Elderly Presidential Candidates Need To Be Extra Careful In Picking A Running Mate

But Neither Biden Nor Trump Is Doing Anything Of The Sort

Presidents should choose a running mate based on something none of them ever imagine— their own demise or incapacitation. But they don’t. In fact, there have even been some cases of exactly the opposite. Nixon picked someone even worse than himself who he felt the public would never envision becoming president. And, in fact, when Congress began to realize Nixon would have to be impeached and removed from office, the first thing they did was deal with removing Spiro Agnew from the line of succession.

A couple of decades earlier, FDR was running for an unprecedented third term and as a running mate, he chose Henry Wallace, a socialist who had been serving as the Secretary of Agriculture and was widely known for his progressive views, loved by many but hated by conservatives and corrupt party bosses. By the 1944 election, Roosevelt was in declining health and party bosses pressured him to dump the independent-minded Wallace. He picked Harry Truman instead, a more conservative senator who was acceptable to party bosses and someone Roosevelt saw as a viable successor with the right qualities needed to step into the presidency. A year later, Roosevelt died and Truman became president.

Ticket-balacing and demographic appeal have become far more important than presidential qualifications. Trump and Biden both picked sub-par running mates. Biden is stuck with Kamala Harris, who is likely to be a drag on his reelection, and Trump wound up at war with Mike Pence and is looking for a replacement. In the case of these two extremely old candidates, voters will be looking closely at running mates as potential presidents. Because Harris is so disliked by the voters, that is an area where Trump could do himself some good. His advisors are urging him to make a demographic choice— either a woman or a Black man, basically because those are two demographics Trump is weak in. According to Reuters, “High on that list of names is South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, New York congresswoman Elise Stefanik, and Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders, all women.  [Maybe he’s already decided to make Marjorie Traitor Greene Secretary of State.] Also on the list is South Carolina U.S. Senator Tim Scott, and Ben Carson, Trump's former Housing and Urban Development Secretary, both Black men.” A Latino would make a lot more sense for Trump demographically.

Trump has yet to make a final decision, the allies said, but has been making frequent calls to solicit advice.

"Every day, everywhere he goes, it's, 'What do you think of this person. What do you think of that person?'" one close ally said, describing the nature of Trump's phone calls.

… Trump declared at a Fox News town hall in Iowa on Jan. 10 that "I know who it's going to be," when asked about a running mate, but allies say his calls for advice on a choice have continued since then.

A former Trump White House official who is still in touch with the former president said Trump has expressed a preference to choose a woman as he believes that would help his prospects, with Stefanik and Noem high on his list.

A fifth ally said Trump has already compiled a short list.

…Trump is looking for loyalty and deference in a running mate, the close Trump ally said.

"Remember whose name is on the side of the plane," the ally said.

Sanders, Trump's former press secretary, is seen as fiercely loyal to him and frequently defends his record from the governor's mansion in Arkansas. Asked about being Trump's running mate by CBS News on Jan. 21, she said: "I absolutely love the job I have."

Other names popular with Trump's diehard supporters, judging by enthusiastic reactions to their appearances for Trump in New Hampshire in recent days, are Kari Lake, who narrowly lost a gubernatorial bid in Arizona in 2022 and is now running for the U.S. Senate there, and Georgia congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Both are fiercely loyal to Trump and echo his false claim that he won the 2020 election against Biden. But allies view them as too polarizing for a presidential ticket.

Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, says Trump is such a huge and polarizing figure himself, it may not matter who he picks.

"It's all about the top of the ticket, especially when the top of the ticket is so dominant a personality as Donald Trump, should he win the nomination," Ayres said.

Earlier in the week, Isaac Schorr focussed on the sheer patheticness of Tim Scott’s humiliating campaign for the slot. Scott has betrayed everything he believes in to suck up to Trump. A closeted gay man, he even announced an engagement… to a woman.

"Scott’s willingness to endure Trump’s ritual humiliation of him," wrote Schorr, "raises a number of important questions. How many Republicans left in the party are willing to tell the truth about Trump? How much further will Scott and his competition go in pursuit of the vice presidency? How much can abasement can any one person take before collapsing in on themselves like a dying star? And, of course, how funny will it be if this ends with Scott earning the same reward Chris Christie did back in 2016? Or, crueler still, a stint as Commerce Secretary?"