From Red Wave To Red Ripple-- Will A Blue Wave Materialize This Fall?

The media narrative about Tuesday’s elections, jumped right over the primaries and went to the special election to fill the open Antonio Delgado seat in upstate New York, which looked like a slam dunk for Republican Marc Molinaro but was won by Democrat Pat Ryan (51.9% to 48.1%). Ryan campaigned heavily on Roe v Wade in this Republican-leaning swing district. And it was exactly what most voters wanted to hear-- and wanted to vote on.

Steven Holden is running for Congress in a district Trump won in New York. His opponent is a far right extremist, Claudia Tenney, who voters have tossed out in the past. Today, Holden told me that “Protecting abortion rights, and women’s rights in general, have been a centerpiece in our campaign. NY-24 is the birthplace of Women’s Rights in Seneca Falls, where I have spoken on the issue many times at the National Women’s Rights Memorial to local and state media. Our supporters have contacted 7,000 women, regardless of party affiliation, about this issue, and we have received an outpouring of support, both volunteer and financial. Claudia Tenney is supported by Phyllis Schlafly’s Eagle Forum and the Concerned Women for America, both of which are women’s groups that support curtailing women’s rights. Along with Veterans’ issues and infrastructure, codifying abortion rights is a ringing issue in this race. Finally, Claudia Tenney just co-sponsored legislation with Marjorie Taylor Greene called the Protecting Children’s Innocence Act. This is another culture war issue she has drummed up going after transgendered youth banning needed medical care. This is to deflect from her votes denying help to veterans, seniors, rural America and women.”

This morning I spoke with Angélica Dueñas, the San Fernando Valley progressive who is taking on corrupt political hack Tony Cárdenas in November. She’s pissed off and told me her “community has been held down by poor leadership for too long. Democrats like Tony Cárdenas have been in office for decades and have had over seventy years to codify Roe v. Wade into law, knew that this decision was coming for months, and is still caught with his pants down. I’m tired of it. Time is up for ineffective and useless leaders like him. Time is up for politicians that only talk the talk and run away when it’s time to act. Time is up for politicians that pretend to care about issues that impact our lives and then do nothing to help us. Time is up and we are taking control of our future because politicians like Tony Cárdenas can’t be trusted.” (Please consider contributing to Angelica’s 100% grassroots campaign here.)

In the Texas gubernatorial race, Beto just started running ads about Greg Abbott’s extremism on the issue of women’s Choice. One is just above and here’s another one— both on TV in Texas right now.

The NY Times reported this morning that Beto’s campaign is “seeking to harness anger among women at the overturning of Roe v. Wade and to direct that anger at Abbott. Its two ads were released on the day that a so-called trigger law— made possible by the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade— went into effect in Texas. The law, signed last year by Abbott, bans abortion with no exception for rape or incest and with only limited medical exceptions.

The Republicans are freaking out over how swing voters are reacting to the striking dow of Roe. It’s not going to matter in brain-dead blood red districts where hart right Republicans don’t need moderates and independent voters to win. In Texas, for example, Ronny Jackson’s panhandle district has a partisan lean of R+45, the third most politically backward place in North America. Jackson has no problem on the horizon. Neither do Joey Arrington and Louie Gohmert replacement cog Nate Moran, whose districts are the only two further right, with partisan leans, respectively of R+53 and R+50. But where the issue could hurt Texas Republicans are in south Texas, where progressive Michelle Vallejo will face off against reactionary anti-Choice fanatic Monica De La Cruz in a district (TX-15) with an even partisan lean. TX-23 is also seeing a hotly contested battle for the seat Tony Gonzalez currently holds. His Democratic opponent, John Lira probably wouldn’t have had much of a shot before the Supreme Court overturned Roe. Lira: “Government should not have a role, or legal standing, in denying women of their individual rights to make their own reproductive decisions. Last year, Texas passed Senate Bill 8 (SB8) which makes reproductive care very difficult to access in Texas… I am whole-heartedly committed to ensuring healthcare continues to expand and improve for women in America. I support federal protections for women’s rights to determine which medical procedures to undertake privately with their doctor and believe Congress has a role and responsibility to protect those rights by codifying a woman’s right to choose into law. That also means ensuring local access to medical clinics, including Planned Parenthood, and medical professionals that can provide essential reproductive healthcare services. We the People must stop the Republicans’ attempt to erase generations of progress and permanently restrict the advancement of reproductive healthcare services for women in the U.S.”

