Georgia Was A Big Deal Last Night-- How And Why

On Election Day, when it became clear that Georgia would be going to a runoff, but that Cortez-Masto had been elected, securing the Democrats their flimsy Senate majority, I noted that what happened in Georgia didn’t matter… at least not in terms of which party would run the Senate. In every other way, it mattered tremendously. As Carl Hulse wrote this morning, Warnock’s two-and-a-half point win— around 100,000 votes— “delivered Democrats just one additional seat, but that single layer of padding for their majority will hand them exponentially more leeway to control the chamber than they have now. Warnock’s success gives Democrats a 51-to-49 majority in the Senate beginning in January, expanding the bare minimum hold they currently have by virtue of Vice President Kamala Harris’s tie-breaking power in the evenly divided chamber. The implications for Senate Democrats and the Biden administration extend well beyond the single Senate slot. With an additional vote, Democrats can take much more operational control of the Senate, easing the confirmation of contentious nominees, clearing the way for investigations and in general availing themselves of breathing room on a variety of matters… A larger Democratic contingent will give the party a one-seat advantage on congressional committees that are now evenly split, a situation that allows minority Republicans to maintain significant leverage over legislation and other business. As a result, some administration nominees have stalled in committee, while others have made it out only through a special floor procedure that costs Democrats time. Having an edge on the committees will allow Democrats to overcome Republican opposition, if they can hold together.”

A- That’s a big “if,” when you consider he’s referring to self-serving conservative shitheads Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin, who—working together— can still grind the Democratic majority into nothing and

B- Will the Senate Democrats even try to do anything with their new power… like continuing where the J-6 Committee ends, for example? Or, better yet, getting rid of the legislative filibuster, which they could do immediately. I wouldn’t bet the farm on that.

This morning, right-wing NY Times columnist Ross Douthat wrote that the Georgia runoff provides “yet another case study in why the Republican Party desperately needs to move on from Donald Trump. In the case of the previous runoffs, Trump’s influence on the outcome was flagrant and direct: He made the entire pre-runoff period a stage for his election-fraud dramatics, pushing the Republican Senate candidates, Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, into attacks on the integrity of the elections they were trying to win. And he almost certainly dampened Republican turnout with his suggestion that the fix was in— a suggestion amplified by his more lunatic allies, who discouraged Republican voting outright. This time around the Trumpian influence was a little more indirect, but still important. He publicly encouraged his old USFL pal Herschel Walker to run for Senate and helped to clear the field with his endorsement, ensuring that the GOP would have a hapless, incompetent and morally suspect candidate in one of the year’s most important Senate races. And then he forced Walker to stagger through the runoff against Raphael Warnock in the shadow of Trump’s own low-energy campaign announcement, which was succeeded by Trump’s dinner with anti-Semites, which was succeeded by Trump’s call to suspend the Constitution in order to restore him to the presidency.”

I’ve been chomping at the bit since last night to go over every Georgia county to see, on a more granular level, how Warnock bested Walker last night. Let’s start with the 4 counties with the mammoth vote totals, the bedrock of Democratic possibilities in Georgia. In all 4 counties Warnock did better last night than he had done on November 8 (and he also did better in each county than Biden did in 2020). Look:

• Fulton Co.- D+49 in Nov, D+53 last night

• Cobb Co.- D+16 in November, D+19 last night

• Gwinnett Co.- D+20 in November, D+24 last night

• DeKalb Co.- D+70 in November, D+73 last night

The only other county in the state with over 100,000 votes cast yesterday was Cherokee County, a KKK hellhole in the Atlanta suburbs where Biden got less than a third of the vote in 2020. Walker maintained his hefty November advantage there— R+38— but didn’t grown it and it was slightly smaller than Trump’s 2020 margin. And in the second biggest red county, Forsyth, Walker actually lost ground— from R+33 in November to R+31 last night. Meanwhile in Savannah (Chatham County), Warnock went from D+ 21 in November to D+24 last night. And in two more Atlanta suburban counties, Warnock killed it— In Henry County he went from D+ 29 to D+34 and in Clayton from D+76 to D+78. These 10 are the counties where the big numbers are— and they paint the picture of why Herschel Walker and Donald Trump failed last night, despite a GOP investment of something like $160,000,000!!

