Populist Geert Wilders— Dutch Version Of Trumpian Xenophobe— Spins A Yarn, Rockets Up The Polls... A Mad-Man’s Gamble?
by Toon Janssen,
DWT Amsterdam Correspondent
Recently an interesting item was featured on Dutch youth news. As we all know, language is continuously developing, we should not be surprised when new words are added. Since the Netherlands today has approximately 1.2 million inhabitants with a hearing problem, sign language also must move along, and new signs were needed for interpreters. Think of gestures for concepts such as fatbike, triathlon, Brexit, climate denier or cheat diesel. Everyone in Holland is familiar with the funny hamster gesture of interpreter Irma Sluis. While COVID raged in the country, the word "hoarding" (hamsteren in Dutch) had to be depicted. And she did it with a hamster imitation. The whole country was in disarray at the time, and Irma became celebrity.
Inventing new signs also applies to names, like the surname Schoof for example, the one current Prime Minister Dick Schoof was given by birth. Schoof in Dutch language is actually past simple, linguistically, for schuiven. In English the verb "to shove" iwould be used. To express the name however, a sign interpreter appeared on youth television screens pushing aside, with both hands, an imaginary heap of stuff. To make it all clear to you, dear readers, it was as if there was a lot of junk on the table in front of her, rubbish that she decisively pushed it off the table. In other words, what she did was shove it aside.
How should the latter be interpreted in common language? Is PM Dick in this case himself the one who shoved, cleaning up this country? Or, due to his Wilders ‘ventriloquist dummy image’ known to everyone here, will he himself be pushed aside? Your DWT Amsterdam correspondent became highly intrigued by the question and worked hard to find out.
Migration was one of the top issues in the Netherlands' November 2023 elections. What few people expected to happen, is exactly did happen. Geert Wilders’ extreme right-wing populist PVV party won, by far, the most seats— 37 in the 150 seat House. His success was mainly based on stricter migration rules and less border traffic for incoming migrants. What few people also thought would happen— the successful formation of a coalition government— took place as well. PVV made the deal with 24 seat right-wing VVD liberals, 20 seat conservative progressivist NSC faction members, and 7 conservative right-wing seat BBB ‘farmers.’ To the surprise of many they got majority in the House.
However, having majority does not necessarily mean that success is guaranteed. Talks on strategy to tackle migration for example, proved to be a constant source of controversy. Wilders, lacking support for presidency even though he wanted it so badly, and known for his vicious tweeting behavior, constantly caused unrest. Being both an ordinary Member of Parliament and PVV faction leader as well, he didn’t stop bombarding his opponents. Favorite prey was then NSC party leader Pieter Omtzigt, “that Catholic creep,” who he thought to be responsible for not getting the PM position, but to whom he ultimately owed his coalition. Omtzigt was commonly known to combine his unwavering faith in the Constitution— and that to him meant no interference with the rule of law and institutions— with sound budgetary rules, being ‘punctual behind the comma,’ much to Wilders’ chagrin. The NSC leader however, suffered from poor health, and had mental problems that are reminiscent of a burnout. Some political commentators claimed he regretted joining the coalition. For Wilders on the contrary, he became an easy prey to nail down as a “weak bite.” All this taken together, raised questions about coalition stability. How for example, has collaboration within it actually work out?
The swearing-in of the new Cabinet took place on July 2, 2024. Dick Schoof was put in charge, a 67 year old man who, considering his age, could already have retired. Mister Schoof however, was very little known to the public. He mainly moved outside the spotlights and started his career within civil service as a regular official. He made it to the top however, to become Director of the Security Service as well as the Coordinator Counterterrorism, and in these functions the nickname ‘Lord Security’ was given to him by staff members. The supposed ‘perfect crisis manager’, was expected to unite the coalition partners and keep them in the cage. Did the new Dutch Head of State manage to do that while on high podium this time?
