Blue Wave Headed This Way?
Yesterday, James Rainey reported something that isn’t exactly earth shattering: Kamala and Tim are building a huge lead among likely California voters. It isn’t all hatred for Trump. Polling shows that her entry into the race “has galvanized traditional Democratic voting groups and those not aligned with a political party, helping extend the Democrats’ already large advantage over Trump.
In 2020, California had very high turnout and Biden beat Trump 11,110,250 (63.5%) to 6,006,429 (34.3%). It was the highest percentage of the vote for any candidate since FDR’s landslide in 1936 (66.9%). My bet is that Kamala will do at least as well. But the new poll by Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies shows her leading Trump 59-34%, with plenty of undecided voters who will likely settle on her in November.
Her surge is fueled by young voters, Black voters, progressives and Latinos. Also, people who don’t belong to either party and those who describe themselves as “‘moderates,’ favor Harris at significantly higher levels than they did Biden. This morning Melanie Zanona reported that “The belief among senior Democrats is that Harris will help activate their base and boost fundraising, particularly in California districts where there are more young voters, women and voters of color. Think Los Angeles, Orange County, Palm Springs, San Diego, etc. If Democrats get more turnout among those groups— whom they feared would stay home if President Joe Biden was the nominee— then they don’t need to win over as many white, male or non-college-educated voters… Democrats say they have already seen signs of newfound enthusiasm on the ground. We’re told Democratic candidate Derek Tran, who is vying to unseat Rep. Michelle Steel (R-CA), is opening a second field office next week to help capture the buzz. It’s a district Biden won in 2020 and covers parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties. Even some Republicans are concerned about Harris’ value in the state. One high-level GOP strategist is conducting a focus group this week to assess Harris’ impact on the seat represented by Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA), whose sprawling district was redrawn after the 2020 census to include more wealthy and liberal areas in Palm Springs.”
There are 6 districts on the DCCC red to blue list— 5 Republican held plus one open swing seat— and these are all districts where the party will invest heavily in the credible expectation of flipping the seats. A Kamala-powered wave will help all 6. Unfortunately, none of the six are progressives and two of them— Adam Gray and Rudy Salas— are among the worst Democrats running for Congress anywhere in the country. And by “worst” I mean proven corrupt and proudly, aggressively conservative. Gray and Salas were both bribe-taking DINOs in the state legislature, both of whom were defeated last cycle— despite immense amounts of money wasted on their campaigns by the DCCC and despite Biden having won both their districts. If they win, they will make the Democratic caucus worse.
Of the 6 candidates, Gray and Salas are certainly the worst but if you’re looking for progressives to help build a strong machine in DC for working families, California won’t be of any use this year. Gray and Salas were endorsed by the Blue Dogs, of course, but so was Will Rollins (who at least looks like a fighter). All 3 of them— plus Derek Tran and George Whitesides— were also endorsed by the corporate wing of the Democratic Party, the New Dems. The new Dems also endorsed 3 other corporate Dems— show-ins Gil Cisneros and Sam Liccardo and Jessica Morse. I remember Dave Min as an asshole from Chuck Schumer’s Wall Street team who ran against Katie Porter. Now he’s making an effort to come across as a progressive— although as a state senator— he sure wasn’t one.
So, yes, a blue wave in California is going to help flip control of the House, but at what cost? A worse Democratic Party in DC— which is bad enough already. I feel good about Democratic prospects in Wisconsin in November. Biden won the state narrowly in 2020— 1,630,866 (49.4%) to 1,610,184 (48.8%). Current polling averages show Kamala likely to do significantly better. Polling also shows progressive Senator Tammy Baldwin well-positioned for reelection against wealthy, confused MAGAt Eric Hovde. There are two flippable House seats in Wisconsin, but both have exceptionally bad Democratic nominees— Peter Barca against Bryan Steil and Rebecca Cooke against Derrick Van Orden— that will likely preclude Democratic victories. On paper both seats are within grasp. WI-01, Steil’s district, has an R+6 partisan lean and Van Orden— who has a very bad profile due to weird behavior— represents a swing district with an R+9 lean.
Let me walk away from the poor quality of the 4 candidates for a moment and look at something indirectly related: yesterday’s best news in Wisconsin. The two constitutional amendments put on the ballot by Republicans in the state legislature were soundly defeated in a high turnout primary. The two amendments were meant to give the conservative, gerrymandered legislature greater control over federal funds that were allocated to the state. Democrats mounted a multimillion dollar campaign against them and both lost by double-digits.
After the results were announced, progressive state Senator Chris Larson, one of the leaders of the opposition against them, told us that “The defeat of the two constitutional amendments is a clear sign that Wisconsin voters are done with allowing Republican power grabs. They see what they’ve been up to, how it has perverted our democracy, and they spoke with a resounding voice that they want a better, more-balanced Wisconsin that can’t shut out the people anymore. We’ll do it again this November by defeating Trump and defeating Project 2025 and all the insidious power grabs baked into it. The people were heard last night and will be heard November 5th!”
And the people in both of those congressional districts were among those voting against the amendments. I don’t have the results by congressional district yet, but let’s look at the counties that make up the two districts. First, WI-01, where Steil is defending his seat.
Kenosha Co.- 57% no
Racine Co.- 51% no
Walworth Co.- 47% no
Rock Co.- 65% no
Next WI-03, Van Orden’s district (These are only the counties with significant populations)
La Crosse Co.- 69% no
Eau Clare Co.- 68% no
Wood Co.- 50% no
Portage Co.- 62% no
Chippewa Co.- 52% no
Grant Co.- 58% no
Monroe Co.- 52% no
Dunn Co.- 55% no
With plausible Democratic candidates, flipping these two seats would be far more likely than they appear today. Both gutless careerists were endorsed by the New Dems and Cooke was also endorsed by the Blue Dogs. They are strictly for party-line voters. Barca’s brief service in Congress and long service in the state legislature have shown him to be worse than the average corporate Dem. Cooke, unfortunately, promises to be even worse.
This is the first time since 2006 when Blue America began that we could only find one House candidate to endorse going into November. We had to invent a new category— flipping the House blue with slightly less stringent requirements (but don’t worry; just slightly… there will never be anyone like Barca or Cooke, Gray or Salas included).
The ability of the DCCC to find and back the worst possible candidates never fails to amaze me.