Le Pen's Fake Moderation Didn't Work This Time
Le Monde ran an article— picked up and translated into English by The Guardian— yesterday: The French republic is under threat. We are 1,000 historians and we cannot remain silent. The 1,000 historians are listed, alphabetically, here. The last time France had a fascist government, Marshal Philippe Pétain’s (1940-44), is was the Nazi collaborationists based in Vichy. After the German defeat, Pétain was tried and convicted of treason and sentenced to death, later commuted to life in prison and, after the onset of severe Alzheimer’s, commuted to confinement in a hospital. In other word’s, France’s experiment with fascism worked out badly.
The Le Monde article notes that for the first time since the end of Vichy, “the far right is at the gates of power in France. As historians from differing political backgrounds who share an attachment to democratic values and the rule of law, we cannot remain silent in the face of an alarming prospect that we still have the capacity to resist. Despite a superficial makeover, the National Rally (RN) remains fundamentally the successor and heir of the National Front, founded in 1972 by people nostalgic for Vichy and French Algeria. It inherited its programme, its obsessions and its personnel. It is deeply rooted in the history of the French far right, shaped by xenophobic and racist nationalism, antisemitism, violence and contempt for parliamentary democracy. Let us not be fooled by the rhetorical and tactical prudence with which the RN is preparing its seizure of power. This party does not represent the conservative or national right but poses the greatest threat to the republic and democracy.
The RN citizenship policy known as “national preference,” renamed “national priority,” remains the ideological heart of its project. This is contrary to the republican values of equality and fraternity and its implementation would require the amendment of the French constitution.
…Beyond that, the RN’s programme includes an escalation of security measures that would undermine civil liberties. There is no need to delve into the distant past to become aware of the threat. Everywhere, when the far right comes to power through the ballot box, it hastens to bring justice, the media, education and research to heel. The governments that Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella openly admire, such as that of Viktor Orban in Hungary, give us an idea of their project: an authoritarian populism, where checks and balances are weakened, opposition muzzled and the freedom of the press restricted.
There is no democracy without a free and dynamic public space, without quality information, independent of political or financial interference.
The privatisation of public broadcasting, which is included in the RN’s programme, would destroy an essential part of our public life. Can we imagine [the billionaire media magnate] Vincent Bolloré, a known supporter of the far right, incorporating France Culture, France Inter and France 2 into his media empire, as he did with Le Journal du Dimanche, Europe 1 or Hachette, with the consequences that we know will follow?
Committed as we are to the scholarly practice of history, we can only be deeply concerned about the instrumentalisation of the past and the attacks on the freedom of research that can now be expected. The RN’s manifesto for education, entirely focused on the return to a teaching of history that is national, even nationalistic, and nostalgic, is the antithesis of the requirements of historical research, based on the critical method, the spirit of nuance and international cooperation.
Finally, the RN leadership has never hidden its fascination with Vladimir Putin, having already gone as far as to openly and publicly appear at his side in the Kremlin in 2017. At a time when the Russian president poses a mortal danger to Europe and continues to assert his virulent hostility to western democratic societies, can we allow a party that he has endorsed to come to power? How can we envisage weakening Europe in this way at a time when it so badly needs, on the contrary, to assert its unity and determination?
France must not turn its back on its history. Until now, the far right has come to power only in the turmoil of military defeat and foreign occupation in 1940. We are not willing to resign ourselves to a new defeat, that of the values which, since 1789, have been the basis of France’s political settlement and its national solidarity.
This is not an ordinary election. At stake is the defence of democracy and the Republic against their enemies at a decisive moment in our shared history. In the first round, we did not all vote for the same candidates, nor for the same parties. On Sunday, we call on our fellow citizens in every constituency to vote to ensure the defeat of the RN candidate.
These were the final seat projections when campaigning ended Friday:
France’s national assembly has 577 seats, so 289 for a majority. Everyone thought the fascists would come in with the most seats even if they missed an absolute majority. But the strategic anti-fascist withdrawals of candidacies between Macron’s center-right party and the left-wing coalition, wrecked Le Pen’s fascists chances today— than and a huge turnout of voters who skipped round-one but got the message about the danger at the door. The exit polling all showed the left-green coalition with the most seats, followed by the Macronists, with the fascists struggling in third place. Ipsos first projection of seats— backed by other firms soon after:
NPF (Leftists)- 180-215
Ensemble (Macronists)- 150-180
RN (Fascists)- 120-150
Marine Le Pen’s sister, Marie-Caroline Le Pen, was beaten today in the 4th district of Sarthe, where she narrowly lost out to the leftist candidate Elise Leboucher 50.23% to 49.77%.
