Happy Guy Fawkes Night! Here's What's Happening Today

Welcome to Election Day (and Guy Fawkes Night)! The Director of National Intelligence, FBI & the Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency warned that foreign adversaries, especially Russia, are working "to undermine public confidence in the integrity of U.S. elections and stoke divisions among Americans."

Trump’s last campaign stop yesterday, a MAGA rally in Pittsburgh, was all about his dark dystopian vision of the country and grievances about the 2020 election and his anger about Adam Schiff being elected, likely in a landslide, to the open California Senate seat. Trump's weirdo running mate thought a fitting closing for his campaign would be to call Kamala "trash" at an Atlanta rally.

Jamie Raskin had an inspiring message for his followers this morning: “Let’s choose Kamala’s to-do list over Trump’s enemies list… Today’s election is not about Donald Trump. For a long time we’ve known exactly who this deranged con-man is. This election is about who we are: the greatest multi-racial, multi-ethnic, multi-religious constitutional democracy that ever existed. In our vision, government must be an instrument of the common good of all. Democrats have cut the cost of prescription drugs, defended Social Security and Medicare, lifted millions of children out of poverty and acted effectively to address climate change. We’re not going back to the days where Trump plunders our government and sells us out to dictators like Vladimir Putin and Mohammed Bin Salman.”

Early this morning, Politico reported that “Battleground state election officials say their offices have prepared for a swift certification process— and warn of consequences for any county officials who try to disrupt it. Some states have already drafted legal filings and are ready to immediately head to court to force any county to certify its results if it tries not to. Others are threatening criminal prosecution for local officials who delay the process — pointing to a handful of cases already underway. The effort to preempt county-level certification fights comes amid fears that allies of Donald Trump would try to overturn the election if he loses.” Possible MAGA problems in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, where turnout is reported heading for an all-time high, and Arizona.

Now... claims Republicans and their allies, especially in the Kremlin, make every cycle and that they’re already making today. These claims are always proven false: fake votes, computers flipping votes, thousands of dead voters, non-citizens voting, ripped up ballots, ballot dumps in the middle of the night and, of course, early claims of a Trump victory before votes are counted. This, on the other hand, is real: The former CEO of MAGA organization My Faith Votes, homophobic sociopath Jason Yates isn’t doing voter outreach today. On Monday, he was charged in Minnesota with eight felony counts of possession of child pornography after a relative came forward with a hard drive containing more than 100 sexually explicit images and videos involving children under 14 years old, including eight involving children between 5 and 7 years old.

In noting the death of Bernie Marcus, right-wing billionaire Trump supporter, Paul Campos quoted this passage from Robert Paxton’s The Anatomy of Fascism:

“No dictator rules by himself. He must obtain the cooperation, or at least the acquiescence, of the decisive agencies of rule— the military, the police, the judiciary, senior civil servants— and of powerful social and economic forces. In the special case of fascism, having depended upon conservative elites to open the gates to him, the new leaders could not shunt them casually aside. Some degree, at least, of obligatory power sharing with the preexisting conservative establishment made fascist dictatorships fundamentally different in their origins, development, and practice from that of Stalin. Consequently we have never known an ideologically pure fascist regime. Indeed, the thing hardly seems possible. Each generation of scholars of fascism has noted that the regimes rested upon some kind of pact or alliance between the fascist party and powerful conservative forces. In the early 1940s the social democratic refugee Franz Neumann argued in his classic Behemoth that a ‘cartel’ of party, industry, army, and bureaucracy ruled Nazi Germany, held together only by ‘profit, power, prestige, and especially fear.’”

Will Democrats flip the House? Probably. The first tangible evidence will be in Virginia, where polls close at 7 and two seats will point towards an answer— the open 7th district, where Democrat Eugene Vindman is headed for twin over Republican Derrick Anderson in the open D+1 district and the Virginia Beach-based second district where Republican Jen Kiggans ousted mediocre New Dem Elaine Luria in 2022. The Democrats decided to run Missy Smasal, who’s very much like Luria. But it’s close. Kiggans spent $5 million to Smasal’s $2. 6 million. MAGA Mike’s Congressional Leadership Fund spent $3.1 million, while Hakeem Jeffries’ House Majority PAC spent $3.3 million. By the way, in VA-07, Vindman out-raised Anderson $15.5 million to $2.8 million and outside money was about equal for the 2 candidates, even with three right-wing billionaire-funded PACs (Jeffrey Yass’ Protect Freedom, the Koch network’s American Prosperity and  Ken Griffin’s and Paul Singer’s American Patriots having kicked in $5 million on Anderson’s behalf.)

Half an hour later Ohio closes and we’ll see in Marcy Kaptur defies gravity again and beats Derek Merrin in her very gerrymandered R+3, Toledo-based district where Trump beat Biden 50.6% to 47.7%. In 2022 Kaptur’s opponent was a neo-Nazi MAGAt and this time she has a more standard garden variety MAGAt. Kaptur raised $4.5 million to Merrin’s $1.4 million and outside spending was about even— $8.5 million for Kaptur and $9.4 for Anderson (including a million from Elon Musk).

