Steve Scalise Withdrew From The Speakers Race Last Night, Thowing The GOP Conference Into More Chaos

Troy Nehls (R-TX): “We are a broken conference”

Most people are busy with their own lives, too harried to think much about what's happening in Ukraine, Gaza or DC. They don't know who George Santos is-- nor Bob Menendez, Gym Jordan or Marjorie Traitor Greene. At best, they just gaze at the headlines with the morning coffee before rushing out to work-- maybe read the first paragraph. How's this for a first paragraph? "House Republicans are leaderless and rudderless as they go back to the drawing board to sketch a path out of the mess they’ve gotten themselves into." Or how about this one in this morning's New York Times? "Despite conflicts overseas and an approaching deadline to avert a government shutdown, Republicans are unable to rise above their internal divisions." Not a good look for a governing party for the 16% of the American electorate you could call genuine persuadable swing voters.

Unable to put together the votes he needed from inside the GOP-- and unwilling to form a kind of coalition with the Democrats-- last night Steve Scalise withdrew his name as a candidate for speaker. His connections to the Louisiana KKK and his role in the DC swamp both contributed to his failure. On announcing his withdrawal, he scolded his colleagues: “There’s some folks that really need to look in the mirror over the next couple of days and decide, are we going to get it back on track or are they going to try to pursue their own agenda. You can’t do both.” In a special edition of Punchbowl News last night, John Bresnahan, Jake Sherman, Max Cohen and Mica Soellner wrote about the context of Scalise ending his bid for the gavel, “plunging the chamber— and the Republican Party— even further into chaos.” He intends to stay on as majority leader, while the 4 reporters wrote that Gym Jordan is now the frontrunner for the job, as are, potentially Tom Emmer, Elise Stefanik and Patrick McHenry, a shockingly weak field. “All of them face the same challenge—how to cobble together a coalition of 217 votes in a conference that is bitterly divided along ideological, political, regional and personal lines.”

Earlier, John Bresnahan reported that one of his GOP sources told him that Scalise “is done. 100% done. We might never elect a speaker.” At the same time, Sahil Kapur reported that Alabama drama queen Mike Rogers left the GOP conference meeting “unhappy, says eight Republican ‘traitors’ (he used the word four times) have ‘paralyzed’ the House by removing McCarthy. He tells me Scalise has the same problems and GOP may NEVER get 217 votes for a Speaker.” Never’s a long time. Remember when Rogers tried to beat up Gaetz on the House floor during the McCarthy election? (The TV camera’s inadvertently caught Patruick McHenry trying to chat up another congressman’s teenage son sitting behind Gaetz.)

Even earlier, conservative ex-Republican Charlie Sykes wrote that the speakership is “the worst job in American politics— presiding over a fractious bunch of Republicans held hostage by (Ben Wittes’s phrase) the crazed slavering jackal caucus. But, since it’s Washington, there’s always someone who thinks that this time will be different. So now (maybe) it’s Steve Scalise’s turn.” At least he’s “less worse” that Jordan and “he beat out Jordan by a narrow margin of 113 to 99. In the Before Times, Republicans who understood how the system works, would then elect him speaker. But getting to 217 votes is no longer an easy matter in a party that apparently has no real interest in the business of actually governing.”

In fact, in the Before Times, this clown would have been expelled from Congress months ago:

“For the moment,” wrote Sykes, “let’s set aside the fanfiction that imagines that a handful of Republicans will bolt and elect Democrat Hakeem Jeffries as speaker. But we may see some other bizarre unusual scenarios play out. Maybe the GOP will find itself hopelessly gridlocked and decide to stick with acting-speaker Patrick McHenry; maybe moderates will ‘finally claim the leverage they need to defeat the extremists who have taken over the GOP.’” He quoted his colleague Liam Kerr: “It will only take one member to get the ball rolling. Could it be Ken Buck, who says he is refusing to vote for either Steve Scalise or Jim Jordan in the speakership contest because of the Big Lie? Or the unpredictable Nancy Mace, who joined the Gaetz rebellion last week and this week rejected Scalise as too racist? [That sent Marjorie Traitor Greene into a tailspin.] Or the Ukrainian-born Victoria Spartz, also uncommitted in the speakership contest, who is distraught that she ‘cannot save this Republic alone’ and has decided not to run for re-election? Or Don Bacon, who said the extremists are ‘destroying our conference and apparently want to be in the minority?’”

