House Republicans Are In No Shape To Lead

Last night CA-27, in the northern suburbs of L.A. County, a district with a D+4 PVI, was called for Republican incumbent Mike Garcia, clinching the Republicans majority in the House. Before we look at that majority, I just want to say one more time, that California Democrats nominated 3 absolutely awful candidates in blue districts they should have won, 3-time— now 4-time— loser Christy Smith, a GOP-lite corporate quasi-Democrat in the district that gave the Republicans the majority; and then the two leaders of the legislature’s “Mod Squad,” the corrupt conservative Blue Dog-like Democrats in Sacramento, Rudy Salas, currently losing to David Valadao in CA-22 (D+5) and Adam Gray, currently losing to John Duarte in CA-13 (D+4). These 3 have proven themselves unfit for office— and the Democratic Party of California backed them. So… the GOP takeover can’t be completely blamed on how horrible the New York Democratic Party and the Florida Democratic Party are. The California Democratic Party handed the GOP the House majority.

Garcia brought the GOP to 218 votes, Valadao will give them 219; Kevin Kiley in a backward red northeast California district, will make that 220, probably today. That leaves Duarte if he beats Gray— 91% of the votes are counted and he’s leading 0.8 points (963 votes), so it can still go either way— and the Lauren Boebert recount in Colorado— to bring the Republican majority to 222… or not.

That slim a majority— in a fractious party barely interested in actual governance to begin with— is going to be nearly impossible to deal with on any given day. In fact, on every given day. And no one thinks McCarthy is up to it. This morning, Jake Sherman dup into what happened at the Republican Conference yesterday. It mostly went well for McCarthy— but not totally. They resoundingly rejected a measure that would’ve allowed committee members to elect their own chairs, win for McCarthy and— an even bigger win— they overwhelmingly adopted a measure to limit the use of the motion to vacate, the mechanism by which members can call for a vote of no confidence in the speaker, something the fascist fringe of the party was demanding.

Sherman explained that “the House Republican Steering Committee has long been a power center in the GOP. The panel decides who sits on what committees and who wields the gavels. The party leader– the speaker in the majority or leader in the minority– holds four votes, the whip holds two and the rest is made up of members of the leadership and regional representatives… Because the Steering Committee has power, it’s become an object of [fascists’] ire. In a closed party meeting Wednesday, Republicans approved a new steering map. This new map increases regional representation from 13 to 19, which means 75% of the votes on the committee will be non-leadership representatives. Here’s the map. As you can see, in some regions it would only take six votes to get on the Steering Committee. This is a big win for [fascists] because it significantly decreases the power of the leadership when it comes to determining the composition of committees. It’s a major devolution of power from the leadership to the rank and file. This map was written, in part, by Virginia Rep. Morgan Griffith, who has long been a top rules maven for the House Freedom Caucus.”

That was the worst thing that happened yesterday for McCarthy. He can live with it, especially because “the conference resoundingly rejected a proposal from [Pennsylvania neo-Nazi] Scott Perry, to have each committee choose their own chairs. This was a victory for GOP leadership, which strongly opposed this measure.” And. Even more important top McCarthy, the conference “also approved a leadership-backed rule from Mike Turner (R-OH) to force the conference to sign off on any attempt to oust the speaker. Any member used to be able to offer a so-called ‘motion to vacate,’ which is how former Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC) was able to begin the push to get rid of Speaker John Boehner. Now, if a member wants to bring a motion to vacate to the floor, they have to get the approval of the majority of House Republicans. Again, this is a big win for the GOP leadership.”

Sherman concludes that the fascist wing— whether you call it the Gang-Greene or the House Freedom Caucus— “has some work to do if it wants to build coalitions outside of its small clutch of members. The reality is that yes, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy needs the [fascist members] to win the speakership. But the [fascists] also need McCarthy and the rest of the rank and file to notch some victories. This will become much more pronounced in a 221- or 222-seat majority.”

Carl Hulse tackled McCarthy’s dilemma last night: Republicans Barely Won the House. Now Can They Run It? Can McCarthy “achieve the unity necessary to perform fundamental tasks such as funding the government, or whether unyielding far-right members will make the new speaker’s life miserable and the House an unmanageable mess?”