It wasn’t until the 11th biggest county in the state, Hall, that we see an improvement for Walker. His November R+44 went to R+45. It was clear right from the first votes coming in, that that wasn’t going to do it for him. Here the rest of the state:

• Richmond Co.- D+38 in November, D+40 last night

• Paulding Co.- R+24 in November, R+24 last night

• Columbia Co.- R+27 in November, R+25 last night

• Muscogee Co.- D+26 in November, D+29 last night

• Houston Co.- R+11 in November, R+9 last night

• Faytte Co.- R+3 in November, R+less than 1 last night

• Coweta Co.- R+34 in November, R+33 last night

• Bibb Co.- D+24 in November, D+25 last night

• Douglas Co.- D+31 in November, D+33 last night

• Carroll Co.- R+40 in November, R+39 last night

• Walton Co.- R+47 in November, R+47 last night

• Newton Co.- D+16 in November, D+18 last night

• Clarke Co.- D+44 in November, D+48 last night

• Bartow Co.- R+50 in November, R+52 last night

• Rockdale Co.- D+48 in November, D+51 last night

• Lowdnes Co.- R+18 in November, R+17 last night

• Glynn Co.- R+27 in November, R+25 last night

• Floyd Co.- R+40 in November, R+41 last night

• Jackson Co.- R+56 in November, R+57 last night

• Barrow Co.- R+41 in November, R+41 last night

• Dougherty Co.- D+41 in November, D+43 last night

• Whitfield Co.- R+46 in November, R+49 last night

• Effingham Co.- R+46 in November, R+47 last night

• Catoosa Co.- R+54 in November, R+56 last night

• Spaulding Co.- R+17 in November, R+17 last night

• Troup Co.- R+22 in November, R+21 last night

• Oconee Co.- R+35 in November, R+34 last night

• Walker Co.- R+58 in November, R+60 last night

• Laurens Co.- R+31 in November, R+30 last night

• Gordon Co.- R+62 in November, R+65 last night

• Camden Co.- R+33 in November, R+32 last night

• Harris Co.- R+44 in November, R+43 last night

• Thomas Co.- R+24 in November, R+22 last night

• Bryan Co.- R+34 in November, R+33 last night

• Habersham Co.- R+63 in November, R+65 last night

• Liberty Co.- D+27 in November, D+29 last night

• Baldwin Co.- R+0.6 in November, D+1.1 last night

• Pickens Co.- R+63 in November, R+65 last night

• Gilmer Co.- R+62 in November, R+63 last night

• Union Co.- R+60 in November, R+62 last night

• Monroe Co.- R+43 in November, R+43 last night

• Lee Co.- R+43 in November, R+42 last night

• Dawson Co.- R+64 in November, R+66 last night

• Tift Co.- R+39 in November, R+37 last night

• Polk Co.- R+56 in November, R+59 last night

• Colquitt Co.- R+51 in November, R+51 last night

• Madison Co.- R+52 in November, R+52 last night

• Lumpkin Co.- R+57 in November, R+59 last night

• White Co.- R+65 in November, R+67 last night

• Jones Co.- R+33 in November, R+33 last night

• Fannin Co.- R+62 in November, R+63 last night

• Coffee Co.- R+44 in November, R+43 last night

• Haralson Co.- R+72 in November, R+74 last night

• Murray Co.- R+72 in November, R+74 last night

• Ware Co.- R+43 in November, R+42 last night

• Hart Co.- R+54 in November, R+54 last night

• Greene Co.- R+31 in November, R+30 last night

• Morgan Co.- R+44 in November, R+44 last night

• Putnam Co.- R+42 in November, R+42 last night

• Wayne Co.- R+58 in November, R+58 last night

• Peach Co.- R+5 in November, R+4 last night

• Upson Co.- R+35 in November, R+36 last night

• Sumter Co.- D+3 in November, D+5 last night

• Butts Co.- R+43 in November, R+43 last night

• Pike Co.- R+71 in November, R+73 last night

• Stephens Co.- R+60 in November, R+60 last night

• Meriwether Co.- R+22 in November, R+21 last night

• Franklin Co.- R+71 in November, R+73 last night

• Decatur Co.- R+24 in November, R+23 last night

• Burke Co.- R+7 in November, R+5 last night

• Toombs Co.- R+50 in November, R+49 last night

• McDuffie Co.- R+24 in November, R+22 last night

• Grady Co.- R+37 in November, R+35 last night

• Rabun Co.- R+53 in November, R+54 last night

• Washington Co.- R+1.4 in November, D+1.2 last night

• Emanuel Co.- R+42 in November, R+41 last night

• Lamar Co.- R+42 in November, R+42 last night

• Worth Co.- R+49 in November, R+49 last night

• Chattooga Co.- R+58 in November, R+61 last night

• Pierce Co.- R+77 in November, R+77 last night

• Elbert Co.- R+42 in November, R+42 last night

• Banks Co.- R+77 in November, R+79 last night

• Mitchell Co.- R+15 in November, R+14 last night

• Towns Co.- R+59 in November, R+61 last night

• Appling Co.- R+61 in November, R+61 last night

• Oglethorpe Co.- R+39 in November, R+39 last night

• Dodge Co.- R+49 in November, R+48 last night

• Tattnall Co.- R+51 in November, R+52 last night

• Jefferson Co.- D+1.9 in November, D+3 last night

• Jasper Co.- R+53 in November, R+55 last night