“Or maybe,” concluded Sykes, “we’ll just get more chaos as the clown car dumpster fire just keeps rolling on.” After yesterday’s meeting plenty of the nuts seemed like they were coming unglued. One Texas psychopath, Troy Nehls: “We are a broken conference.” Another total crackpot, Pennsylvania coupons plotter Mike Kelly: “This is the worst team I’ve ever been on.”

Last night, Ann Wagner (R-MO), who voted for Scalise, told Politico she won’t be voting for Jordan in the next round of the GOP Dysfunction Show. “Yesterday in conference, he gave the most disgraceful, ungracious— I can’t call it a concession speech— of all time. There were gasps in the room.”

Then Wagner recalled another moment that lost Jordan her support. It took place during a private meeting between Scalise and Jordan, less than an hour after the majority leader won the House GOP's internal speaker ballot. Wagner wasn't in the room, but she remained outside in Scalise's office and took in the immediate aftermath.

According to Wagner and other House Republicans briefed on the meeting, Jordan said to Scalise: “You get one ballot. And when you go down, you will nominate me.”

She said Scalise pushed back, arguing he had won by the conference rules, to which Jordan replied: “America wants me,” before storming out the door.

Earlier, Leigh Ann Caldwell and Marianna Sotomayor reported that Scalise’s bid for the speakership looks like it’s falling apart and some Republicans are looking for an alternative. “Some House Republicans have begun to privately conclude that Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) has little chance of being elected speaker of the House, throwing the fractured conference further into chaos as members potentially reignite the search for a nominee who can unite them… [I]deological, personal, and policy divisions that have plagued the conference for years quickly began to throw into question his chances of earning the 217 votes needed on the House floor to wield the speaker’s gavel. By late Wednesday evening, as Scalise struggled to gain sufficient support from members who backed Jordan or neither candidate in the closed-door vote, some Republicans began to lay the groundwork for an alternate candidate apart from Jordan and Scalise if Scalise formally steps aside.”

Emmer could be arrested at any time for takimng massive bribes from SBF

Majority Whip Tom Emmer (Sam Bankman Fried-MN) is calling members of the conference to make his pitch for majority leader, but some Republicans are encouraging him to run for speaker instead if Scalise steps aside, according to two lawmakers who have heard directly from Emmer. Multiple Republican aides familiar with the conversations that Emmer has had also confirmed that he will consider his options.

“I support Steve Scalise,” Emmer said Thursday. “Nobody should want that job.”

Hard-line conservatives had been advocating for Emmer once efforts to remove McCarthy as speaker began to formalize late last month. Some Republicans said that Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK), who chairs the Republican Study Committee, is mulling a bid for speaker, too, after announcing he would run as a “policy-focused conservative majority leader” on Wednesday.

…House Republicans’ failure to coalesce around a speaker has not only exposed their deep ideological divisions but also their inability to govern as the majority party. Since eight Republicans voted to oust McCarthy as speaker last week, the House has remained in a complete standstill. It cannot consider any legislation to aid Israel in its war against Hamas— something many lawmakers in both parties want— nor pass any appropriations bills to avoid a potential government shutdown in mid-November until a speaker is elected.

There also are growing calls from various ideological factions to extend the powers of Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry (R-NC) so the House can begin to address critical pieces of legislation. But such a move is unprecedented and would require changing the House rules— and might need Democratic support to do so. Current rules state that the temporary position exists only to facilitate and oversee the election of a speaker.

…Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) left a meeting with Scalise Wednesday evening and announced on Twitter, that she had secured numerous hard-right assurances from him in exchange for her vote. Many pragmatic and governing-centered Republicans privately stressed that such deals were unfair to the rest of the conference and made them question supporting Scalise.

“In Washington, D.C., you make false friends and true enemies,” one House Republican said. “And Steve Scalise has made way too many of both.”

But other GOP lawmakers, including Steve Womack (AR) and Tom Cole (OK), pushed back Thursday on the notion that Scalise was making any promises to people in exchange for their vote.

“No deals,” said Cole, who is chair of the House Rules Committee. “He’s meeting with members, but he’ll make it very clear today, ‘Look, I’m not cutting any deals with anybody.’”

