I Hate To Be A Buzzkill But...
In 2008 Obama put tens of millions of dollars— something around $50 million— into registering voters in swing states. His campaign registered approximately 700,000 Democrats in Florida. His margin of victory in Florida was 236,450 votes. This cycle there was no effort to register voters— or even reregistering voters— in Florida, basically dooming the party’s candidates outside of blue ghettos (Broward, Leon, Orange, Alachua, Palm Beach, Miami-Dade, Hillsborough, Osceola). None of this is reflected in the polls.
If the polling showing Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell was accurate— it isn’t— the DSCC would be spending millions of dollars in Florida. They’re not. They’re not spending anything in Florida. They know how to poll and they’re not seeing incompetent neck-and-neck polls between Rick Scott and a subpar Democrat— who was defeated in her own and blue-leaning House district. These are the TV ad reservations:
The people who did the Emerson College poll yesterday, showing a one-point gap between the two candidates, should get failing grades after November when Scott wins by double digits.
I’m going to guess they’re using an old voter list. 20% of all the registered Democrats in the state have been pushed off the rolls in the last two years. So there’s that. Second, I’m certain, they’re not factoring in the fact that the Democrats’ mail ballot program has been wiped out in the past two years, which means that turnout will be even worse than it was two years ago, when GOP turnout was ten points higher than Democratic turnout. Remember that Election Day turnout in Democratic primaries a few weeks ago was as bad as 5 percent. Nor do I trust their judgments about who is or is not a likely voter.
Given the fact that in 2022 Val Demings lost by 19, it’s safe to say that Mucarsel-Powell is down by at least ten, probably quite a bit more. Demings outspent Rubio $79,940,920 to $49,996,190. This year, Scott has already spent $27,463,113 (almost half self-funded) to Mucarsel-Powell’s $9,883,728. His campaign just calls her a socialist 40 times a day. But he makes the point that he has campaigned in every county in the state, and she hasn’t, which is a decent non-ideological way to win votes in Florida, the state of “Walkin’ Lawton” Chiles. Her incredibly lame campaign is just “I was born in Ecuador, I speak Spanish, I’m a woman and I’m super-proud of myself (for no discernible reason).” That’s it; that’s the entire campaign.
So, basically, the polling is delusional. Here are the last two months of polling in the Demings race:
Every single poll was wrong, outside the so-called “margin of error.” And things have gotten much, much worse for Florida Democrats since then. Independents would have to vote like Democrats for Mucarsel-Powell to win... and she isn't giving them a reason to. Neither is Kamala, who is, literally, only running ads in walking distance of Mar-a-Lago. Florida independents would have to suddenly decide Trump is Satan next month. He is... but who's going to tell them?
But the polling is at least getting local legislative candidates to recommit to running hard and strong. In the Panhandle, state House candidate Haley Morrissette told us that in her district “these kinds of results put power into the hands of the Independents. Having a 47% lean towards me, would walk me right to my new office in Tallahassee and prove that voters resonate with the common sense message I serve.” I like that! Her district overlaps with the open state Senate district where Democrat Lisa Newell is facing off with Matt Gaetz’s father, Don. “Independents are a key factor in the race for Florida Senate District 1. We know there are many voters who don't support the extremist branch of the Republican party and want to see a change in leadership.”
Down in Miami, Jackie Kellogg is taking on a Republican in a blue district. She has every reason to be optimistic, if just cautiously so. “The U.S. Senate polling,” she said, “shows that Floridians are beginning to see that Florida's GOP 27 year control has not delivered for everyday Floridians; progressive candidates offer an honest voice and vision for the state’s future.”
Thomas Witkop is running for a seat Brain Mast appears to be using as a stepping stone into a job in a possible Trump II Regime. Witkop make a good case about why voters in Palm Beach, Martin and St Lucie counties should vote for him instead of the recently MAGA-fied Mast. Jacob Ogles observed that DeSantis plan to sell off Florida’s parks to golf courses and pickleball courts may have given Witkop “a moment.” Witkop, who organized hundreds of people for rallies to oppose the plan, noted Mast’s all-talk-no-action record on the environment: “JD State Park is a perfect example of when the Florida Legislature tried to bulldoze the voice of the people and try and jam through something disguised as for the people.”
Mast’s bullshit “I’m pro-environment too” defense “seemed hollow considering Mast’s poor environmental voting record and ties to golfer Jack Nicklaus, a Palm Beach County resident who has been tied to the Dickinson proposal. The golf legend designed the American Dunes Golf Club, which is tied to the Dickinson proposal through the nonprofit Fold of Honor… [M]embers of Nicklaus’ family have donated to Mast’s prior campaigns. Son Jack Nicklaus II has given $3,700 while his wife Allison gave another $2,700. And the elder Nicklaus’ wife has given $12,700 over the course of multiple campaigns, including $2,000 this cycle. ‘Brian Mast is all talk and says what people want to hear,’ [Witkop] said. ‘He claimed to stand up to it and say no to a golf course on JD State Park but behind the scenes he takes almost $20,000 from Jack Nicklaus’ family.’”
But he’s most concerned with Mast’s voting record and how it has changed since the incumbent arrived in Congress. In 2023, The League of Conservative Voters gave Mast a legislative score of 3%, much lower than a lifetime score of 21%. In 2018, Mast scored a 29%.
Witkop believes Mast’s politics have become increasingly extreme the longer he served in Washington, and an attempt to curry favor with Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, a Palm Beach County resident, has turned the Republican fully right-wing (perhaps in hopes of becoming Veterans Affairs Secretary).
“He has effectively used the bully pulpit before to hold people accountable, but since 2016 he has moved away from those principles because he wants a job in the Trump White House,” Witkop said.
You can contribute to any of our progressive Florida candidates here. These are extraordinary men and women who, unlike Mucarsel-Powell, are running strong issues-based campaigns and absolutely can move the needle.
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