Most counties across the country have federal workers but especially in Maryland, Virginia and West Virginia, the three within commuting district and the three with significant presence of federal facilities. The slashing to federal employees by Musk and his merry band of incels is going to impact those counties hardest. But politically, it will have the greatest impact— not in Maryland where Democrats dominate or in West Virginia where Republicans dominate— in Virginia, which is more swingy.
Yesterday, Olivia Diaz wrote specifically how the gutting the federal employees may impact this year’s gubernatorial election. The Attorney General, Lieutenant Governor and the House of Delegates will also be elected, as will, a year later, all the Members of Congress. Diaz wrote that 145,000 federal workers are Virginia residents and many more are government contractors
“Government workers are struggling all across the country— and there’s a large density of federal workers in Virginia,” said Kevin Cooper, political director with the American Federation of Government Employees, in a statement. “These folks are dedicated civil servants who are being put out of work, and I have no doubt that they’ll be looking to the upcoming elections to see who speaks out in their defense and is willing to champion pro-worker, pro-union issues.”
Whether that view is widely shared will be tested in Virginia, where a former Democratic congresswoman, Abigail Spanberger, and the Republican lieutenant governor, Winsome Earle-Sears, are the leading contenders for governor. The primaries are in June.
Earle-Sears said taxpayers do not want to pay more than is needed for their government, and that what Trump is doing should come as no surprise.
“The president was elected fully explaining what he was going to do,” she said. “He didn’t hide anything from anyone.”
The new administration has offered financial incentives to federal workers as part of a deferred resignation program orchestrated by [co-president] Elon Musk. It has begun layoffs around the world and, only after court intervention, rescinded a plan for a broad pause on federal grants and loans. Legal challenges continue to changes that have affected community health centers and other essential services in Virginia.
In Richmond, Democrat Don Scott, the state House of Delegates speaker, said a new bipartisan House committee will size up the impact on the federal workforce. He said political leaders should use “every tool in our toolbox to combat this chaos and protect Virginians’ livelihoods.”
Earle-Sears, meanwhile, said she backed Trump’s effort to take inventory of federal spending.
“The president, if I’m understanding right, what he’s doing is he’s assessing,” she said in an interview. “He’s making an audit of who’s doing what, how are they doing it, where are they doing it and how are they supposed to be doing it? Is it according to the law? Can we make some savings?”
That aligns with a recent comment by Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin that voters had backed Trump’s campaign promises and he was now working to fulfill them.
State Republican lawmakers widely share that sentiment.
In a heated Senate debate after Trump’s temporary spending freeze, Republican Mark Obenshain railed against Trump’s critics.
“Cry me a river if you want, but I am not persuaded that the world is coming to an end or the Earth is going to stop spinning on the axis upon which it is spinning.” Obenshain said.
Democrats are quick to point out that Trump has never carried Virginia in his three runs for the White House. And dating to 1977, every time a new president has been elected, the following year Virginia has voted in a governor from the opposite party.
Spanberger, who left Congress to run for governor and has built up a fundraising advantage, said Trump had contempt for federal jobs and that will cause damage across the state.
“Not only have I heard from federal employees in Virginia who are worried about their livelihoods and their ability to take care of their families, but I’ve also heard from business leaders, contractors, and small business owners who are rightfully nervous about what these attacks mean for the stability of our Commonwealth’s economy,” Spanberger said in a statement.
Mark Rozell, dean of George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government, said Republicans’ ability to connect with independent voters may be critical in the governor’s race. He said Earle-Sears would likely have to win over some voters who do not fully endorse Trump’s vision.
“Winsome Sears has a tough balancing act to perform because the GOP base will expect her to give her full support to the president, whereas swing voters will want her to show some independence from the president when it is in Virginia’s interests to do so,” Rozell said. He said Trump’s “Make America Great Again” base of supporters “is not big enough in Virginia to elect a governor. Youngkin knew that in 2021 and he successfully reached swing voters.” Rozell said Earle-Sears “will have a more difficult time with Trump in office.”
The state Democratic Party has released statements pressing Earle-Sears and other Republicans to answer whether they “support Trump unilaterally killing Virginia jobs.”
Earle-Sears isn’t having any of it.
“No one likes bureaucracy— we want to get things done,” she said. “And unfortunately, sometimes the government stands in the way of the people.”
Trump and Musk are handing the Democrats a gift, not just in the statewide races, but also in two congressional races— VA-01 and VA-02, where GOP incumbents Rob Wittman (who won last year by 12.8 points) and Jen Kiggans (who won last year by 3.8 points), each running against a worse than mediocre candidate— and in several Delegates races.
I’m guessing that Democratic candidates are going to oust Republicans in House of Delegates districts 57, which Kamala won by 9.4 points (David Owen), 71, which Kamala won by 4.7 points (Amanda Batten), 82, which Kamala won by points (Kim Taylor), 89, which Kamala won by 4.7 points (Baxter Ennis), 22, which Kamala won by 1.1 points (Ian Lovejoy), 30, which Trump won by 0.8 points (Geary Higgins) and 41, which Trump won by 4.5 points (Chris Obenshain, whose fascist-leaning cousin Mark did him no favors by demeaning federal workers who were laid off by Trump-Musk).
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