By Thursday afternoon, Luna announced she would no longer be voting for Scalise, after all.

“There is no consensus candidate for speaker. We need to stay in Washington till we figure this out,” Luna wrote in a social media post.

…Jordan and his allies believe that if Scalise’s chance of becoming speaker weakens, it could help the Judiciary Committee chairman earn more members’ support, according to two people familiar with the thinking. But significant pockets of opposition exist for Jordan, too, with several conservatives telegraphing they remain undecided about him.

Several members who were leaning toward supporting Jordan were repelled when he missed the chance in Wednesday’s conference meeting to say he would back Scalise on the House floor and direct his allies to do the same. A spokesperson for the Judiciary chairman later clarified that Jordan would back Scalise and offer to give a nominating speech on his behalf, but lawmakers were not convinced.

Because there is now bad blood between Scalise and Jordan allies over how each group handled the outcome of the conference election, some Republicans noted it is not guaranteed that Scalise’s supporters would move to Jordan’s camp.

“Jordan doesn’t have a path, either,” one Republican lawmaker said.

[Mainstream conservatives] continue to feel it is particularly risky to vote for Jordan, who is closely aligned with Trump. While members do not know what kind of policy prescriptions Jordan would make the House vote on, swing-district Republicans worry that his MAGA bona fides and name recognition nationally could negatively affect their reelection chances.

Trump endorsed Jordan for speaker but stayed uncharacteristically quiet this week as the conference met and ultimately nominated Scalise. On Thursday, Trump told Fox News that it seemed unlikely either Scalise or Jordan could get to 217 votes. Trump also expressed reservations over Scalise’s health, as the Louisiana Republican undergoes treatment for multiple myeloma.

“Steve is a man that is in serious trouble from the standpoint of his cancer,” Trump said. “I mean, he’s got to get better for himself. I’m not talking about even country now.”

Luna, who changed her mind about supporting Scalise, suggested Thursday that there was a group of lawmakers who would back whomever Trump said they should for speaker.

Concerns about both Scalise’s and Jordan’s past controversies are starting to surface, too. Several swing-district Republicans have expressed renewed concern after becoming aware that Scalise spoke at a White supremacist rally in 2002 while serving as a state representative in Louisiana. When his attendance received attention in national news over a decade later, a Scalise adviser confirmed he spoke at an event founded by former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke, but said that he denied knowing that the event was affiliated with racists and neo-Nazis.

Jordan has been accused by several Ohio State wrestlers of knowing about sexual abuse allegations against the team’s doctor when he was a coach but doing nothing about it. An Ohio State independent investigation into the abuse did not make “conclusive determinations” about whether particular employees knew about the abuse by Richard Strauss, but a report issued later in 2019 said coaches did know.

Both Jordan and Scalise also voted against certifying the 2020 election of Joe Biden after the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the Capitol, but Republicans have not brought that up as a point of concern.

Many other moderate Republicans have expressed similar concerns over Scalise’s past, but they have not done the same with Jordan.

A crowded field for the speakership if Scalise ends his campaign could also jeopardize Jordan’s efforts.

Some staunch conservatives consider Emmer to be a candidate who could unite Republicans because he has relationships across the conference’s ideological spectrum. Since he has served in leadership only this year, far-right members do not view Emmer as an establishment figure, like McCarthy and Scalise. They also appreciate his bluntness, rather than what several members have described as McCarthy’s tendency to say what members want to hear. But others view Emmer, who has been in the House since 2015, as too inexperienced to be speaker.

Moderates in the conference, including those who represent swing districts that Biden won in 2020, like Emmer because he helped them get elected over the past two terms in which he served as the National Republican Campaign Committee chairman. Holding that post has also proved to members that he can raise funds, a key void that needs to be filled after McCarthy, who is widely considered a master fundraiser.

Hern is also mulling a bid for speaker if Scalise or Jordan cannot get the 217 votes needed to win. He spent last week making his pitch to colleagues and cited his business experience— he has operated 18 McDonald’s franchises in addition to other ventures— as a key reason he could bring a fresh approach to the job. He ultimately decided against declaring a bid over the weekend after speaking to all of his 221 colleagues, many of whom said that a three-way-race for speaker would only fracture the conference further.