One day after Trump had his J-6 cases dismissed, Daniel Ball was arrested for pending federal gun charges. It wasn’t new crime he had committed— but those will be in all likelihood coming soon enough. The Proud Boys, dozens of whom who have been released from prison, are feeling cocky and the Oath Keepers and all the domestic terrorist groups are feeling their oats and feeling like Trump is their very own Führer/personal Jesus.
Ankush Khadori predicts the clemency for 1,500 J-6 convicts, especially those imprisoned for violent offenses, will come around to slap Trump— and Republicans backing him— in the mouth. “The recipients of Trump’s incredible generosity,” he wrote, “included Enrique Tarrio, a onetime leader of the Proud Boys who was convicted of sedition and serving a 22-year sentence; Stewart Rhodes, the founder of the Oath Keepers, who was serving an 18-year sentence for his involvement; and about 600 people who had been charged with assaulting or resisting law enforcement officers, including more than 170 who were charged with using a deadly or dangerous weapon or seriously injuring an officer. Plenty of people were convicted of nonviolent offenses, but the notion that Jan. 6 was peaceful or a “day of love,” as Trump called it, is an abject lie. If history is any guide, this is not likely to be the last time that you hear about these people… Trump— and the Republican Party— may come to regret the political costs of this decision.”
For starters, Trump’s blanket pardon is unpopular, and it could help to frame early perceptions of his return to the White House. After the election, multiple polls reported that somewhere around two-thirds of Americans opposed Trump’s promise to pardon the Jan. 6 defendants, including about two-thirds of independents.
It is not hard to understand why: Despite the best efforts of Trump and many of his political allies, most Americans have not forgotten about what happened that day, and most Americans have rejected the the fantasyland version of events that Trump has sought to portray. That is why Trump’s approval rating collapsed after Jan. 6, even though it has since recovered. That is why surveys showed most Americans wanted Trump to stand trial in Washington in the Justice Department’s prosecution alleging that he tried to steal the 2020 election in the run-up to the Jan. 6 riot. That is why most Americans repeatedly told pollsters that they thought Trump was guilty of criminal conduct. And that is why about half of the country said that Trump should have gone to prison if he had been convicted in the election subversion case.
In the wake of the election, many Republicans have tried to claim that the results were somehow an all-purpose vindication of Trump and a repudiation of the Justice Department’s long-delayed efforts to hold Trump accountable for his alleged misconduct in connection with the 2020 election. The much better explanation is that a critical mass of voters— rather than signing on to Trump’s claims on this point— decided to vote for him because they did not like the direction of the country under the Biden-Harris administration. These positions may seem to be in tension or perhaps even irrational, but they are not.
Trump’s mass pardon has also created a political problem for many of his fellow Republicans. He has once again cut the legs out from under his own vice president, who said less than two weeks ago, “If you committed violence on that day, obviously you shouldn’t be pardoned.” Plenty of other Republicans took the same position that JD Vance did and will now have to twist themselves into knots explaining their past comments and their vocal defenses of Trump, who has once again made them look credulous and foolish.
That is just the short-term fallout. The potential for political backlash will linger for months and years to come. That’s because the Jan. 6 defendants are not just going to evaporate into society.
Trump has once again sent a disturbing message to his supporters: If you engage in political violence on my behalf, I will protect you. Tarrio, Rhodes and their associates should feel emboldened, and there is no telling what they will do with Trump now firmly behind them.
Even setting aside the prospect of further political violence, you can safely expect a fair amount of recidivism among those who were convicted— particularly the defendants convicted of violent conduct. That means that we may see and read stories in the years to come involving Jan. 6 defendants pardoned by Trump who went on to commit more— and potentially more serious— crimes.
This is not idle speculation. Several people who received pardons or commutations in the final days of Trump’s first term went on to be charged with committing more crimes.
This is also not unusual. According to the U.S. Sentencing Commission, about two-thirds of defendants convicted of violent crimes are rearrested within eight years of their release. They also recidivate more quickly than nonviolent offenders— with a median time to rearrest of about 16 months. And, not surprisingly, they are rearrested for violent offenses at higher rates than defendants who were convicted of nonviolent offenses, with roughly a quarter of them rearrested for assault.
