No Surprises In South Carolina Or Nevada
Before we get into yesterday’s primaries, there was a special election in eastern Ohio— filling Bill Johnson’s seat— that was a shock to everyone. OH-06 is a safely red district (PVI is R+16 and the partisan lean is R+31). Trump won the district 72.2% to 26.5%— a nearly 46 point margin. Republican state Sen. Michael Rulli spent $571,315 to Air Force veteran and progressive Democrat Michael Kripchak’s $7,582. The party committee’s barely noticed the race and neither spent any money. It was assumed Rulli would run away with it. He won, but under-performing in a big way.
With almost all the votes counted Rulli won 32,627 (54.7%) to 27,062 (45.3%). The counties are listed by number of voters who participated:
Mahoning (Trump 50.3%)- Kripchak won by a hair (less than a point)
Columbiana (Trump 71.5%)- Rulli- 65%
Stark (Trump 58.4%)- Rulli- 52%
Jefferson (Trump 68.3%)- Rulli- 57%
Belmont (Trump 71.1%)- Rulli- 58%
Washington (Trump 69.5%)- Rulli- 53%
Tuscarawas (Trump 69.1%)- Kripchak- 56%
Carroll (Trump 71.1%)- Rulli- 67%
Harrison (Trump 75.6%)- Rulli- 64%
Monroe (Trump 76.3%)- Rulli- 60%
Noble (Trump 80.9%)- Rulli- 64%
Kripchak, who presents as much more progressive than Biden, out-performed him in every county. Asked about why it was so close, Rulli pretended it was a swing district bringing up Democrats who represented it when it was quite different and very swingy, a long time ago and said “I am absolutely surprised it was this close. We never saw a blowout.” The and Kripchak are the candidates in November as well. Moral: please contribute to Jerrad Christian's campaign in the very similar Ohio district next door. And this, this, this:
All the rest of yesterday’s races were primaries. The congressional races people were watching in South Carolina were the first district, where Nancy Mace was fighting for her survival and won handily, 57-30%, dealing a powerful blow to Kevin McCarthy who was backing her opponent; the fourth district, where Trump-endorsed William Timmons barely survived, fighting off fascist Adam Morgan (51.6% to 48.4%, Timmons winning Spartanburg Co and Morgan winning Greenville Co.; and the open 3rd district where Trump-endorsed Mark Burns (33.2%) will be in a runoff with McMaster-endorsed Sheri Biggs (28.8%).
The only other race that has any national interest was for the GOP Senate nomination. After Trump endorsed Sam Brown over the weekend over self-funder Jeff Gunter ($2,530,000) and fringe-fascist Jim Marchant, there wasn’t much doubt what would happen. Turnout was extremely low:
Sam Brown- 59.6%
Jeff Gunter- 15.2%
Jim Marchant- 6.6%
Walter Grady- 5.5%
None of these candidates- 4.2%
Bill Conrad- 3.6%
Stephanie Phillips- 2.2%
The other half dozen candidates got were each under 1.5%
This will be one of the most fiercely-fought general election races in the country, with many millions of outside dollars being spent.
There was no news on a federal level in Maine but the worst Democrat in the state House was beaten by a progressive challenger. Waterville’s anti-Choice, anti-LGBTQ, GOP-lite Rep., Bruce White, was beaten by Cassie Julia who campaigned on choice, choice, choice. She pulverized him 64-36%. Another interesting race was for Cape Elizabeth’s open seat. Former state Senator Cynthia Dill, a conservaDem who ran against Angus King campaigned as a GOP-lite, anti-woke nut-case. She came in a very, very distant third in a 3-way race. Michelle Boyer, a normal Democrat, won with 62% of the vote.
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