Democrats Won In Pennsylvania, Right? But The Republicans May Still Be Able To End Choice!

Valerie Gaydos (R) and Joanna McClinton (D)-- They can't both be speaker

Democrats did well across the board in Pennsylvania this year. In the two marquee races, John Fetterman beat Dr. Oz for the open Senate seat, 2,751,012 (51.2%) to 2,487,260 (46.3%) and Josh Shapiro trounced MAGA crackpot Doug Mastriano 3,031,137 (56.5%) to 2,238,477 (41.7%). There were no changes in the congressional districts but the 3 seats the Republicans thought they could pick up PA-07 (Susan Wild), PA-08 (Matt Cartwright and PA-17 (Conor Lamb’s open seat, which went to Chris Deluzio), all stayed blue.

The 203-seat state House, however, was a major battleground. Going into the general, the table had been set after 9 Democrats and 25 Republicans retired and 4 Democrats and 6 Republicans lost their primary renomination battles.

The short version is that the Democrats won a majority in the Republican-gerrymandered chamber for the first time since 2010. The Democrats netted 12 Republican seats, giving them a 102 to 101 majority. These were the districts that flipped:

HD-7- Mark Longetti (D) retired and Republican Park Wentling win with 51.4%

HD-9- Marla Brown (R) beat incumbent Chris Sainato (D) with 52.9%

HD-10- Amen Brown (D) was unchallenged after the red seat was redistricted blue

HD-26- Paul Friel (D) beat incumbent Tim Hennessy (R) with 57.0%

HD-29- Meghan Schroeder (R) retired and Tim Brennan (D) won with 55.8%

HD-30- Lori Mizgorski (R) retired and Arvind Venkat (D) won with 54.6%

HD-33- Carrie Delrosso (R) retired and Mandy Steele (D) won with 54.0%

HD-49- Bud Cook (R) got a new district and Ismail Smith-Wade (D) won with 66.0%

HD-50- Pam Snyder (D) retired and Bud Cook won with 61.3%

HD-54- Robert Brooks (R) retired and Greg Scott (D) won with 70.9%

HD-82- John Hershey (R) lost his primary and Paul Takac (D) won with 55.8%

HD-104- Sue Helm (R) retired and Dave Madsen (D) won with 70.0%

HD-105- Andrew Lewis (R) retired and Justin Fleming (D) won with 62.9%

HD-119- Gerald Mullery (D) retired and Alex Ryncavage (R) won with 55.0%

HD-129- Jim Cox (R) retired and Johanny Cepelda-Freytiz (D) won with 57.8%

HD-134- Ryan Mackenzie (R) moved to another district and Peter Schweyer (D) won with 59.6%

HD-144- Brian Munroe (D) beat incumbent Todd Polinchock (R) with 50.3%

HD-151- Melissa Cerrato (D) beat incumbent Todd Stephens (R) with 49.6%

HD-168- Lisa Borowski (D) beat incumbent Chris Quinn (R) with 55.5%

HD-189- Rosemary Brown (R) retired and Tarah Probst (D) won with 55.1%

So that was the short version. The long version is much more complicated and fraught. Holly Otterbein wrote about it yesterday for Politico. Two Democrats retired after successfully running for higher office (Summer Lee and Austin Davis) and another one, Tony DeLuca, died. Even though all 3 seats are very blue, there is still a problem. The Republicans now have a 101-99 temporary majority and they are blocking special elections to fill the Democratic seats.

So who’s going to be in charge of the House when they reconvene in a couple weeks? No one knows— and it’s important. “Both parties,” wrote Otterbein, “see the ensuing fight as not just as a matter of political power, but democratic governance and the rule of law itself. Privately, they fear the next few weeks could plunge the state into an unprecedented level of chaos.”

If GOP lawmakers succeed, they could use their window of control to pass amendments to the constitution requiring voter ID, easing the rollback of regulations, and potentially even limiting abortion rights. Attempts to amend the state constitution were passed last session and if they pass in two consecutive sessions, they will be put on the ballot for voters to consider without the need of the signature of Democratic Gov.-elect Josh Shapiro.