One fascist sore loser, Marion Maréchal whined on BFMTV said that this national assembly is not representative of what the French people think. Another fascist sore loser, Jordan Bardella, who had already been measuring the drapes in the prime minister’s office, told fellow fascists tonight that the “unnatural” and “dishonourable alliance” has “deprived the French people” of a fascist victory: “Tonight, these alliances throw France into the arms of the far left of Jean-Luc Mélenchon... Everyone understands today that the arrangements orchestrated by the Élysée… won't go anywhere” and claimed he understands the “frustration” of French people, adding “For months now a wind of hope has picked up and it will never stop blowing.”
Writing for Le Monde, Julie Carriat reported that “The far-right Rassemblement National (RN) could obtain the largest group in the French Assemblée Nationale, with 175 to 205 seats, including its new allies who joined from the conservative Les Républicains (LR) party, but without an absolute majority. It is therefore looking like there will be an unstable Assemblée, or even alternative coalitions… Two days before the second round of voting, the expected turnout remains extremely strong, ranging between 66% and 70%, compared with the 66.7% turnout in the first round. While the far right looks set to double its numbers, the second-ranked bloc, the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) left-wing alliance, could win 145 to 175 seats… In third place, President Emmanuel Macron's coalition formed by MoDem, Renaissance and Horizons could drop from 245 seats in the previous legislature to between 118 to 148 seats. The presidential party, Renaissance, in particular, could fall from 169 MPs to less than a hundred (78 to 94).”
The Vendée is a backward, Catholic, rural region in western France up against the Atlantic, south of Brittany. It’s been a very right-wing area for a very long time and is probably most famous for its murderous revolt against the Revolution in 1793, offended by the Revoltionary government’s crackdownon the predatory Catholic Church— and also offended by universal male conscription (the levée en masse, introduced in 1793). Almost a quarter million people were killed in the fighting before the revolt was crushed in 1796.
The rebellion began in March 1793 when peasants, led by local aristocrats who supported the monarchy and members of the reactionary clergy, refused to comply with conscription orders. The rebels, known as the "Catholic and Royal Army," initially enjoyed several military successes— capturing Cholet and Saumur and threatening Nantes— against poorly organized revolutionary forces. In Paris, the National Convention labeled the rebels as counter-revolutionaries and royalists, and decided on a harsh military response, including a brutal scorched-earth policy involving mobile columns, known as the “infernal columns.” The region was left devastated, with many villages destroyed and a significant portion of the population displaced or dead. The harsh methods used by the revolutionary government (Paris) fostered a deep resentment that persisted for generations.
To this day, the counter-revolution in the Vendée is commemorated. and celebrated by royalists and fascisss as a symbol of resistance against Paris and progressivism. The Vendée is still a backward region with far right politics. Le Pen’s National Rally has gained significant traction there and in other grievance-driven, xenophobic areas that feel neglected by the central government and disillusioned with mainstream political parties. The fascists made significant gains in the first round of voting, leading in several constituencies and winning outright in some areas.
In the the frist round last weekend, 1st Constituency (La Roche-sur-Yon Nord / Challans / Les Essarts) saw fascist Simon-Pierre Paulin narrowly outpoll conservative incumbent Philippe Latombe. In the 2nd Constituency (La Roche-sur-Yon Sud / Talmont Saint Hilaire) the fascist, Marie-Christine Ébran is a close second to conservative incumbent Béatrice Bellamy. In the coastal 3rd Constituency (Noirmoutier / Les Sables d'Olonne) fascist Pascal Dubin led conservative incumbent Stéphane Buchou by about a point. Fascist Stéphane Buffetaut led conservative incumbent Pierre Henriet by 3 points in Fontenay-le-Comte – Luçon. Even in the one district where the fascist did relatively poorly (Les Herbiers-Montaigu, though still well enough to make the second round) it was fascist Jacques Proux against another extreme right candidate, Republican Véronique Besse, who has pledged to support Le Pen’s coalition. The Vendée— still a troublesome fascist hellhole.
[UPDATE: The fascists lost all 5 races after the leftist candidates withdrew. Latombe won with 59.03%, Bellamy won with 53.2%, Buchou won with 55.7%, Henriet won with 57.9% and Besse, the less fascist of the two fascists, won with 51.6%.]