In the past he was a Socialist Party member, henceforth gradually fell from his faith, but afterwards was very proud to be non-partisan and unaffiliated, much to Wilders’ taste, who himself was not allowed a chance for presidency. PM Schoof felt strengthened by the support of no fewer than four Vice-Prime Ministers, one for each partner party, unique in Dutch political history, being stipulated by the four coalition partners who wanted an equal share. The assumption was that his impartiality would make him a good coordinator of the talks and negotiations that lay ahead. One thing for sure we can already take as a fact, Dick proved having long breath, running marathons as a hobby, did 18 of them including Big Sur Highway 1 in the US, actually the 21-miler. This year even in 4 hours, 10 minutes! He must be able to crisis manage, was the idea leading to his candidacy. So again, did he?
His appointment was not only unexpected, also the first 100 days of his reign thereafter were, to put it mildly, tumultuous. His authority was regularly under pressure, and he quickly had to get used to The Hague's tough politics. Wilders regularly fired on him, from the benches of the House, just to show who was in charge. The Cabinet almost fell, very shortly after its start. And recently, when ministerial budgets and General Political Considerations on Cabinet plans were discussed, things got out of hand again. To no one’s surprise on asylum, the real PVV position that made that party grow. The unstable coalition worsened the Premier’s authority, and people wondered why he ever took the job.
According to insiders he lacked both political capacity and vision. Having almost no training in one-liners and metaphors, combined with a limited voice volume, did put him in a disadvantage to ‘Peroxide Blonde.’ To Geert, the great debater, had been chosen Politician of the Year a couple of times. May the use of power, ‘Lord Security’ might have thought, overshadow my shortcomings? Insiders believe this assumption is far away from reality, since his would-be power was like thin air, without any party backing, as mentioned above. It must have been lonely at the top for him, even more so since Wilders didn’t really stick to anything and had free reign on Twitter.
Meanwhile little working agreements were made. During Cabinet formation major agreements were then established, but they were vague and barely elaborated. Parliamentarian Rob Jetten, former Rutte IV Cabinet Minister for Climate and Energy, said: “As every cabinet member knows, once the ink of an agreement has dried, the world around has already changed, and this goes for good intentions in texts as well.”
A lot of populist hotlist wishes could not be financially substantiated, and many plans lacked solid funding that way. To mention some: State Pension age back to 65? [It had been raised to 67 this year] “Sorry, we’re short of money,” was the answer; VAT [values added tax]on food? ”We must even that out. We want 21% on all products, no exceptions,” was once more the answer; smaller classes in education? “Sorry again, budget cuts,” dental care in basic package? “Excuse, we set different priorities,”; stop on deductible own risk in health care? “We might give it a try at some point” and of course, closing the borders? “We work on that, we’ll hit the EU table in Brussels with a shoe.” And oh yes, wasn’t there this wish for higher speeds on highways from 100 to 120km/hour? “Well, that we will get done, in fact we already did.” In the latter case however, that practically meant the speed increase to be applied to only just 100 of the 2.471km highways. “And that can certainly be called a well thought-out plan,” nature critics said cynically.
To summarize everything in short, the ones who voted for the coalition parties in 2023 elections didn’t really get their money’s worth yet.
When will the truth catch up with the lie? The more bullshit proclaimed, psychologists claim to know, the more it permeates people’s minds. On Dutch television the four Vice-Prime Ministers assured everyone how much fun things were at tea parties in The Hague. When journalists asked about alleged disagreements or ability to complete the four year Cabinet period, they answered offensively, “Why do you ask these wry sour questions?” Meanwhile, Dick Schoof decided to move meetings with his fellow Ministers from Friday to Monday however, to make time free for EU obligations in Brussels. Leaving the meetings unattended and being replaced by a Wilders vassal, was an impassable option for him. Undoubtedly PVV Vice-Premier Fleur Agema, now Minister of Health and Sports, would then appear in his position. “I want to keep track of what my Ministers decide”, Dick recently said.”