• Crisp Co.- R+30 in November, R+29 last night

• Berrien Co.- R+68 in November, R+70 last night

• Brantley Co.- R+82 in November, R+83 last night

• McIntosh Co.- R+24 in November, R+22 last night

• Cook Co.- R+44 in November, R+44 last night

• Dade Co.- R+64 in November, R+65 last night

• Brooks Co.- R+27 in November, R+27 last night

• Screven Co.- R+23 in November, R+22 last night

• Ben Hill Co.- R+29 in November, R+28 last night

• Bleckley Co.- R+55 in November, R+55 last night

• Crawford Co.- R+44 in November, R+45 last night

• Jeff Davis Co.- R+66 in November, R+65 last night

• Heard Co.- R+68 in November, R+68 last night

• Long Co.- R+28 in November, R+25 last night

• Wilkes Co.- R+17 in November, R+16 last night

• Wilkinson Co.- R+13 in November, R+11 last night

• Lincoln Co.- R+45 in November, R+44 last night

• Early Co.- R+14 in November, R+10 last night

• Macon Co.- D+22 in November, D+23 last night

• Bacon Co.- R+74 in November, R+75 last night

• Johnson Co.- R+48 in November, R+43 last night

• Twiggs Co.- R+8 in November, R+6 last night

• Terrell Co.- D+6 in November, D+6 last night

• Candler Co.- R+45 in November, R+ last night

• Hancock Co.- D+44 in November, D+41 last night

• Telfair Co.- R+38 in November, R+36 last night

• Pulaski Co.- R+39 in November, R+38 last night

• Irwin Co.- R+54 in November, R+55 last night

• Evans Co.- R+40 in November, R+40 last night

• Charlton Co.- R+52 in November, R+53 last night

• Dooly Co.- R+10 in November, R+8 last night

• Montgomery Co.- R+53 in November, R+51 last night

• Taylor Co.- R+27 in November, R+25 last night

• Turner Co.- R+24 in November, R+25 last night

• Seminole Co.- R+44 in November, R+42 last night

• Marion Co.- R+26 in November, R+23 last night

• Talbot Co.- D+20 in November, D+20 last night

• Jenkins Co.- R+33 in November, R+31 last night

• Lanier Co.- R+43 in November, R+43 last night

• Randolph Co.- D+8 in November, D+12 last night

• Wilcox Co.- R+50 in November, R+48 last night

• Treulten Co.- R+41 in November, R+41 last night

• Warren Co.- D+5 in November, D+5 last night

• Atkinson Co.- R+54 in November, R+52 last night

• Clinch Co.- R+57 in November, R+53 last night

• Miller Co.- R+52 in November, R+54 last night

• Schley Co.- R+ in November, R+ last night

• Wheeler Co.- R+40 in November, R+43 last night

• Calhoun Co.- D+14 in November, D+16 last night

• Stewart Co.- D+18 in November, D+25 last night

• Glascock Co.- R+82 in November, R+83 last night

• Baker Co.- R+15 in November, R+15 last night

• Webster Co.- R+21 in November, R+19 last night

• Clay Co.- D+4 in November, D+5 last night

• Echols Co.- R+79 in November, R+ last night

• Chattahoochee Co.- R+8 in November, R+4 last night

• Quitman Co.- R+15 in November, R+14 last night

• Taliaferro Co.- D+22 in November, D+21 last night

Only two counties flipped, Baldwin and Washington and both went from Walker in November to Warnock last night.

Blue America’s advertising strategy was three-fold. We ran GOTV ads in the bluest counties in the state, Spanish-language ads in the counties with the biggest populations of Latino voters and an ad meant to appeal to rural voters, but only in the rural counties where Warnock won or had been competitive in November. We didn’t run our rural ads in red landslide counties, just in rural counties with enough independent and swing voters to make it worthwhile… and that strategy paid off. Almost all the counties that we ran our rural ads in saw increases in Warnock's performance. The ones he won in November, he won by bigger margins last night and the ones he lost in November, he came closer to winning this time— and, two of them were the ones that flipped, Baldwin and Washington. This was the Facebook ad we ran in the rural counties:

In all we reached 111,680 Georgia voters and each of them watched the ads an average of two-and-a-half times, slightly more in rural counties than in urban or suburban counties. Over 1,200 of them clicked on the ad to go to Warnock's own website to learn more about his campaign or to volunteer for or contribute to his effort. So... thanks everyone who contributed to the Blue America IE committee. (The music was contributed by The Units.) That was the money that paid for those Warnock ads.

And we do owe Trump a debt of gratitude for digging up Herschel Walker out of nowhere-- or out of Texas anyway-- and getting him the Georgia Republican Party Senate nomination. An even slightly more plausible candidate very well may have won. All across the country, not just in Georgia, Trump's kiss of death has been a real boon for the Democratic Party this cycle. What will they do without him?