Have You Ever Been Able To Put Your Finger On Exactly What's Wrong With Republicans? Greed? Hatred?

Trump, still insisting— overflowing with delusional— that every Republican and every Democrat wanted Roe v Wade overturned, showed up on Maria Bartiromo’s Fox show yesterday, simultaneously claiming that a national abortion ban is “off the table” while also insisting that if he wins “we’ll see what happens.” It’s beyond paradoxical. Maybe schizophrenic is a better description. Trump is no doubt suffering from cognitive dissonance and if he were a 1984 character he would be demonstrating “double think.” 

He gave his stock campaign answer: “It’s very important to me to have the exceptions, like Ronald Reagan had the three exceptions: the life of the mother, rape and incest. And it’s gone back to the people. It’s gone back to the states. And now they’re working it out… This is what every Democrat and Republican wanted. Everybody wanted it and I did it. Now we’ll see what happens… I will say this, that issue has been, in my opinion, largely defused, largely defused.” He wishes—and thinks he can gaslight women and men who respect women into believing so.

There are voters who believe every word of MAGA extremism. And there are others who are smart enough not to be conned. Maybe “smart” is the wrong word (maybe). Emotional vulnerability could come into play— as can confirmation bias. But basically, people who reject a conman like Trump are more likely to have the ability to analyze information objectively and question assumptions (critical thinking, public enemy numero uno for conservatives). I might also add that a healthy dose of skepticism can help people avoid falling for Trump’s lines of bullshit. The kind people who fall for a 3-card monte conman near Trump Tower or a Nigerian Prince e-mail are, first and foremost, just plain gullible (and stupid) and are surprisingly often lonely, isolated and very vulnerable. When I was being treated for cancer I developed “chemo brain” (chemotherapy-induced cognitive impairment) which made me very sympathetic and trusting and impaired my judgement, making it very difficult to say no. When some hustlers asked me to invest in their film— everyone in L.A. understands what a scam that always is— I wrote them a big check (which, of course, I lost). This kind of temporary cognitive impairment has given me insight and better understanding the MAGA movement, since virtually all of the true believers have permanent cognitive impairment. There would be no Trumps without people like this (basically, suckers).

Are all Republicans suckers? According to Dana Liebelson, no. She wrote about “normie” Republicans in Arizona and how they’re ruining MAGAt Kari Lake’s chances to be elected to the Senate. As of this month Republicans hold a clear registration edge:

• GOP- 35.8%

• Unaffiliated- 33.5%

• Democrats- 30.7%

And yet every single poll this month— including by Republican pollsters— shows Ruben Gallego beating Lake, and very substantially. Before she became a total; Mar-a-Lago creature, she only very narrowly lost the 2022 gubernatorial election 1,287,891 (50.32%) to 1,270,774 (49.65%), the closest gubernatorial race that cycle. Red Eagle, a GOP outfit announced Gallego would beat her by 13 points, which is gigantic, especially in a state where Republicans hold that kind registration advantage.

Lake, wrote Liebelson, “has attached herself to Trump on both policy and style, banking that it will win her the state. But she isn’t getting as much support as Trump is, not even from diehard MAGA fans— and is trailing Gallego in the latest polls by upwards of 6 points… Lake needs moderates and Republicans beyond Trump’s base, and her campaign appears to know that— her Senate run has been marked by awkward attempts to temper her message. But as early voting begins, it’s become increasingly clear that outreach to this group poses a bigger challenge for her, and her MAGA support might not be enough to fill the holes. Among the broader group of Republican and independent voters, she is doing even worse than she is with Trump-first voters: She’s viewed unfavorably by more than 20 percent of overall Republicans and over half of independents.

Lake has a recent, negative history with many of these voters. During her gubernatorial run in 2022, Lake followed Trump’s lead in severing the wing of the Republican party that supported the late Sen. John McCain, boasting after her primary win, with a gesture of impalement, that “we drove a stake through the heart of the McCain machine.” Lake lost to Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs by a sliver of votes, a defeat some attributed to Lake’s 2020 presidential election denialism and the fact that ostracized Republicans got her message. (“There are 10,000 McCain interns in Arizona,” said Wes Gullett, McCain’s former state director, wryly. He is supporting Gallego.) Lake refused to concede and has continued to legally challenge that result as she runs for Senate.

…[P]erhaps no other issue shows how much she has struggled to strike a moderate tone as abortion rights. It remains a top priority for Arizona Democrats since the Dobbs Supreme Court decision led to a close brush in the spring with what would have been one of the more restrictive bans in the country. The state has seen an expansive organizing effort in favor of a ballot initiative to protect abortion access. Abortion alone may not sway key Republican and independent voters. But it’s an issue where Lake’s conflicting statements reflect a larger problem: Her extreme rhetoric helped make her a national MAGA star— and some Arizonans can’t buy that she’s changed… (Meghan McCain put it this way: “NO PEACE, BITCH!”)

…Previously, during her gubernatorial run, Lake called abortion the ultimate sin, said that abortion pills should be illegal and praised the 1864-era ban. It appeared she was trying to soften her stance. But not long after she advocated against that ban, she complained in an interview that it wasn’t being enforced. (In the email to me, she reiterated the points in her campaign video. She did not comment when I specifically asked her at what week she would support legal abortion in Arizona.)

The abortion ban was ultimately averted by Democratic state leadership and two Republican state senators who joined the vote to repeal it in May. If Lake had won her race for governor in 2022, “it would have been devastating,” said Dr. Gabrielle Goodrick, who founded a clinic that provides abortion care in Phoenix, fearing Lake would have ushered in a six-week ban. She wondered aloud why she wasn’t more stressed at the time. “I guess because I was so confident that [Hobbs] would win,” she said. The state still has a 15-week ban with some exceptions, but not for rape or incest, and a ban on abortion due to genetic abnormalities, both signed by former Republican Gov. Doug Ducey. The proposed constitutional amendment would protect abortion in the state at least until fetal viability… [H]er shifting stance on abortion rights revealed qualities that some voters already didn’t like about her: “She speaks to what she feels she can sell,” said Ruth Lambert, who set up a hub in conservative north Phoenix for people collecting signatures for the abortion ballot initiative.

Trump has made wildly conflicting statements about abortion, garnering some backlash from his anti-abortion supporters. But his base holds him to his own standard. In Lake’s case, Gallego hammered her in campaign ads using her old statements, which exacerbated her preexisting issue: Moderate voters she needed to win already felt her rhetoric was too extreme, and they didn’t buy her newly subdued approach.

…Gallego listed securing abortion rights as his first priority if he is elected. He wants to nationally codify Roe. His own views in favor of reproductive freedom were shaped in part by feeling responsible for his sisters growing up— his father left when he was around 11, he told me— while also seeing classmates leave school to give birth, which impressed upon him from a young age the importance of having control over your own body. He has two children, the youngest a 15-month-old daughter. (Lake frequently attacks Gallego for parting with his ex-wife, the mayor of Phoenix, when she was pregnant. Mayor Kate Gallego has endorsed him.) Having his second child post-Dobbs, Gallego recalled the unnerving discussions he and his wife had about what they might do if something went wrong.

“Kari Lake, given the opportunity, will absolutely ban abortion,” he told me. “This is why we have Republican women that are supporting me,” Gallego said. “They don’t trust her.”

As a measure of confidence in their candidate, it's worth mentioning that as of the latest FEC report, Lake has raised just $10.3 million to Gallego's $31.9 million. He has over $8 million left and she has just $2 million. Democrats have put over $42 million in outside money supporting him and GOP outside groups have only spent $15 million on her.