The general distrust started when former Minister of Justice, Dilan Yesilgoz (VVD, liberals), lied about follow-up traveling among asylum seekers. It laid the foundation for the fall of Rutte IV, on July 7, 2023. She then explained: “When a woman arrives at an EU border with two kids only, then thereafter her father can also come. But he might be married once more, and share kids with his new spouse; they then also might leave their country to enter ours. And thereafter the parents of his two wives might come to cross on top, etcetera. Within a short time, that way there will be a lot of migrants requesting asylum, filling up our asylum seeker centers.”
Mind you, Dilan Yesilgoz knew very well this assumption was a lie not based on facts. Investigating officials found out only 10 requests of follow-up travelers were granted in 2023. And for in total 5 previous years only 350 were rewarded. The Minister’s story was an exaggeration on top of an exaggeration, on top of another one. As already written above, her cheating ended the Cabinet in which she herself sat, and the collapse then set the tone for a new election campaign in which migration took center space. None other than Wilders had the greatest benefit from all this. His star rocketed, with 2.5 million votes, much ahead of Pieter Omtzigt who only received 1.2.
This brings us to another big lie. One charged recently by extremely devoted PVV member Marjolein Faber, the infamous Minister of Asylum and Migration, who claimed a serious asylum crisis to be plaguing the country, responsible for all problems faced and causing “real tough times for the average Dutchman. We will fix that shortly though, since we can do magic. We apply for an opt-out in Brussel,” she switched around recently.
Her stoic optimism, however, raised eyebrows with many, as was expressed in the news: “Did she make this crisis statement up in a fit of madness? We do not live in COVID time anymore. We all know she loves muscle language, since she’s constantly launching all kinds of schemes to combat her imagined asylum crisis. She doesn’t stand a chance in Brussel.”
Mind you, an actual crisis status would provide an opportunity to take far-reaching measures, such as a temporary application stop, border closings and other major restrictions. The Cabinet should then also be allowed to temporarily set aside laws and human rights, as safeguarded by EU and other international regulations, without any time limits, just like PM Viktor Orban did in Hungary. The actual asylum numbers however, do not necessarily indicate any acute need to refuse asylum seekers, statistics showed. Moreover, it is unclear what the term “crisis” exactly meant from a legal perspective. Fabers thought to get out of this by using Article 110 and 111 of the Dutch Constitution, that way being able to take emergency measures under ‘exceptional circumstances.’ “I can just do this and I will do so, I simply follow the law,” she replied in staccato language her listeners are so familiar with, “I will not stop bringing my shoes to beat around the bush in Brussels.”
Meanwhile, experts have serious doubts about the plan: “It is not much more than one-way traffic, and has nothing to do with constitutional law or norms, including those of Brussels. EU for sure will never allow any opt-outs or exceptions. To hit the table with the fist or shoe, as Faber proposed, will not have a chance there, since it concerns just form and has no content.”
For Wilders, the introduction of emergency legislation has turned into his ‘capital issue.’ Based on the crisis status he might that way be able to sideline both House and Senate. The latter in particular however, could put a stop to both his and Faber’s plans, because the coalition has no majority there, 38 of 75 are necessary, so they are always a few short. Without support of 2 two-pitters as well as 2 SGP seats, the Cabinet can not hold on the emergency stop. The SGR conservatives especially, of devoted Reformation character, adore the Constitution, as much as Pieter Omtzigt does, and are more interested in a slower so called ‘speed procedure.’ In that case all will be arranged according to the Constitution, but only faster than with ordinary laws. And also then, of utmost importance for SGR, both House and Senate will not be skipped, an option already expressed by the opposition in the House as well.
