Down Ballot Republicans Are Worried That Trump's Poor Debate Performance Could Derail Their Careers

Democrats Want A Walz-Vance Debate— Republicans Don't

On Wednesday, Karl Rove declared the debate “a train wreck” for Señor T, “far worse than anything Team Trump could have imagined. Harris pressed Trump on the economy, the Ukraine war, foreign policy, healthcare, the Jan. 6 attack and especially abortion, leaving him flustered and often incoherent. In return, he criticized her on border security, climate change and the Israel-Hamas war. Trump had to know the vice president would try to get him to lose his cool. She did. She went after him on his multiple indictments. She called him ‘weak’ and belittled him as a six-time bankrupt, spoiled inheritor of wealth. She said his former national security adviser thought him, in her words, ‘dangerous and unfit’ for the Oval Office.”

Even if you weren’t one of the 67 million Americans watching, I’m sure you can imagine his reaction. He’s not used to being talked down to like that, especially not by a woman, let alone a woman of color. And, wrote Rove, “As is frequently the case with Trump, he let his emotions get the better of him. He took the bait almost every time she put it on the hook, offering a pained smile as she did. Rather than dismissing her attacks and launching his strongest counterarguments against her, Trump got furious. As her attacks continued, his voice rose. He gripped the podium more often and more firmly. He grimaced and shook his head, at times responding with wild and fanciful rhetoric. Short, deft replies and counterpunches would have been effective. He didn’t deliver them… There was no sustained, specific indictment of her record on almost any issue. Trump offered angry responses, pursed lips and eyes darting mostly down, seldom looking at her. And what was it with his makeup that left white circles around his eyes? This was his most important opportunity to make an impression of strength and relative stability.”

It matters how debating candidates carry themselves. There, it was no contest. Harris came across as calm, confident, strong and focused on the future. Trump came across as hot, angry and fixated on the past, especially his own. She mastered the split screen, projecting confidence and wordlessly undercutting him by smiling while shaking her head as he spoke. 

Many undecided and swing voters will make up their minds less on any single issue than on their visceral reactions to the candidates. Harris did herself much good with that crowd Tuesday. Trump didn’t.

Even more voters wanted to learn something new and reassuring about the candidates in the debate. She provided them plenty, while he didn’t.

Trump enthusiasts will be upset that the ABC interviewers fact-checked the former president far more than they did Harris. Then again, he gave them plenty of material to work with— such as repeating the bizarre claim that Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio, are eating the pets of local residents. That was probably Team Trump’s lowest moment.

Will this debate have an effect? Yes, though perhaps not as much as Team Harris hopes or as much as Team Trump might fear. But there’s no putting lipstick on this pig. Trump was crushed by a woman he previously dismissed as “dumb as a rock.” Which raises the question: What does that make him?

Another Republican, Sarah Longwell, is spending 2024 running focus groups, mostly of swing voters. Yesterday, in a column for The Atlantic, she confirmed Rove’s instincts on how that debate went in the eyes of swing voters. These voters “often worry about Harris’s ability to stand up to dictators such as Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping… Last night, Trump was, in a certain sense, a stand-in for strongmen like Putin and Xi, and the voters I spoke with right after the debate said that Harris held her own. They appreciated her ability to bait Trump, counter his lies, and look calm while doing it. Her decision to point out how easily foreign despots use flattery to influence Trump also did her a lot of good.

Overall, Longwell’s voters judged Kamala “presidential,” certain one of her team’s top goals for the evening.

And one of my favorite ex-Republicans, Charlie Sykes, was happy to jump in and bloody Trump some more, who, he wrote, is blaming everyone but himself for the disastrous performance. “This morning found the former apex predator of American politics looking for some hand-holding. Donald Trump said on Fox & Friends that he is ‘not inclined’ to do any more debates, but that if he does, he wants only the friendliest possible moderators— his suggestions were the Fox News hosts Sean Hannity, Jesse Watters, or Laura Ingraham. Trump’s comment came during a morning spent complaining about last night’s ABC moderators and arguing that the network should lose its broadcasting license. He was trying to pick up the pieces from a shambolic performance,” but again he was all about him— not at all about the voters. ‘Trump lost his cool over and over,’ David Frum wrote in The Atlantic. ‘Goaded by predictable provocations, he succumbed again and again.’ Kamala Harris baited him with surgical precision, triggering his insecurities while giving him full freedom to openly wallow in his delusions.

As soon as he got offstage, Trump grasped onto his supporters’ line of defense. “I thought that was my best Debate, EVER, especially since it was THREE ON ONE!” Trump wrote on Truth Social, echoing phrasing used online during the debate. Trump must be aware on some level that last night, tens of millions of voters watched a bitter, confused, and diminished elderly man fall apart in front of their eyes. At his rallies, Trump can get away with his signature lies and tantrums of grievance— and with not saying much at all about actual policy plans. In his softball interviews with fawning right-wing hosts, he can ramble and lie without fear of being challenged. At the presidential debate, though, it didn’t work. So he has decided to blame everybody but himself.

History should note that the former president spent part of the day of the debate hanging out with a notoriously bigoted conspiracy theorist and posting memes referencing a false claim about Haitian immigrants eating pets in Ohio. Even after the story of the pet-eating immigrants was debunked, Trump and his running mate, J. D. Vance, continued to push the racist idea, which led to the debate’s most memorable moment. “In Springfield, they’re eating the dogs, the people that came in, they’re eating the cats,” Trump declared. “They’re eating the pets of the people that live there, and this is what’s happening in our country.”

Actually, it’s not happening, as the debate moderator David Muir pointed out, noting that ABC had reached out to the Springfield city manager to confirm this. Trump and his supporters were incensed that the ABC moderators, who fact-checked some of Trump’s statements in the debate live, corrected this and a few of his other egregious lies— for example, pointing out that killing newborn babies is illegal, contra Trump’s claim that in some states, doctors can “execute” babies after birth.

Attacking debate moderators and the media in general is nothing new for Trump. He makes no secret of his loathing for the press and for anyone who holds him to account. Indeed, he tried to inoculate himself against a poor debate performance by pre-attacking ABC, accusing it of liberal bias. But it wasn’t the moderators or the network, or even Harris, who forced Trump to begin ranting that “they’re eating the dogs!” That was all Trump. Ever the showman, he may understand just how awful last night’s show was for him—which is why he’s pointing the finger at everyone else.

Republicans in the House, worried that Trump appears to be dragging them down the toilet with him may be afraid to talk about his shortcomings on the record— but not off-the-record. The Hill’s Mychael Schnell went to the Capitol petting zoo and came away with their verdict: his debate performance sucked.

“I’m just sad,” one House Republican who is supportive of Trump told The Hill. “She knew exactly where to cut to get under his skin. Just overall disappointing that he isn’t being more composed like the first debate.”

“The road just got very narrow,” they added. “This is not good.”

A second House Republican, who requested anonymity to discuss the sensitive topic, said “many” in the GOP conference were “disappointed” that Trump could not stay on message throughout the debate.

“She talks to us like toddlers but is doing a good job provoking him. He [is] right on policy but can’t keep to a message,” the lawmaker said. “Many are disappointed he couldn’t stay focused or land a punch. Not sure much changes but it wasn’t a good performance.”

Republicans have all persuaded themselves— and keep repeating— that he’s “right on policy,” but he isn’t, at least not outside of the Fox/Hate Talk Radio bubble. Sure, most Republican voters like their reactionary agenda. But normal Americans don’t. And it goes way beyond their anti-Choice mania and right-wing bigotry.