DCCC And Their Crap Candidates Better Hope Kamala Has Very Strong Coattails In NY And California

Worst Candidate Quality In Two Decades— By Far!

John Avlon, Democratic candidates don't get worse than this

The first poll I looked at yesterday was from Morning Consult. It showed Kamala’s margin had continued growing and is now 6 points over Senor Trumpanzee— 51-45%, her strongest showing to date. Good. So what about Congress? Congress is more tricky to poll. The generic polling favors Democrats right now, depending on the poll, by about 3 or 4 points. But that’s a highly inaccurate way to estimate which party will actually control Congress. If there’s a blue wave election, which is a possibility, all kinds of garbage candidates will be swept into office, negating the theoretical importance of candidate quality. But, ultimately, candidate quality is not unimportant— even if we won’t see the effects until 2026 when a 2024 blue wave would likely result in a red wave, especially if Trump is dead or in prison or somehow muted.

This is an invitation I was sent recently. The 6 candidates are the 6 DCCC Red-to-Blue candidates. Only one is a “normal” Democrat— neither a Blue Dog nor New Dem like the other 5— and he’s nothing to write home about either. Two of the candidates, Adam Gray and Rudy Salas, are provably among the worst candidates the Democrats have evert run in their contemporary history.

Yesterday, Nick Fandos reminded NY Times readers that after the Democratic debacle in 2022, Pelosi blamed New York’s governor, Kathy Hochul for handing the keys to the House to the GOP. Hochul, by the way, was a shitty one-term Blue Dog congresswoman (2011-2013), defeated for reelection years before accidentally winding up as New York’s governor. Pelosi singled out Hochul as the culprit, arguing “that Democrats had lost five key races there because Hochul’s lumbering campaign misjudged discontent about crime, pulling down the whole ticket,” wrote Fandos. And far be it from me to defend Hochul, I can’t recall who Pelosi blamed for the roughly equivalent losses in California. In New York, these are the seats Democrats should have won, along with the district’s then partisan lean. Keep in mind that Biden won all these districts:

• NY-03 (George Santos) D+6

• NY-04 (Anthony D’Esposito) D+9

• NY-17 (Mike Lawler) D+17

• NY-19 (Marc Molinaro) new district, now R+1

• NY-22 (Brandon Williams) D+4

Biden won all 5 districts that the Democrats shouldn’t have lost in California as well. And keep in mind that this isn’t just Pelosi’s home state, but that Pelosi controlled both the House Majority PAC and the DCCC, far more than poor Hochul, authors of this debacle in both states.

• CA-13 (John Duarte) new district, now D+7

• CA-22 (David Valadao) D+9 (CA-21)

• CA-27 (Mike Garcia) D+5 (CA-25)

• CA-40 (Young Kim) D+6 (CA-39)

• CA-45 (Michelle Steel) R+2 (CA-48)

Each of these 10 districts has its own unique 2022 story but what they all have in common is what no one in the media or in professional politics will very under any circumstances talk about: candidate quality. Four of the 5 Democrats in New York and all 5 of the Democrats in California were seriously sub-par. Worse yet, the worst of them are running again this cycle and are likely to lose again without either a wave or immense Kamala coattails in their districts. Both New York and California have candidates as bad— in some cases worse— than were fielded two years ago:

• NY-01- John Avlon, an anti-union fanatic who few believe is even a Democrat— a wave won’t do it; only a tsunami could

• NY-04- Laura Gillen again, a mediocrity who lost by xx while Biden won by xx

• NY-17- Mondaire Jones, who has cut himself to ribbons trying to prove he isn’t really progressive

• NY-22- John Mannion, one of New York’s worst members of the legislature

• CA-13- Adam Gray again

• CA-22- Rudy Salas again

• CA-27- George Whitesides

• CA-40- Joe Kerr

• CA-45- Derek Tran

• CA-47- Dave Min

Back to Fandos’ report for a moment. He wrote that “Two years later, close allies of Hochul say she remains embarrassed and indignant over blame that she believes was unfairly cast. But her frustration is also fueling a decision this fall to put the full force of her governorship into proving that she, and her state, can set things right for Democrats. The governor has positioned the House races at the center of everything from her galloping fund-raising schedule to state policymaking, most notably halting New York’s most significant public transportation project in a generation amid opposition to it from must-win suburbs. She is also trying to transform the state’s Democratic Party from a perennial punching bag into a sophisticated turnout operation with 37 field offices and nearly 100 staff members. While the coordinated campaign is a partnership with Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and Representative Hakeem Jeffries, the House minority leader, Hochul has covered most of the $5 million price tag.”

I doubt $50 million just to Avlon’s campaign would help him win. Fandos also noted that Hochul is so disliked that “associating herself so closely with the performance of other candidates could backfire if Democrats fall short. And polls show Hochul remains deeply unpopular in key suburban swing districts that her party is trying to win back. Republicans are almost gleeful at her return to the campaign stage. ‘Birds of a feather flock together,’ said Courtney Parella, a spokeswoman for the House Republicans’ primary super PAC. ‘We hope Gov. Hochul spends a great deal of time campaigning with New York Democrats on their shared agenda that has led to higher crime and a migrant crisis.’… [N]ot a single House swing seat candidate lists Ms. Hochul’s endorsement on their website. When Mondaire Jones, the Democrat challenging Lawler, walked with the governor along the streets of Tarrytown north of New York City, his campaign neither notified reporters of the joint appearance nor posted anything about it later on social media.”

If you’d like to help progressives running for Congress, you can do it here. There’s even one in California, though the DCCC is ignoring him entirely. There aren’t any in New York.