Dick Schoof was constantly put to the test concerning this issue, while Faber and Wilders kept up the pressure. All advisors, specialists and lawyers, up to the Council of State that advises on legislation and government, were against it. “But all will become clear in the near future,” Wilders announced, not intending to slow down and do it for less: “the Prime Minister has a real problem if he dares to decide otherwise to drop the crisis statement. I’m not afraid of anything or anyone. I don’t have the backbone of a banana, I have already given up so much, now it is their turn to deliver. I will not add more water to the wine.” And he ended his words with the ultimate possible threat, “In that case I’ll pull the plug!”
Insiders estimate that he might certainly do so: “What else can he do? He has no Senate majority, negative Council of State advice for sure, and a lot of trouble in the House. The outcome of this turmoil will soon become clear indeed.”
So let us now focus once more on the House, on Pieter Omtzigt in particular, the leader of NSC (New Social Contract, in English). To him, as written above, both Constitution and rule of law are sacrosanct. He wanted to wait for positive advice of the Council of State. And did Wilders not also confirm the constitutional laws, as was agreed upon during formation with signatures? Mister Omtzigt gradually found out what really mattered to both his partner and opponent: “the PVV one-man party only, without members, headed by Wilders himself.” While Geert’s popularity skyrocketed, NSC success declined in the polls, from 20 to around 3 seats only. Some called Pieter a traitor, were flabbergasted and wondered why he ever joined negotiations with Wilders, who showed a milder version of himself during the formation process indeed, but thereafter never came across as even remotely credible.
Sadly, some kind of opt-out happened to Pieter during the long, tortured process. During the seemingly endless period of coalition formation, as mentioned above, the party leader was too ill to leave his home for almost 3 weeks. When the budgets were discussed and the details leaked to the media, he started yelling and ran away from the negotiation table several times. According to those close to him, he took on too much, not daring to delegate: “He was under tension and interfered with everything, to finally get involved with a coalition that he actually did not want.” According to those involved also, there was still regular contact, with many apps back and forth, with both coalition partners and NSC faction employees, 60 in total. Replacement Nicolien van Vroonhove was not that happy then, “The father of the club is gone, I am nothing but a filter, the conduit pipe only, although, he is around behind the screen.” Those who regularly attended her press appearances were convinced she missed her buddy then, ”it was so visible.”
And then it happened again, a couple of weeks ago, and this time it seemed more serious. It looked like Pieter got over-stressed and suffered a far more serious burnout. A huge dilemma then arose for him: in case he officially reported sick, as is legally established, then this would apply for a period of 16 whole weeks. The dilemma was not solved, there should have been signs of recovery but the opposite seemed to be the case. How would he ever be able to cope with The Hague reality in the short term?
None other than Wilders smelled that and rubbed hands in glee: “For ages Pieter said he never really recovered from his first burn out, and now this. All Dutchmen can see that there is an asylum crisis and now NSC suddenly disappears again to bury its head in sand. They demolish this Cabinet, not us. Just wait and see.”
Insiders and journalists however, believe constant threatening may show unintended negative effects: “He might think he will win outright in new elections, whenever they can be written out, but then he cannot be entirely sure of the actual outcome. He might play a mad man’s gamble, by imagining not to need coalition partners, while the opposite is more likely. Until now ‘his club’ created a lot of unrest, but actually they have achieved little except fomenting a would-be crisis by tackling asylum seekers question. We want content instead of just a big mouth. If he doesn’t really come up with solutions and the government collapses, then voters may have doubts that he's capable of running this country. That way they might distance themselves from him instead.”
Let us now go back to the introduction. Remember? There were three questions asked. First, what rubbish was actually pushed aside? Second, did Dick Schoof himself push stuff aside? And third, was the Premier himself maybe the one being shoved? The answers are clear and obvious. To answer the first one, PM Dick did not get much realized, most time was spent on form instead of content, of which there was little. So there wasn’t that much to be shoved. Second, since the small amounts of rubbish wiped away took place under his responsibility, he actually was the slider. And final, considering his critical position, not being party-related, made him dependent on other people’s whims. Since Wilders threatens, his survival is at stake and then he might be the one being shoved after all.
Comments