Then at 8 PM, polls close in Maine, Pennsylvania and Michigan (rainy) where we’ll be looking to see in incumbents Jared Golden (D-ME), Susan Wild (D-PA), Matt Cartwright (D-PA), Scott Perry (R-PA) and John James (R-MI) survive. There are two open seats in Michigan, the 7th (Elissa Slotkin’s where Democrat Curtis Hertel faces Tom Barrett— R+2) and 8th (Dan Kildee’s where Democrat Kristen Rivet meets Republican Paul Junge— R+1).

Overall projections of who will dominate Congress could be available by then but will definitely be made once Iowa, Nebraska and New York close at 9 PM). Democrats need to oust Anthony D’Esposito (Nassau County), Brandon Williams (Syracuse) and Marc Molinaro (NY-19, even PVI) to win back the majority. Defeating Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn in Iowa and Derrick Van Orden in Wisconsin will indicate a blue wave. The Democrats should be able to knock off Don Bacon in Omaha tonight.

So what do you do about eating while all this is happening? Glad you asked. About a decade ago, Roland and I rented a house in Tuscany and drove around looking for great restaurants in the countryside. We found a winner called Da Delfina in the middle of nowhere (Artimino) where we eat fried soup— Ribollita Da Delfina, which I eventually figured out how to make. Last night we had minestrone. Tonight that will be Ribollita. This morning I added some broken up small pieces of stale bread and some more veggies (black kale, a can of pumpkin, some tomato paste and some finely chopped Napa cabbage). I didn’t need more because the minestrone was already completely packed with vegetables. Traditionally you’d also add some pramigiana but we’re avoiding cheese so I used nutritional yeast. I let it held all day, baked it for an hour this afternoon and I’ll fry patties just before Virginia and North Carolina close).

State legislatures we’re watching include Arizona and New Hampshire where Dems have a chance to flip majorities, Wisconsin and Iowa, where Democrats can make some real inroads and Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania, where Dems are defending narrow majorities.

We’ll also be watching to see if Missouri voters approve the voter-initiated constitutional amendment aimed at restoring abortion rights. And… if they do, will they also vote to dump anti-Choice fanatic Senator Josh Hawley and replace him with populist Lucas Kunce? In 2020, Trump beat Biden statewide 1,718,736 (56.8%) to 1,253,014 (41.4%). Abortion is also on the ballot in 9 other states: Florida, Montana, Arizona, Nevada, Nebraska, Colorado, South Dakota New York and Maryland.

Do you think Karl Rove isn’t as crazy as the rest of them? Forget it; he's predicting that Trump has a chance to win in Virginia (down by around 7 points), New Mexico (down by over 6 points) and New Hampshire (down by 5 points). He doesn’t. Kamala has a far stronger chance to win in Iowa that Trump has of winning in Virginia, New Hampshire or New Mexico.

Grayson vs Trump: Yesterday Alan Grayson filed a lawsuit in state court against Trump, challenging his eligibility to hold public office because he is a convicted felon— nor can he receive Florida’s 30 electoral votes.

On Monday, the Christian Science Monitor reported that “while post-election chaos is quite possible, 2024 is unlikely to be an exact replay of 2020. In important ways, the system has been strengthened: Congress passed legislation making clear that elected officials cannot reject the will of the voters. And states and localities have worked assiduously to harden the voting process against potential attacks. Mr. Trump also doesn’t have control over the military or the Justice Department this time around, and it will be Vice President Harris, not Vice President Mike Pence, presiding over the next Electoral College count in Congress… Even if House Republicans wanted to, though, it’s unlikely they could block a legitimate win by Harris, thanks to a new law Congress passed in 2022. The Electoral Count Reform Act (ECRA) made clear that the ‘alternate elector’ legal theory cited by Trump’s allies to try to overturn his loss in 2020— appointing rogue slates of Electoral College electors who would back him over Joe Biden— would be a legal no-go in future elections. It would take majorities in both chambers of Congress to reject the law’s strictures on certification— and many Senate Republicans who backed the law will still be in office on Jan. 6, 2025, making that an unlikely outcome… Democrats and Republicans who have stood up to Trump currently hold the governorships and secretary of state offices in nearly every swing state— many having defeated candidates Trump endorsed in the 2022 midterms. That means the officials who are supervising the elections and who will ultimately certify the statewide results are unlikely to side with Trump if he tries to subvert the law.”

Some counties are starting to close in Indiana and Kentucky now. There's nothing of note in either blood red MAGA state. This is what I’m planning for this evening— I’ll cover the big stuff here on this post with UPDATES. And the moment to moment stuff, I’ll post on Twitter (@downwithtyranny), Blue Sky (@downwithtyranny.bsky.social) and Spoutible (@DownWithTyranny).

UPDATE 1— Philadelphia district attorney Larry Krasner responded to Trump's hot air about talk of massive cheating in Philly. “The only talk about massive cheating has come from one of the candidates, Donald J. Trump. There is no factual basis whatsoever within law enforcement to support this wild allegation. We have invited complaints and allegations of improprieties all day. If Donald J. Trump has any facts to support his wild allegations, we want them now. Right now. We are not holding our breath.”