Despite An Unimaginably Putrid Roster Of Candidates, The Dems Look Like They'll Win Back The House

I’m not buying the argument that the race for control of the House is as close as all the prognosticators claim it is There may not be a blue wave, but the Democratic sweep will be significantly more than the predicted 3-5 seats. 

Let’s start with a financial report from Max Cohen that ran in yesterday’s PunchBowl. He wrote that in 22 of the 25 toss up races “Democrats outspent Republicans on the airwaves in the month of October— including not just the DCCC, NRCC and Hakeem Jeffries’ House Majority PAC and MAGA Mike’s Congressional Leadership Fund but also all the dirty money being spent, mostly in favor of Republicans, by Elon Musk, the pro-genocide coalition led by AIPAC and the crypto-criminals. 

Cohen called the disparity in on air spending “stark. Across the 25 tightest House races, Democrats have cumulatively spent $35 million more on ads in the past month than Republicans have. For those counting at home, Democratic groups have spent more than $173 million while GOP groups have spent nearly $138 million… During a stretch when voters are the most focused on what’s happening in the election, it’s an undoubted boost for Democrats seeking to flip the House.”

The Democratic advantage: The top five widest spending margins in the races from the past month favor Democrats.

In Washington’s 3rd District, groups backing Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez spent $4.1 million more on ads than pro-Joe Kent groups. Organizations backing Democrat Eugene Vindman outspent supporters of Republican Derrick Anderson by $3.8 million in Virginia’s 7th District.

There was a $3.3 million Democratic spending advantage in both New York’s 4th and 19th Districts, where vulnerable GOP Reps. Anthony D’Esposito and Marc Molinaro are running against Democrats Laura Gillen and Josh Riley. And in Arizona’s 1st District, Democrat Amish Shah had the advantage of $2.7 million over groups supporting Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ).

In 15 of the 25 toss-up races, Democrats enjoy a spending lead of $1 million or more.

The only toss-up races where the GOP has the spending advantage are California’s 22nd District, Iowa’s 3rd District and Nebraska’s 2nd District. GOP Reps. David Valadao (CA), Zach Nunn (IA) and Don Bacon (NE) respectively are the incumbents here.

The race with the tightest margin is the matchup between Rep. Michelle Steel (R-CA) and Derek Tran in California’s 45th District, where pro-Tran forces have spent around $50,000 more in the past month. Another close margin is Nunn’s lead over pro-Lanon Baccam forces, which was roughly $100,000 in October.

The Tran-Steel matchup was also the most expensive race based on ad spending in October, combining for $23 million in total investment. The second most expensive race was the $20.3 million spent in California’s 27th District, where pro-George Whitesides groups spent $11.3 million and organizations supporting Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA) poured in $9 million.

Michigan’s 7th District came in at the third priciest with $19 million spent last month, with Republican Tom Barrett getting $9.2 million in support and Democrat Curtis Hertel receiving $9.8 million.

A disclaimer: Money isn’t everything in politics. Just because House Democrats have the advantage on the air doesn’t mean they’re a shoo-in to win a majority. While Democrats are seen as the slim favorites in November, few election observers expect either party to secure a majority of more than five House seats. This is a very closely contested election and could go either way.

Plus, this data doesn’t encompass the final week of ad spending, where things could ratchet up even more.

But the ad spending advantage is the culmination of the impressive job done by the DCCC, House Majority PAC and individual Democratic campaigns this cycle. Democrats have crushed their House GOP counterparts in the money game this cycle and are now reaping the rewards.

What voters are seeing: We’ve chronicled how Republicans and Democrats are messaging on the air this cycle. In the race’s final weeks, GOP ad-makers are turning to slamming Democrats on transgender issues. Democrats, for their part, are taking a page from their 2022 playbook by flooding the zone with abortion rights attacks on Republicans.

Crypto cash: Outside of the typical groups spending in the House battleground, the pro-crypto Fairshake PAC is a major player. The PAC spent $5.5 million on ads last month backing GOP Reps. Juan Ciscomani (AZ), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR), Valadao, Steel and Nunn. The group also supported one Democrat: Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola.

Let’s look a little closer at Fairshake. They transferred $24,400,000 to the pro-Democratic group Protect Progress and 39,900,000 to the pro-Republican Defend American Jobs, much of which has gone to help Bernie Moreno in his campaign against Sherrod Brown, the crypto-criminals top target. Fairshake itself has spent over $40 million on ads supporting pro-crypto candidates— mostly conservatives— of both parties, after spending millions defeating progressives Katie Porter, Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman. Democrats they support are primarily corrupt and for sale, like Ritchie Torres (NY), Don Davis (NC), Greg Meeks (NY) and Josh Gottheimer (NJ). Similarly, they look for Republicans with “for sale” signs on their backs as well, like Tom Emmer (MN), KimYoung (CA) and Zach Nunn (IA).

Much of the Democratic on-air spending advantage is wasted on expensive consultants and on ads that are potentially being seen by more people who live outside the district than inside the district. For example, although I watch almost no TV, I see ads every single evening from AIPAC’s pro-genocide operation, United Democracy Project (UDP) boosting Rep. Jimmy Gomez, even though I don’t live in his district (and even though the ads don’t mention Israel, the only issue UDP cares about). Buying ads in big metros to reach just one congressional district is an incredible waste of donors’ money. To advertise on New York, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Phoenix broadcast TV you could be paying to 10 sets of eyeballs for every one set a candidate wants to target.

As you can see on Cook’s last chart of the world on possible seats (up top), there are 69 in all, with 3 Republican incumbents in deep trouble, Anthony D’Esposito (Nassau County), Brandon Williams (Syracuse) and Don Bacon (Omaha). There are no Democrats in similar hot water, although the seat Elissa Slotkin is giving up for her Senate run (MI-07) is leaning red. Of the 10 Democratic-help toss-up seats, I’d say one is in real trouble— the at-large Alaska seat held by Blue Dog co-chair Mary Peltola. The other 9 look safe. Of the 12 Republican-held toss up seats… well, that’s where the real action is. I can see the Democrats sweeping all 12 + NJ-07 (Kean v Altman) and maybe even MI-10 (James v Marlinga). Both sides suffer from incredibly flawed candidates in winnable districts.