s how different cognitive abilities might change over time:

• Processing Speed (the time it takes to perform mental tasks) is usually the first cognitive ability to decline, typically starting in the mid-to-late 20s.

• Working Memory (the ability to hold and manipulate information for short periods) may begin to decline in the 30s.

• Episodic Memory (the ability to recall specific events and experiences) usually starts to decline in the 30s and 40s.

• Semantic Memory (involves knowledge of facts and concepts) tends to remain stable or even improve until much later in life, usually around the 60s or 70s.

• Sustained Attention (the ability to maintain focus on a task) usually starts to decline slightly in the 30s and 40s.

• Selective Attention (the ability to focus on specific information while ignoring distractions) tends to decline in the 40s and 50s.

• Executive Function (which includes skills such as planning, problem-solving, and multitasking) often start to show decline in the 40s and 50s.

• Language (vocabulary and verbal knowledge) tend to remain stable or improve with age, often peaking in the 60s or later. However, word retrieval and verbal fluency usually starts to decline in the 50s and 60s.

• Spatial Abilities (ability to visualize and manipulate objects in space) can begin to decline in the late 30s and 40s.

Let's keep in mind that factors like genetics, lifestyle, education, and overall health can significantly influence the trajectory of cognitive aging. Moreover, many cognitive functions can be maintained or even improved through activities that stimulate the brain, such as learning new skills, engaging in social activities and maintaining physical health.

Now let’s look at an average 77 year old woman. Her processing speed in very likely slower than in her younger years. This means tasks requiring quick thinking or rapid responses will take longer. Her working memory will be reduced and she’s likely to find it more challenging to hold and manipulate information temporarily. There also is probably a noticeable decline in episodic memory, especially in recalling recent events or forming new memories. Long-term memories, particularly those from earlier life, are often better preserved. There’s a good chance her semantic memory is OK with knowledge of facts, vocabulary and general information still strong. Sustained attention is diminished, making it harder to maintain focus on a single task for extended periods. Same with selective attention, making it tough ti filter out distraction. Executive function is a problem with abilities such as planning, problem-solving and multitasking generally less sharp. Forget about complex tasks requiring significant mental effort. There’s likely to be a difficulty with finding words and speech will be slower, but comprehension and use of language probably remains strong.

Should a 77 year old run for president? I’m 77 and many of my friend are around that age. I just spent 2 weeks in Amsterdam with friends from my 20s who are now in their 70s and 80s. And I don’t think so. The presidency requires sharp cognitive functions, including decision-making, problem-solving, and memory. Bernie seems to have it together but significant impairments are likely to have started setting in for most everyone else, as they have for Trump and Biden, both of whom refuse to recognize it, making themselves into very serious dangers to society. The average age of U.S. presidents at inauguration has been around 55 years. Chronologically, Biden, Trump and Hillary are too old for a 2025 inauguration.

Let’s not forget that cognitive and physical abilities vary widely among individuals. Some people in their 80s remain highly capable (like Bernie), while others— like Trump and Biden—  experience significant decline earlier. Age limits for other high-stakes positions (e.g., airline pilots, judges) are often set based on the average age-related decline in specific abilities relevant to the job. For pilots, the mandatory retirement age is 65. And while older candidates bring valuable experience and wisdom, that has to be balanced with the potential for cognitive and physical decline. Setting a specific age limit is tough but, considering the cognitive and physical demands of the presidency, an upper age limit in the mid-to-late 70s might be reasonable, which would eliminate Trump, Biden… and Hillary, even if O’Hana wants to call her “a ready-made replacement and babble on about how “She possesses an unparalleled resume and an unmatched depth of experience… Her extensive background in domestic and international affairs is not just impressive; at a time when global politics are increasingly volatile and complex, her experience is priceless.”

He claims that “there are millions of voters [millions? really?] who, with a healthy dose of hindsight, regret not supporting her in 2016. This buyer’s remorse reflects her undimmed capability and a broader disillusionment with Trump’s divisive rhetoric. These swing-back voters are crucial to winning; Clinton can turn past regrets into proactive support by being a powerful reminder of the stakes of straying in 2024. And according to a poll released in the wake of Biden’s disastrous debate, Clinton is already favored to take down Trump, 43 percent to 41 percent… The Democrats have a seasoned, savvy and adaptable candidate in Hillary Clinton. Without the burden of incumbency, she can run on a platform of stability, restoration and progress, with the credibility of her lifetime in public service and proven leadership. In her candidacy, we might just find our best chance to retain the White House and transcend the gladiatorial spectacle of politics.”