Despite brutal partisan gerrymandering there are still enough swing districts in the country to hold the balance of power in the House. The GOP was hoping to hold onto the ones with GOP incumbents and knock out Democrats in others. Now they are getting the uncomfortable feeling that they’re going to be playing more defense and less offense. Districts that I think could be most impacted by the extremist Supreme Court decision:

• AZ-01 (David Schweikert)- R+7

• AZ-04 (Greg Stanton)- D+1

• AZ-06 (open)- R+7

• CA-13 (open)- D+7

• CA-40 (Young Kim)- R+4

• CA-41 (Ken Calvert)- R+7

• CA-45 (Michelle Steel)- D+5

• CA-47 (Katie Porter)- D+6

• CA-49 (Mike Levin)- D+5

• CO-07 (Ed Perlmutter)- D+6

• CO-08 (open)- R+3

• FL-15 (open)- R+7

• FL-27 (Maria Salazar)- D+1

• FL-28 (Carlos Gimenez)- R+4

• GA-02 (Sanford Bishop)- D+4

• IL-06 (Sean Casten)- D+6

• IL-13 (open)- D+7

• IL-14 (Lauren Underwood)- D+7

• IL-17 (open)- D+4

• IN-01 (Frank Marvin)- D+7

• IA-01 (Mariannette Miller-Meeks)- R+4

• IA-02 (Ashley Hinson)- R+6

• IA-03 (Cindy Axne)- R+2

• KS-03 (Sharice Davids)- R+3

• MD-06 (David Trone)- R+1

• MI-03 (open)- D+3

• MI-07 (Elissa Slotkin)- R+4

• MI-08 (Dan Kildee)- R+1

• MI-10 (open)- R+6

• MN-02 (Angie Craig)- D+1

• NE-02 (Don Bacon)- R+3

• NV-01 (Dina Titus)- D+4

• NV-03 (Susie Lee)- D+2

• NV-04 (Steven Horsford)- D+5

• NH-01 (Chris Pappas)- R+1

• NH-02 (Ann Kuster)- D+2

• NJ-05 (Josh Gottheimer)- D+7

• NJ-07 (Tom Malinowski)- R+3

• NM-02 (Yvette Herrell)- D+4

• NM-03 (Teresa Hernandez)- D+5

• NY-01 (open)- R+5

• NY-02 (Andrew Gabarino)- R+6

• NY-03 (open)- D+4

• NY-17 (Sean Maloney)- D+7

• NY-18 (open)- D+3

• NY-19 (open)- R+1

• NY-22 (open)- D+2

• NC-13 (open)- R+3

• OH-01 (Steve Chabot)- D+3

• OH-09 (Marcy Kaptur)- R+6

• OH-13 (open)- R+2

• OR-05 (open)- D+3

• OR-06 (open)- D+7

• PA-01 (Brian Fitzpatrick)- even

• PA-07 (Susan Wild)- R+4

• PA-17 (open)- D+1

• VA-07 (Abigail Spanberger)- D+2

• WA-08 (Kim Schrier)- even

• WI-01 (Bryan Steil)- R+6

This electoral Roe effect probably helps explain results in the brand new poll from Franklin & Marshall released today. “Support for abortion rights in Pennsylvania appears to have increased somewhat since May. Nearly nine in ten registered Pennsylvania voters believes abortion should be legal under certain circumstances (52%) or under any circumstance (37%). Nearly three in five (59%) registered voters oppose amending the state constitution to say there is no constitutional right to abortion in the state… Democrat John Fetterman currently holds an advantage over Republican Mehmet Oz in the 2022 race for Pennsylvania US Senator, 43% to 30%… Democrat Josh Shapiro currently holds an advantage over Republican Doug Mastriano in the 2022 race for Pennsylvania Governor, 44% to 33%.”

And you know what will help even more? If the Republicans challenge Biden’s popular partial student loan forgiveness plan in court. This morning, writing for the Wall Street Journal, Andrew Restuccia and Gabriel Rubin reported that “Biden’s plan will test the legal limits of the federal government’s authority to cancel student debt. Its success could depend on how courts would interpret the education secretary’s powers under the 1965 Higher Education Act, which allows the secretary to ‘consent to modification’ of loans, and ‘compromise, waive, or release’ unspecified amounts of student debt. Advocates for broad cancellation say the lack of explicit constraints in the law is deliberate, giving the executive branch flexibility with its ‘compromise authority’ to manage its relationship with borrowers. They note that presidents of both parties have used the law to forgive debt on a more-limited scale.”