After anti-abortion, Trump-allied Republicans were soundly rejected at the ballot box in this year’s midterm elections, Democrats argue that such a move would amount to a flouting of November’s vote.

“On Jan. 6, we saw [a] revolt with actual violence,” said Democratic state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta. “On Jan. 3, we’re going to see an attempt to do a different kind of rejection of the will of the American people, but it’s just as dangerous.”

Republicans in turn, argue that it’s their opponents who are staging a paperwork coup. In a statement this month, House GOP leader Bryan Cutler said his Democratic counterpart, Joanna McClinton, perpetuated an “unprecedented, illegitimate, and illegal power grab” when she took an oath as majority leader in an unpublicized ceremony and attempted to order special elections to fill the vacant seats in early February.

…McClinton was sworn into office by a county judge the same day Lee and Davis resigned. Afterward, the acting secretary of state, who was appointed by Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf, signed off on McClinton’s dates for the three special elections to be on Feb. 7.

But soon after McClinton’s move, Cutler was ceremoniously sworn in himself by another county judge as majority leader and then tried to order the Lee and Davis special elections for the latest possible date in May. As for the DeLuca seat, Cutler and McClinton have agreed to holding the election for it on Feb. 7.

Around the same time, Cutler sued the Secretary of State on the grounds that McClinton did not have the power to order the special elections, and the question of who has the right to set them is now in the Commonwealth Court’s hands.

In an interview, McClinton said she is the rightful majority leader because “102 districts elected Democrats to represent them, to represent their values, to speak on behalf of their voices, and they rejected the extremism and the election denialism of the Republican caucus in a significant way.”

Jason Gottesman, a spokesman for Cutler, said “the math speaks for itself” and that Democrats are attempting to “redefine the term ‘majority’ to somehow claim that a 99-seat minority gives them the power.”

In this chaotic environment, lawmakers are jousting over the battle for House Speaker for next year. Legislators are scheduled to be sworn into office and elect the position on Jan. 3. Having just asserted the title of Majority Leader, McClinton is running for Speaker, while Cutler has said he is not. But another Republican, Rep. Valerie Gaydos, recently circulated a letter among her colleagues announcing her bid for Speaker.

Though Republicans have the votes to elect a Speaker in January if they stick together, they have no margin for error. Democrats are keen on stopping that from happening. Asked if she is trying to pick off a handful of Republicans to back her, McClinton said “members of our leadership team are talking to members in the Republican caucus about really just building a strong and fruitful relationship over the next term.”

Making matters even more complicated is that a Republican state House member is running to fill an open seat in the state Senate, which will be decided in January. That, in turn, could reduce the number of Republicans in the House chamber to 100. Should Democrats win the DeLuca seat as expected and the court decide to hold the other two special elections in May, both the parties could each end up having 100 state House seats for a period of time.

Should Republicans ultimately win the speakership, it would likely be short-lived. Democrats are favored to win all three special elections, whenever they are held. Davis and DeLuca won their state House districts by double digits, and Republicans did not even field an opponent against Lee.

…Earlier this year, Republicans pushed through voter ID, abortion-related and other proposed changes to the constitution, meaning that if they are successful again next year, the proposals could go before the voters as early as May 2023.

The fight over control of the state House also presents a headache for Shapiro in his initial days in office.

The incoming governor, who won by nearly 15 percentage points, has a history of working across the aisle. He won the support of current and former Republican officials during his campaign, and placed some Republicans on his transition team. But the uncertainty surrounding the state House could complicate efforts at bipartisanship.

“If you want to hit the ground running in sort of the famous first 100 days, I think it creates an obstacle at least in terms of passing legislation,” said Larry Ceisler, a longtime state political observer working in public relations. “And then, obviously, if the Republicans prevail and start pumping out constitutional amendments, that potentially creates animosity and distrust.”