Election Reflections— Sorting Through The Wreckage

-by Patrick Toomey

Since Tuesday, post-election pontification and punditry have become a cottage industry. There are, however, a few points that do not seem to have been highlighted in the commentary that I have seen thus far. They include:

1. This debacle must be seen in the context of the past 5 years (if not longer). Past was clearly prologue this time. Paul Lukasiak set forth a “how we got here” timeline from 2020-2024 right here.

   
   

2. The one point to add to that timeline is that it was painfully obvious all along that re-running Biden was a one-way ticket to oblivion. He was, however, the party standard bearer until he (finally) withdrew under extreme duress on July 21. Had he not stumbled and staggered through the only presidential debate ever conducted in the month of June, he would have remained the standard bearer, and he would have “led” the donkey to an utter catastrophe.

   
   

3. On Friday, Nancy Pelosi, in a rare breach of protocol, publicly bemoaned both Biden’s failure to drop out earlier and the absence of an open Dem primary. Without expressly stating so, she was commenting on Kamala Harris’ capabilities as a nominee. Since they’re both San Franciscans, Pelosi presumably has known Harris for years and knows far more about her and her capabilities than any of us know. While Harris’ record as a presidential candidate in 2020 and 2024 speaks for itself, Pelosi’s comments are worth noting in that context.

   
   

4. In 2024, the Dems consciously chose to run on the same memes— Dobbs and Trump— that they ran on in 2022. In the 2022 House races, GOP candidates obtained 50.6% of the total vote— Democratic Party candidates obtained 47.8%. Thus far, Trump has 50.6% of the popular vote and Harris has 47.9%. Employing the 2022 strategy in 2024 produced essentially the same result. The delusion that holding the margin of defeat down in 2022 was a “victory” and that employing the 2022 strategy could lead the party to victory this year contributed mightily to this loss.

   
   

5. I was hoping that a Trump defeat would lead to GOP rounds of recrimination. Instead, we’re now seeing that with the Dems, including the tired tripe that the party is “too liberal” and must move to a mythical “center.” Few seem to be addressing economic class issues— the elephant in the room that the party mandarins and their on-air and on-line enablers invariably ignore. Thomas Frank, as always, offers cogent commentary on this point.

6. One last time, I will note the moral bankruptcy and the political stupidity of eagerly embracing the Cheney Clan. For starters, Trump’s unsuccessful attempt to steal the 2020 election was a centerpiece of the Harris campaign. Dick Cheney became VP thanks to, in my view, a successful attempt to steal the 2000 election. Any consultant who thought that the support of the Cheneys and other GOP former officials would lead to a significant movement of GOP voters to Harris desperately needs to find another line of work. Plus, focusing on Trump the man rather than on MAGAism the ideology undermined down ballot candidates in a year when Dems faced a difficult Senate map.

   
   

7. The climate crisis is reaching dangerous stages. In swing states like Arizona and North Carolina, its effects became particularly acute this year. I saw no sustained effort by the Dems to highlight the climate crisis in this campaign.

   
   

8. There was no pandemic in 2024, and the potential electorate is slightly larger now than in 2020. With 93% of the returns in, however, Democratic turnout clearly declined from 2020 to 2024.

   
   

   Biden had 81.3 million votes— Harris currently has 70.4 million. Trump had 74.2 million votes in '20, and he currently has 74.3 million. California remains the 1 major bloc of votes outstanding. Extrapolating current California results, Harris will likely end up in the 72-73 million vote range. Trump will likely end up in the 75-76 million range. Roughly, Trump will pick up 1-1.5 million more votes than last time. Harris will pick up about 8.3-9.3 million fewer votes than Biden did. Trump didn't win a popular vote majority this time because 1-1.5 million Biden voters flipped to him. He won it because over 7 million Biden voters stayed home this time.

   
   

9. Abortion was the one issue on which the Dems held firm this year. There were 10 abortion referenda on state ballots this year, and Harris ran behind support for those referenda in most every such state. Most important, she ran behind abortion referenda support by 14.6% and 16.6%, respectively, in the swing states of Arizona and Nevada. 

   
   

10. Seeing a woman lose to Trump a second time is personally devastating for tens of millions of American women. It’s arguably worse this time because Harris didn’t carry the years of baggage that HRC carried and because the Teflon Don’s manifest unfitness for office was  more obvious this time. Plus, HRC did win a plurality of the popular vote in 2016.

11. In 2016, Clinton, Inc. showed little interest in Bernie Sanders or his message. In 2020, Team Biden treated Bernie with respect personally and openly borrowed from his platform. In 2024, Team Harris showed little interest in Bernie Sanders or his message. Perhaps there is a lesson to be learned there.

    
    

12. In closing, my deference to the donkey has steadily declined over the past 44 years. It is at a an all-time low now. This crushing defeat was the product of a series of institutional failures over an extended period. I swallowed my reservations during this campaign because the wolf was at the door and the donkey was the only entity that could chase the wolf away. Now that the wolf is inside the door, there is no longer a reason to defer to the institution whose culpable negligence allowed the wolf to enter.

I wish all the visitors to this site the best during the difficult times that now await us.