DeSantis Shrinking Before Our Eyes-- Ramaswamy Rising

Who Will Get The Nomination If Trump Dies?

DeSantis is trying to reboot his failed campaign. But it isn’t the campaign that failed so much as the candidate. The early media narrative the anti-Trump press was eager to disseminate was that DeSantis was a smarter, less divisive version of Trump and Trump without the drama. None of that was vaguely true. For all his Ivy League education, DeSantis comes across as a henpecked moron without a whit of sense, an ideologue eager to disable popular programs like Social Security and Medicare, while repackaging racism, misogyny and homophobia as an “anti-woke crusade.” No one likes him and he’s dead in the water, lucky when a poll shows him at 20%. The last 3 American Greatness polls of New Hampshire Republican primary voters show him at 18% (May), 12% (June) and 15% (July). The New Hampshire polling average from right-leaning Real Clear Politics shows him under 20% as well.

• Trump- 41.0%

• DeSantis- 19.0%

• Christie- 6.3%

• Tim Scott- 6.0%

• Nikki Haley- 5.0%

• Ramaswarmy- 3.7%

• Doug Burgum- 3.7%

• Pence- 1.3%

• Așa Hutchinson- 1.0%

• Will Hurd- 0%

During a CNN interview with Erin Burnett on Friday, Chris Christie attacked Trump as a grifter for using campaign cash to pay his legal bills. “You really need to have people who are donating $10, $20, $50 to your campaign, pay for your high priced lawyers for indictments that you’ve all put on yourself by paying off a porn star, by holding back classified documents, despite the fact that they’ve been asked for voluntarily for 18 months? I mean, this is ridiculous. And he is using these people in a way that I don’t think that they completely know about… People are giving to him and because they think it’s going to help him get reelected president when all he’s doing is grifting off these people. He is a con artist, who is conning them out of their money, pretending he wants to be their president. Well, what he wants is a free ride for the legal defense he’s getting for the criminal charges he personally faces.”

An Associated Press report by Steve Peoples that “weary Republicans” are trying to stop Trump in New Hampshire. The problem, of course, is that you can’t stop somebody with nobody— and that’s what the GOP primary amounts to— a bunch of nobodies trying to catch Trump and getting nowhere close. Peoples admits “they’re relying on little more than hope and prayers.” That’s shorthand for Trump keeling over and dying with a Big Mac in his mouth— or going to prison before the election. He pointed to Pence “who repeatedly appealed to voters’ faith this week as he tried to resurrect his anemic presidential campaign while courting a few dozen voters in a former state lawmaker’s backyard. ‘I truly do believe that different times call for different leadership,’ Pence told his modest crowd. ‘I know you all are going to do your job, because I have faith. I have faith in the American people.’”

The American people have no faith in Mike Pence. He’s hated on both sides of the partisan divide— for enabling Trump for 4 years by normal people, and for betraying Trump on Jan 6 by MAGAts. Not only are Trump and Meatball way ahead of him the New Hampshire polling, but so are Chris Christie, Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswarmy and even Doug Burgum!

More than a dozen high-profile Republicans are looking to New Hampshire, the state long known for shining on political underdogs, to help stop Trump’s march toward a third consecutive Republican presidential nomination. But so far, none has cracked the veneer of inevitability that has followed Trump through the early states on the presidential primary calendar despite— or perhaps because of— his mounting legal challenges.

A significant portion of the Republican electorate remains open to a new presidential nominee with less baggage than Trump. But months after many of them entered the race, there is little sign that the former president’s rivals are breaking through.

The strongest Trump alternative on paper, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, has already begun to lay off staff amid unexpected financial challenges and stagnant poll numbers. Others have failed to break out of the single digits in early polls. And as Trump braces for the possibility of a third criminal indictment, his hold on the party appears to be stronger than ever.

Pence, perhaps more than anyone, has been dragged down by the powerful undertow of Trumpism that has reshaped the political landscape for much of the last decade.

Pence barely registered in a new poll released this week by the University of New Hampshire. And he admitted this week that he does not yet have enough donors to qualify for the opening presidential debate next month, an extraordinary position for a former vice president to find himself in. During multiple stops in New Hampshire this week, he appealed to voters to donate even $1 to boost his numbers.

“Obviously, he wishes he was doing better,” said New Hampshire Republican Gov. Chris Sununu. “You’re not going to find a better character and a better person than someone like Mike Pence. He’s just such a great guy. But his message, for whatever reason, isn’t quite resonating with folks.”

Pence has managed to draw the wrath of Trump loyalists and critics alike.

…“I think Mike Pence is genuinely destroyed,” said former New Hampshire GOP chair Jennifer Horn. “He cannot win. There’s no circumstance and no race that Mike Pence will ever win. It’s sad.”

New Hampshire, a state that has traditionally shied away from the type religious conservatism Pence espouses, would be an unlikely staging ground for a comeback for the evangelical Christian who launched his 2024 campaign in Iowa. Still, politicians of all stripes have managed to break through over the years in a state that has often rewarded those willing to invest time and attention.