The GOP’s razor thin margin of votes will allow give them subpoena power and allow them to “set the agenda, run the committees and try to hold President Biden’s feet to the fire with a string of promised investigations. Despite their underwhelming showing, Republicans are unlikely to be chastened into cooperating with Biden and no doubt will plunge ahead aggressively once they get their hands on the gavels. For many, that was the point of the election. Their agenda is investigative, not legislative.”

But for poor hapless McCarthy, the GOP’s win “came in the worst possible way. The much thinner than expected majority means fewer Republicans from swing districts who might be averse to provoking chaos, making him more reliant on the fire-breathing hard-right members who triumphed in safe, ruby-red districts on the promise of political warfare against Biden. At the same time, he will need to protect the less incendiary freshmen, such as the newcomers from New York [and California] who will be the top targets of Democrats beginning almost immediately. The margin and the mix could combine to make the House all but ungovernable.”

As for producing results, as Hulse wrote, “The only results that interest many in the [new] House majority are those that inflict political pain on Biden and congressional Democrats, as demanded by their MAGA constituents. In a closed-door meeting of Republicans on Monday, right-wing lawmakers including Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia extracted a promise that their leaders would investigate Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Justice Department for their treatment of defendants jailed in connection with the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. But [McCarthy] cannot do only investigations. They sell have two find some’ yes’ votes to approve spending bills and other legislation that must pass to keep the government running, when many of their members are very accustomed to voting ‘no’ on just about everything. Republicans have shut down the government over spending disputes and faced down Democratic administrations over raising the federal debt limit since the rise and fall of Newt Gingrich in the House in the 1990s. In the past, more government-minded Republicans such as Mr. Upton could be relied upon to step up and supply the votes needed to resolve a crisis. But the ranks of pragmatists have been severely depleted, replaced by lawmakers who would like nothing more than a game of fiscal chicken, no matter the risks to an already shaky economy.

The far right faction is already pushing McCarthy “to agree to rules changes that could hamstring [his] ability to bring bills to the floor, an approach that could threaten necessary legislation, such as an increase in the debt limit. Republican leaders could— and probably would be forced to— seek votes from Democrats, but too many concessions or too much cooperation across the aisle will likely spark a rebellion from within.”

And, remember 37 House Republicans voted against McCarthy’s leadership, 32 for Arizona neo-Nazi Andy Biggs and 5 for random names they wrote in. Politico’s Olivia Beavers and Jordan Carney noted a remark by Pennsylvania moderate Brian Fitzpatrick illustrating how hard it will be for McCarthy to accomplish anything: “Everybody’s a Joe Manchin.”

Keep in mind, there are 50 non-fascists who call themselves the Republican Main Street Partnership and they have a point of view too, even if the media only concentrates on Nazis like Marjorie Traitor Greene, Matt Gaetz, Andy Biggs and Boebert (who can still lose her seat in a red district recount, but probably won’t).

McCarthy is now working to make sure he can win the speakership. Several Republicans say he won’t. Beavers and Carney wrote that “He can’t lose more than a handful of members. Though the House hasn’t formally been called yet, Republicans are expected to have a single-digit majority. And McCarthy has already lost two: Shortly before Wednesday’s conference meeting, [neo-fascist] Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) appeared to put himself firmly in the ‘no’ column. ‘[McCarthy] wants to maintain the status quo, which consolidates power into his hands and a small group of individuals he personally selects. We need a leader who can stand up to a Democrat-controlled Senate and President Biden, and unfortunately, that isn’t Kevin McCarthy,’ Rosendale said. He joins Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), who is pushing Jordan as a potential speaker contender and cast doubt on McCarthy’s chances of ultimately claiming the gavel: ‘Kevin McCarthy couldn’t get 218 votes, he couldn’t get 200 votes. He couldn’t get 190 votes.’ Other McCarthy opponents also appeared unbowed, calling for challengers to the California Republican to step forward… [Neo-fascist] Bob Good (R-VA), who opposed McCarthy, said the current leader’s failure to reach 218 internal votes ‘opens up the opportunity for anyone interested to let us know what their vision is to fight for the things that matter most to the American people.’”

CNN predicts gridlock. You think? And, one more thing, Pelosi’s not taking the ambassador to Italy job. She’s staying in the House but stepping down as Democratic Leader and handing that job to Wall Street whore Hakeem Jeffries (also AIPAC whore). He and McCarthy are a perfect pair to guarantee complete House dysfunction. Good times!