Yesterday, the NY Times reported that voters opting for the fascists are largely tired of the status quo and willing “to roll the dice for change. Le Pen’s party— one that has softened its image and smoothed its message, but retained a core anti-immigrant and euro-skeptic creed— seems set to become the largest in France after the second round of voting, even if it now appears unlikely to win an absolute majority. To say a taboo has fallen against voting for the far right is insufficient; it has disintegrated in a tidal wave of National Rally support. Tensions have risen across the country as a result. The Interior Ministry has announced that 30,000 police officers will be deployed on Sunday ‘to prevent the risk of disorder.’”
Roger Cohen described RN areas on France that sound like MAGA areas of the U.S.:
Schools close. Train stations close. Post offices close. Doctors and dentists leave. Cafés and small convenience stores close, squeezed by megastores. People need to go further for services, jobs and food. Many travel in their old cars but are encouraged by the authorities to switch to electric cars, which are priced way beyond their means.
At the same time, since the war in Ukraine, gas and electricity bills have shot up, leading some to switch off their heating last winter. They feel invisible and only just get by; and on their televisions they see President Emmanuel Macron explaining the critical importance of such abstract policies as European “strategic autonomy.” It is not their concern.
Along comes the National Rally, saying its focus is on people, not ideas, the purchasing power of people above all.
… Into this sort of vacuum, across the country, the National Rally stepped. The party says it has shed its xenophobic, bigoted past, but every now and again… the old tropes resurface, rising like Dr. Strangelove’s gloved arm.
All this doesn’t mean there’s going to be a viable government formed any time soon— if ever. The Dutch elections were in November anti took them ’til this month to form a cabinet. The French could take longer, especially with Macron hating both the left and the fascists about equally… maybe the fascists a little more. But the leftist coalition partner with the most seats Unbowed France, is headed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who, like Le Pen, is an anti-Ukraine Putin ally. No one’s letting him form a government and his party has more seats than the Socialists, the party Macron would have less problems with. That amounts to a hung Parliament, at least for now.
Jon Henley reported this evening that “The former prime minister Édouard Philippe, the longstanding Macron ally François Bayrou and the Greens leader Marine Tondelier were among those to say last week an anti-RN coalition, from the moderate left to the centre right, could unite around a basic legislative programme.” If the Socialists agree, problem solved… although that would drive Mélenchon and his followers up the wall. This kind of “mainstream coalition, while possible in principle, would be hard to build given the parties’ diverging positions on issues such as tax, pensions and green investment. It could also be vulnerable to censure motions backed by both LFI (Mélenchon’s hard left) and the RN (Le Pen’s fascists).
Whatever is agreed (or not), it seems likely that France is heading for a lengthy spell of political uncertainty and instability, potentially characterised by at best a minimum of legislative progress, and at worst by parliamentary deadlock.
Dominique Reynié, a political scientist, said a bare-bones government might be no bad thing, portraying it as a “government of reparation” that might steady the ship and try to “fix what’s not working” for a population tired of political upsets.
But others have warned that the far-right RN and perhaps Mélenchon’s LFI would portray any stopgap solutions as a plot by the political elites to deprive them of power, leading to an even more destructive presidential election campaign in 2027.
Well WHEW. At least the fascists did far less well than expected. That’s something. I did not know Melenchon is a Putin supporter and anti Ukraine. What’s that about for a left winger? Not good at all.
France has more than two parties forced on their voters. So voters tend to think a bit. As Guest below notes, not without cause, those voters can and will take advantage of both the plethora of parties and the rules to weed out the worst early on. If they can.
I also note a few parallels between them and us/US.
"Dominique Reynié, a political scientist, said a bare-bones government might be no bad thing, portraying it as a “government of reparation” that might steady the ship and try to “fix what’s not working” for a population tired of political upsets."
So a political "scientist" can be dumber than shit. America is proof that "bare bones" IS a bad thing, tha…
Many French voters vote for the far right in the the first rounds of both presidential and parliamentary elections as a protest vote; they know that in many instances the far right candidate will not win in the first round and they can vote for the more moderate candidate, of whatever party, in the run-off. And many voters don't bother with the first round at all.
So I find it difficult to judge the true support for the RN from vote totals. (The RN knows these strategies well, of course, so their prime ministerial candidate doing the boo-hoo about third place candidates dropping out in the run-offs is just crocodile tears.)