Trump endorses candidates for a variety of reasons. Sometimes, as with Blake Masters and JD Vance he’s paid off by billionaires. Other times it’s because the candidate has said nice things about it. Sometimes it’s because he like the way the candidate looks— or would look on a TV reality show. And frequently Trump’s endorsees lose. I don’t mean when he just endorses a sure-thing incumbent. His crazy extremist candidates lose and cause major problems for the GOP— like losing the Senate, blowing a chance at a red wave… things like that. And now one of his worst-even endorsements— Kari Lake for the Arizona Senate seat— could really bite him in the ass, as she pulls down his own campaign in super-crucial Arizona.
Among Senate seats that Trump screwed up for Republicans were in Alabama (Roy Moore), Pennsylvania (Dr. Oz), Arizona (Blake Masters), Georgia (Herschel Walker), Montana (Matt Rosendale), Nevada (Adam Laxalt), Alaska (Kelly Tshibaka), and New Hampshire (Don Bolduc). States where Trump lost gubernatorial races for the GOP include Michigan (Tudor Dixon), Maryland (Dan Cox), Pennsylvania (Doug Mastriano), Arizona (Kari Lake), Kansas (Kris Kobach), New Mexico (Mark Ronchetti), Illinois (Darren Bailey), Wisconsin (Tim Michels)...
And he endorsed all kinds of crackpots for House seats the GOP should have won but then lost because of, once again, candidate quality— Sandy Smith (NC), J.R. Majewski (OH), Joe Kent (WA), Karoline Leavitt (NH), Bo Hines (NC), Sarah Palin (AK), Yesli Vegas (VA), Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (OH), John Gibbs (MI)…
Trump also endorsed Brazilian fascist Jair Bolsonaro, who lost and is now fightingoff multiple legal challenges including inciting an uprising whenhelost his reelection bid and a Saudi jewels scandal. He's probably going to end up in prison.
In November we'll see some Trump retreads trying again, Lake being the most high profile of the sour lot. Every poll shows her losing to Ruben Gallego, even polls by Republican firms. The money race has also been going poorly for Lake. Gallego raised $30,899,303 and has $9,246,977 in his war-chest while Lake has just $2,793,764 left of the $9,935,179 she raised. So far the DSCC and its allies have spent around $8 million helping Gallego while right-wing groups have spent around $3 million on Lake’s behalf. Yesterday, writing for the Arizona Republic, Ronald Hansen reported that the GOP establishment doesn’t believe in her, despite Trump’s endorsement: “there are few signs of a major lifeline from GOP-aligned groups. Of the eight most competitive Senate races across the country, Lake has drawn the least Republican-supportive money in future television ad reservations, a key data point widely viewed in political circles as a sign of serious competition. National Republicans, it seems, are showing with their wallets a unique skepticism that Lake can beat her Democratic opponent, U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego.”
Barrett Marson, an Arizona-based Republican campaign consultant not involved in the Senate race, sees echoes of the 2022 Senate race in which Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) didn’t see Arizona’s Blake Masters as electable.
“I think everyone is heeding the McConnell message of ‘candidate quality matters,’” Marson said.
…AdImpact, a nonpartisan organization that tracks political spending in the media, showed future reservations for Lake and Republican-aligned organizations on her behalf totaling $12 million. Gallego and Democratic-aligned organizations planned almost $65 million.
…Much of Lake’s messaging involves “hybrid” ads with the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which endorsed Lake in February. The coordinated ads allow campaigns to split costs with the NRSC, but it also limits the amount of time spent on a named opponent, presumably diluting its impact.
Lake’s spending disparity lingered after the primary, too.
Gallego has reserved about $43 million in time for ads in the general election. Lake has reserved about $7 million, according to AdImpact.
Unless donations went viral for Lake in the weeks since her underwhelming primary win, it appears she and her GOP allies won’t come close to matching the presence on screens that Gallego and his Democratic allies expect to have.
…Lake repeatedly has dismissed Gallego’s fundraising edge over her, vaguely suggesting without evidence that Democrats and Gallego may be getting money from mysterious sources.
They “take in a ton of money from God knows where and God knows who, and he’s going to run ads making himself look like he’s just a middle-of-the-road kind of guy. And it couldn’t be further from the truth,” she said in an April example.
Money is only part of the problem that Lake is facing. The calendar is also becoming a factor.
Early voting begins Oct. 9, about seven weeks from now. Once voting begins, ballots flow in rapidly across the state and campaigns are divided between pushing out their messages and chasing votes they think they can still get.
Candidates who are trailing have limited time and a rising price tag to reach the public to change their minds or convince them to vote at all.
Marson noted that it’s not just a matter of booking ads. People need to see them— repeatedly— before the message takes root, he said.
In general, it’s believed an ad needs to be seen at least 10 times to have a chance to change voter behavior.
“Defining Ruben (Gallego) as a liberal is a key to victory,” Marson said. “Without that, he gets a free pass.”
While Taylor sees Gallego with a key advantage, she warns against presumptions that the race is settled.
“I don’t think you can ever say that a race in Arizona is over. I still expect this to be a close contest,” she said. “But I look at the fundamentals of the race right now… and Gallego has a small but notable lead.”
She’s also afraid to debate Gallego, who released a statement noting that he believes “Arizonans deserve to hear firsthand about the choice in this election between a Marine combat veteran with a lifetime of service and someone who is only in this race for herself. I will spend the next 80 days laser-focused on bringing Arizonans across the political spectrum together to build a better Arizona.” If she doesn’t show up for the debate, Gallego gets all the TV and radio time for himself.
Kari Lske is as phony as Trump. She appears to trowel on her makeup and is as hideous as Medusa without it. This trollop isn’t qualified to clean hotel rooms.