Does The Issue Of The Debt Limit Align Big Spending Trump With The Dems & Against His Own Party?

How's He Going To Buy Greenland With That Pesky Debt Ceiling?

Did you imagine you’d see a situation that pitted Trump + congressional Democrats against congressional Republicans? It could happen in regard to the debt ceiling, the renewal of which the Democrats and Trump want to do away with, while the Republicans want to hold onto it as a bargaining chip and cudgel they can use when there’s a Democrat in the White House.

A little background and context first: The debt ceiling’s been a political flashpoint in DC for over a century, since it was first established in 1917, with the Second Liberty Bond Act as a way to streamline borrowing during World War I, allowing the Treasury to issue debt without requiring Congress to approve each individual bond. But, over time, it evolved into a statutory cap on total federal borrowing. For most of its history, raising the debt ceiling was a routine matter, supported by bipartisan consensus to ensure the government could meet its obligations. However, this changed dramatically in the 2010s, when Republicans began leveraging it as a political weapon. The 2011 debt ceiling crisis marked a turning point. House Republicans, led by the Tea Party movement, demanded massive spending cuts in exchange for raising the ceiling. The standoff brought the U.S. to the brink of default, resulted in a credit rating downgrade by Standard & Poor’s. Similar battles followed, reinforcing the GOP's use of the debt ceiling as a negotiating tool to extract concessions from Democratic administrations.

Fast forward to 2023, and the GOP continued using the debt ceiling as leverage under Biden, insisting on budget cuts and policy changes to avoid default. The pattern highlights the Republican strategy of exploiting fiscal brinkmanship, often at the expense of economic stability. What makes the potential alignment between Trump and congressional Democrats particularly noteworthy is the partial strategic inversion of typical party positions. Trump, despite overseeing a surge in national debt during his presidency, has often downplayed concerns about deficits, prioritizing tax cuts and spending increases. His willingness to eliminate the debt ceiling altogether aligns him with Democrats, who see it as an anachronistic obstacle that invites unnecessary crises. Republicans’ reluctance— especially the furthest right among them— to part with it reflects broader ideological battles over the size and role of government.

Does this set the stage for a remarkable political realignment, with Trump potentially defying traditional GOP orthodoxy to align with Democrats against his own party’s hardliners? It underscores how Trump’s self interest and transactional approach to governance could disrupt long-standing alliances and further fracture the GOP.

Early yesterday, Richard Rubin reported that, at least in theory, Republicans have the power to raise the debt ceiling by themselves, and they will try to do that in their reconciliation bill (or pair of bills; that changes by the day). “That, wrote Rubin, “would be the first one-party debt-limit increase since 2010… If Republicans’ efforts collapse, however, they will need to turn to Democrats to avert a potential government default around the middle of the year, possibly setting the stage for more deadline drama. While many Democrats have made clear they won’t just sign off on a GOP plan that kicks the debt ceiling to the next Congress or next president, they have signaled support for effectively getting rid of the debt-ceiling threat altogether.”

Trump’s recent call for a long-term or permanent debt-ceiling increase— which fell short among Republicans— could become the basis for an agreement with Democrats, said Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA). Boyle said he is open to working with Trump on a bill that would permanently alter the debt limit, aiming to prevent Republicans from wielding it against a future Democratic president like they did in 2011 and 2023. 

“Both in our political interest and for the good of the country, this is a great opportunity for Democrats to once and for all permanently resolve this issue so it can never again be used as a weapon,” said Boyle, the top Democrat on the Budget Committee, who has introduced legislation that would let the administration raise the debt limit unless Congress objects with veto-proof majorities. 

Trump, he said, “may actually be someone that Democrats can work with in order to achieve our long-term goals. This may be a moment when our interests align.”

…Trump, seeing the ceiling on the horizon, asked Congress to include a debt-limit increase in an end-of-year spending bill in late 2024, a month before his second inauguration. The vast majority of House Republicans voted for a two-year debt-limit suspension, even without spending cuts attached. 

“Trump wants to clear the debt limit off the table once and not have to worry about it again,” said Brian Riedl, a former Senate Republican aide who is now at the conservative Manhattan Institute. “And congressional Republicans seem to be for the most part for whatever Trump tells them he wants that day.”

But enough House Republicans objected— joined by Democrats— to prevent that bill from passing, and the ultimate spending bill lacked a debt-limit increase. Trump asked Congress again to raise or eliminate the debt ceiling before he takes office Jan. 20, but lawmakers haven’t acted. “The Democrats must be forced to take a vote on this treacherous issue NOW, during the Biden Administration, and not in June,” he posted in late December. 

Instead, House Speaker Mike Johnson said he wants to include a debt-limit increase in the “one big beautiful bill” that Republicans will try to move through Congress using the procedure known as budget reconciliation, which averts the 60-vote Senate filibuster threshold. 

Debt-limit votes can be politically difficult, because lawmakers don’t like to be seen as enabling higher debt and deficits. The cuts demanded by some Republicans along with a debt-limit increase might prove unacceptable to other Republicans. 

And what about Musk? His natural inclination would be to oppose Trump on this. He wants to cut, cut, cut, not spend, spend, spend. But would he dare— at least in public? Trump has indicated he’s getting sick of him— or at least his incessant and overbearing presence— already. Despite all that money Trump loves and wants to use as a weapon, he doesn’t want Musk messing with his plans, even when those plans mess with other Trump plans, like creating the DOGE and putting Musk in charge of it in the first place.