Expect A Red To Blue Flip In Central New York-- Unless The DCCC Screws It Up Again

Sarah Klee Hood Can Beat Williams, Mannion Is Way Too Conservative

Conservatiive John Mannion, progressive Sarah Klee Hood

If you follow the political press, they’re always talking about the congressional districts that voted for Biden but that were won by Republicans last year. California and New York have the most. There are 5 in California and New York has 6. These are the 6 New York districts with the margin of Biden’s win and the partisan lean:

• NY-01 (Nick LaLota) +0.2— partisan lean R+5

• NY-03 (George Santos) +8.2— partisan lean D+4

• NY-04 (Anthony D’Esposito) +14.5— partisan lean D+10

• NY-17 (Mike Lawler) +10.1— partisan lean D+7

• NY-19 (Marc Molinaro) +4.6— partisan lean R+1

• NY-22 (Brandon Williams) +7.5— partisan lean D+2

There’s a decent chance that New York will be redistricted before the election. The case is making its way through the courts right now. If that happens, most of these districts will become bluer. Certainly NY-22 will and that’s the district I want to talk about today. Most of the voters live in Onondaga County, Syracuse and its suburbs (a blue county). With a sizable number of voters in Oneida County (red), some in Madison County (also red) and a minuscule number in a red part of Oswego County.

Last cycle, voters were asked to pick between a Republican, Brandon Williams, who pretended to be a mainstream conservative, and a Republican-lite Democrap, Francis Conole. So… a district that Biden won by 7.5 points, slipped into the hands of the GOP because Democratic voters were unenthusiastic about a crappy DCCC-Sam Bankman Fried candidate. This is how the counties voted:

• Onondaga

Williams- 74.055 (44%)

Conole- 94,265 (56%)

• Oneida

Williams- 46,143 (62%)

Conole- 27,835 (38%)

• Madison

Williams- 15,240 (59%)

Conole- 10,786 (41%)

• Oswego

Williams- 106 (80%)

Conole- 27 (20%)

All 4 counties voted more Republican than they had in 2020. The Democrats need to ask themselves why and what to do about that this cycle… aside from just hoping that a presidential year will turn out more Democratic voters who will break with their tradition of splitting their vote between a Democratic candidate for president and a Republican candidate for Congress. If they decide to find another Republican-lite candidate to try to harvest GOP voters in Oneida, Madison and Oswego counties, they have one they can turn to in the primary: John Mannion, arguably the most conservative Democrat in the state Senate, sure to turn off the Democratic base and unlikely to lure any Republican voters away from Williams. In other words— another sure loser. If the Democrats instead decide to go for a turn-out-the-base strategy, there’s a primary candidate for that too: Sarah Klee Hood, an actual Democrat with progressive instincts. Unlike Mannion, for example, she is an advocate of universal healthcare.

As far as finances go, it’s worth noting that in 2022, the conservative Democrat, Conole, spent $3 million and Williams spent $910,000. The DCCC and Pelosi’s PAC spent another $3.4 million helping Conole. (Sam Bankman Fried put another half million in stolen FTX funds into Conole’s campaign). All that money does not make up for a shit candidate.

Here’s the good news for the Democrats. Whenever you hear about how the other Republicans in the districts Biden won trying to go in a more mainstream direction, Williams is never included. He has stuck with the MAGA wing of the party on every vote. Recently Syracuse.com reported that Williams “used a string of staff firings and departures to remake his office on Capitol Hill into one with stronger ties to the far right and former President Donald Trump’s MAGA movement. Williams, who has been in office eight months, has replaced his three most senior aides in Washington with political appointees from Trump’s White House.”

Voters are already getting sick of Williams’ flip-flops and lies and his out-of-touch estremism.

This was the ProgressivePunch crucial vote score for the 6 New York incumbents in districts that Biden won in 2020.

• Mike Lawler- 4.79%

• Marc Molinaro- 2.72%

• George Santos- 1.37%

• Brandon Williams- 0.69%

• Anthony D’Esposito- 0.68%

• Nick LaLota- 0.68%