Does Anyone Know The Timing Of When Biden Steps Aside For Kamala?

David Frum termed Biden’s press conference’s “verbal stumbles; thoughts half-finished; strangled vocal intonations; flares of unprompted anger; glimpses of the politician’s inner monologue— resentment at how underappreciated he is— spoken aloud, as it never should be, in all its narcissism and vulnerability” as a kind of condition “[a]rt restorers use the term photodegradation to describe the process by which a painting fades. The colors remain present; they just become less vivid. That’s the Joe Biden story.”

On Friday, longtime Democratic top-level strategist Doug Sosnik noted that Biden’s path to victory “has all but vanished [and that] Trump is now the clear front-runner to be the next president of the United States.” His assessment is that Biden is win the path to lose not just the battleground states he won in 2020, but perhaps traditional Democratic states like Minnesota and New Hampshire. “Biden’s problems,” he wrote, “run much deeper than one bad debate. By spring, he had the lowest job approval average of any recent president seeking re-election since George H.W. Bush in 1992. His support has dropped by nearly a net 10 points since the 2022 midterm elections… The Biden campaign hoped to change this political dynamic by calling for a historic early debate in June. What made Biden’s poor debate performance so devastating was that it reinforced voters’ strongest negative idea about his candidacy: that he is simply too old to run for re-election… If Biden cannot demonstrate that he is still up to the job of being president, and do it soon— with a vision for where he wants to lead the country— it won’t matter what the voters think about Trump when the fall election begins.” 

Like I said, I was on a call the other day with nearly 100 top Democratic donors. The consensus was that Biden needed to drop out of the race. Many said they would channel their contributions into congressional races rather than underwrite a losing presidential campaign. Yesterday, the NY Times confirmed similar thoughts percolating throughout the Democratic donor community: “Some major Democratic donors have told the largest pro-Biden super PAC, Future Forward, that roughly $90 million in pledged donations is now on hold if President Biden remains atop the ticket.”

Ally Mutnick and Sarah Ferris wrote that “House Democrats anguished over President Joe Biden’s spiral are consumed by one question: Can anything save their chances of flipping the House? So far only three endangered Democrats have publicly called for Biden to leave the presidential race. But behind the scenes, the dozens of battleground members and candidates whose races will determine the House majority are in a ‘hair-on-fire’ level of panic, in the words of one House aide.” Some— ironically more conservative-leaning members from Biden’s own wing of the party— have told Hakeem Jeffries that Kamala, who is considered more liberal than Biden, would be a better top of the ticket candidate than Biden. CNN reported that when Jeffries met with Biden on Thursday, ‘Jeffries “directly expressed the full breadth of insight, heartfelt perspectives and conclusions about the path forward that the Caucus has shared in our recent time together,’ the New York Democrat wrote in a letter to his colleagues on Friday. But Jeffries did not offer Biden one key thing: His endorsement. A person familiar with the meeting said Jeffries ‘bluntly’ shared the views of the caucus— as he stated in his letter— but intentionally did not offer an endorsement or say publicly that the decision is Biden’s to make.”  

A few hours later the Sunrise Movement called on Biden to step aside and then another Democratic congressman, Mike Levin (CA) called on Biden to do the same. In a steady drip, he was the 19th to do so. Worse yet, a Biden zoom call with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus went off the rails and “caused more problems than it solved.” And two dozen former members of Congress released a letter calling for an open convention. By the end of the day, the first Democratic governor, Ned Lamont (CT), called on Biden to pack it in.

Dan Pfeiffer is concerned about what many Democrats are concerned about: will Kamala be a better candidate (and president, but few mention that second concern). “Before the debate,” he wrote yesterday, “there was little evidence in the polls that Kamala Harris would be a better candidate than Biden. She generally did a few points worse than the President in head-to-head matchups with Trump. That has changed since the debate. An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll released on Thursday found Biden losing to Trump by 1, but Harris leading by 2.

The Wall Street Journal, asked the same question. Tarini Parti and Emily Glazer reported that “Some Democratic lawmakers and donors have long fretted over Harris’s potential political weaknesses, citing the rocky start to her tenure as vice president and the shortcomings of her own 2020 presidential bid. Now those vulnerabilities are under an intense spotlight, even as her poll numbers have improved and she is increasingly seen as a viable alternative to the 81-year-old incumbent. Democratic lawmakers, strategists, county chairs and donors say they are hearing more support and praise for Harris than ever before. Even if Biden doesn’t bow out of the race, party leaders are pushing the campaign to elevate Harris more to counter concerns about his age and ability to effectively make the case against the 78-year-old Trump… A swing-state Democratic strategist said: ‘The question is which Harris are we going to get? She has proven she can be different things— some good, some not. If she continues what she’s doing right now… she could be a really dynamic candidate.’ The strategist added that he is resigned to Biden’s replacement with Harris.”

If Biden were to withdraw, Harris would have some built-in advantages over other Democrats who are considering a presidential bid. She has already been vetted and has high name recognition compared with alternatives. She is also uniquely positioned to inherit the Biden campaign’s war chest and make for the most seamless transition.

Dmitri Mehlhorn, a Democratic strategist and adviser to billionaires, including the [very conservative] Democratic donor Reid Hoffman, said they would back Harris if Biden were to withdraw but he thinks she would have to work on shedding her liberal image to defeat Trump. 

Mehlhorn said Harris, whom he viewed as a centrist in California, was pushed to the left in the 2020 Democratic primary on several issues, which Republicans have been able to seize on to paint her as a “radical leftist.” 

Many said she could effectively lean into her background as a former prosecutor to present the case against Trump, who was convicted on 34 felony counts in May.

Some Democrats, including some vulnerable lawmakers, worry that Harris would only highlight the chaos in the party after the debate and amplify the weaknesses of the Biden administration. Others are bracing for an increase in sexist and racist attacks against Harris by Trump and the right-wing media if she were to become the nominee. 

Republicans, who have made a concerted effort since Harris was first named as Biden’s running mate to target her in a way that is unusual for a vice president, have labeled Harris the “DEI vice president,” referring to diversity, equity and inclusion. They have also been raising questions about whether Harris has been honest in responding to concerns related to Biden’s age. 

“They are all co-conspirators in the sinister plot to defraud the American public about the cognitive abilities of the man in the Oval Office,” Trump said at a recent rally. 

Another politically problematic issue for Harris: immigration. 

Harris has already been a focus of GOP criticism of Biden’s immigration policy, a top concern for voters. Facing record levels of illegal border crossings, the president tasked Harris in 2021 with addressing the root causes of migration. The vice president wasn’t asked to lead border policy, but Republicans have cast her as the “border czar” for the administration.