…[G]iven the large number of people convicted of violent offenses in connection with Jan. 6, some very rough back-of-the-envelope math suggests that a sizable number of them could go on to commit more crimes in the years to come.
Trump and the Republicans who back this effort will not be able to hide from those developments if they come to pass.
On the substance, Trump has set a deeply disturbing and politically corrupt precedent. He abused the pardon power (again) and has effectively endorsed political violence carried out in his name (again).
The political fallout of the pardons is also worth keeping a close eye on. Trump is at the start of his second term, but it’s his last one; the Republicans have a razor-thin majority in the House; and the 2026 midterms will be here before we know it. Real risks exist for the GOP both now and in the future.
Trump would no doubt like his mass pardon to be the last word on Jan. 6 and its legacy. He may not be so lucky.
New Ipsos polling yesterday shows that 58% of Americans oppose Trump pardons for the J-6 convicts. 29% seem to approve. Stephen Collison was reflecting what many of us feel— why do Trump’s first couple of days in the White House already feel like a full term… or at least months? Is it the frenetic pace of scattershot chaos that tires people out? Collison called it “an incessant assault on the senses, adding that “Trump’s velocity is deliberate. So much happens, there’s rarely time to reflect on the gravity of one event. Trivia and world-changing new policies get caught in the whirl. Trump is in the middle of it all, conducting the cacophony and turning up the noise whenever he wants more attention… Even when Trump is only trolling the media or Democrats, that’s fine: his base voters who distrust the establishment sent him back to Washington to infuriate and obfuscate… Nightly compilations of liberals becoming discombobulated over his latest outbursts, meanwhile, fill fawning conservative news shows.”
Trump has only done the easy part, successfully orchestrating an early rollout. Domestic and international crises lie in wait for a president who has been found wanting in such situations in the past. It’s one thing to sign hundreds of executive orders— some of which are already facing court challenges— but real change can only be cemented by passing laws.
The treacherous task that Trump faces in passing real, lasting change came into focus on Tuesday at his meeting with top Republican congressional leaders. There still does not seem to be a consensus on whether to proceed with one massive bill to push through his agenda or two, smaller vehicles. Either way, nothing is guaranteed given the minuscule GOP majority in the House of Representatives.
The first two days have, however, revealed some important trends in the new Trump presidency.
The shock and awe of countless executive actions hints at a far more professional White House operation than his chaotic first term. New White House chief of staff Susie Wiles was credited with adding structure to the Trump campaign while not being able to temper his wild, sometimes self-destructive improvisational instincts. Perhaps she can do the same in the West Wing.
And unlike during his first few days in office the last time around, Trump knows what he wants to do and how to do it. His good humor after the adulation of his second inauguration— so-far undimmed by inevitable political setbacks— has probably helped too.
Trump said something very revealing Monday in a speech to supporters about last year’s election.
“They all said inflation was the number one issue. I said I disagree. I think people coming into our country from prisons and from mental institutions (is the issue) for the people that I know. And I made it my number one,” Trump said. (There’s no evidence to support his claims about prisons and institutions, but his political point still stands). Trump went on: “I talked about inflation too. But you know, how many times can you say an apple has doubled in cost? I’d say it, and I’d hit it hard, but then I go back to the fact that we don’t want criminals coming into our country.”
Trump is acting on that belief again with an aggressive set of executive actions laying the foundation for his mass deportation program. He’s declared a national emergency that could result in the military going to the border. In a stunning move on Tuesday, he stripped churches and schools of protection from possible ICE arrests. He’s also made it harder for migrants to legally enter the United States by closing down a border app.
If one goal of Trump’s policy is to create a climate of fear, it may be working. “ICE officers are back to doing their job,” the president’s border czar Tom Homan told CNN on Tuesday, revealing how the deportation operation could quickly expand if cities don’t help track fugitive criminals. “We will find him, but when we find him, he may be with others. Others that don’t have a criminal conviction are in the country illegally. They will be arrested too because we’re not going to strike.”
Immigration is a crowd-pleasing issue for his base, but Trump is taking a risk by prioritizing it since the cost of groceries and housing was one he vowed to fix during the campaign and was especially resonant among swing voters. Trump doesn’t have to run again, but he needs to maintain his coalition to avoid big losses for the GOP in next year’s midterm elections.
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