…Pence’s message on the stump is a throwback of sorts to the GOP’s conservative platform before Trump’s big-government populism took over.

He called for a muscular foreign policy, a recommitment to social conservative values and a sharp reduction in federal spending. He did not mention his support for a federal abortion ban. Breaking from Trump, he also endorsed changes to Social Security for people under 40 to ensure the government-backed safety net program is financially stable.

He spoke with authority, but Pence’s political challenges loomed over his New Hampshire tour.

The host of Wednesday’s event, former state Senate majority leader Bob Clegg, encouraged every attendee to donate $1 to the Pence campaign to ensure he reaches the 40,000 individual donor threshold set by the Republican National Committee to qualify.

“They can give more,” Pence quipped with a smile. He later added, “We’re working around the clock to make sure we get enough donors to be up on that debate stage.”

Despite some chuckles, Pence’s allies privately acknowledge that failing to qualify for the first GOP debate would be a political death sentence.

…Sununu, the New Hampshire governor, is also betting on the weight of history to help stop Trump. He noted that primary voters typically wait until a few weeks before the primary to finalize their decision.

New Hampshire’s primary is still six months away.

In an interview, Sununu warned that Trump has no chance of winning the general election and would drag down the rest of the party with him if he’s on the November ballot.

“I’m hoping that most people come to their senses,” Sununu said. “There’s still plenty of time for this roller coaster ride to play out.”

Meanwhile, Pence is seeking the assistance of a higher power.

“This is a nation of faith,” he told the modest collection of primary voters gathered in Clegg’s backyard. “If we will steer our party to a future built on those time-honored conservative principles that have carried our party to victory and to success for the American people over the last 50 years, and if we renew our faith in Him who has guided this great nation since they first set foot on Plymouth Rock— not too far from here— I truly do believe the best days for the greatest nation on earth are yet to come.”

If Pence is seeking assistance to a higher power, Ramaswarmy has Brahma the Creator, Vishnu the preserver and Shiva the Destroyer to seek assistance from (not to mention their wives, respectively, Saraswati, Lakshmi and Durga— aka Parvati and Kali). And don’t sneer at Ramaswarmy. Unlike Pence, he has qualified for the debate stage and is polling far more strongly than Pence is. In Mark Penn’s Harvard-Harris poll, released yesterday, Ramaswarmy made the biggest move of the field, up 8 points, closing in on the Florida Meatball!

• Señor Trumpanzee- 52%

• Meatball Ron- 12%

• Ramaswarmy- 10%

• Pence- 7%

• Nikki Haley- 4%

• Tim Scott- 2%

• Chris Christie- 2%

• Doug Burgum- 1%

• Așa Hutchinson- 1%

• Ryan Binkley (don’t ask me!)- 1%

• Francis Suarez- 0%

• Larry Elder- 0%

• Will Hurd- 0%

And when asked what they who they would back if Trump doesn’t run (ie, is dead or in prison), Ramaswarmy again made the big move— up 12%!

• DeSantis- 29%

• Ramaswarmy- 19%

• Pence- 13%

• Tim Scott- 5%

• Nikki Haley- 5%

• Chris Christie- 2%

• Larry Elder- 1%

• Perry Johnson- 1%

• Doug Burgum- 1%

• Francis Suarez- 1%

• Ryan Binkley- 1%

• Așa Hutchinson- 1%

• Will Hurd- 1%

Semafor reported yesterday that Ramaswarmy has over 65,000 unique donors and has done better than 1% in 3 polls— so he’ll be on the Milwaukee Fox debate stage. He’s offered people who put on events to raise money for him, a 10% kickback of whatever they raise, which is completely illegal.

Ramaswamy also said Saturday that he plans to sign the RNC’s loyalty pledge— a requirement that each candidate vows to support the eventual Republican nominee. This has been perhaps the most difficult RNC requirement for Republican candidates: Many have dodged when pressed on whether they’d sign the pledge, and some have flatly rejected the idea.

“The RNC’s debate stage criteria are stringent but fair,” Ramaswamy said in a statement. “I am a first-time candidate who started with very low name ID, no political donors, and no pre-existing fundraising lists. If an outsider can clear the bar, politically experienced candidates should be able to as well: if you can’t hit these metrics by late August, you have absolutely no chance of defeating Joe Biden in the general election.”

Qualifying for the August debate checks off a key initial goal in Ramaswamy’s presidential run: The opportunity to square off front and center against a number of more seasoned politicians, and in his eyes, the chance to make his first real mark in the race.

A major question is whether Trump will be among them, however— the former president has so far indicated he is likely to skip the first debate and coast on his large lead in the polls. RNC chair Ronna McDaniel has tried to change his mind, calling it a “mistake” to not debate his competitors this week.

Ramaswamy’s opponents don’t seem publicly concerned about his rise in the polls… One advisor on a rival campaign compared him to “the fajitas that go by you at the restaurant. They make noise, look exciting, and come on the fun plate. But if you order it, it’s too much, too annoying to assemble, and you wish you just ordered tacos,” the advisor said.