Congressional Special Election In FL-06 Gets Real

"American Political Prisoner" by Nancy Ohanian

-by Patrick Toomey

Ever since I first read here about Josh Weil’s special election campaign in FL-06, I’ve been simultaneously skeptical and intrigued by that campaign. The donkey’s steady downward slide here in the past few decades, FL 06’s R +14 PVI, and Weil’s lack of prior political experience all raised doubts about his chances. His campaign’s fund-raising prowess, the building discontent with the ongoing GOP lunacy, and a burning desire for some sign of hope on the horizon required an open mind.

In that context, there are 4 positive signs in recent days. The first is a Twitter post Saturday on “Capitol Directions” from the Florida Politics blog. Florida Politics on Twitter: "Another week in The Capitol! 🏛️ Who had a win? 💪 Who took a loss? 👎 Get the real scoop ⬆️⬇️ in #CapitolDirections. Full list giving Weil’s GOP opponent, State Sen. Randy Fine, a down arrow for the week, noting that Fine “was losing a game of chicken with [close DeSantis ally Christina] Pushaw” and that Weil had shifted  this race “from a GOP layup to a must watch.”

A little further digging reveals that Fine has been critical of DeSantis’ excessive staffing and that he and Pushaw have become embroiled in an open trade of insults in the process— Republicans continue fighting over immigration power: 

Fine posted on Twitter “Thanks for reminding me we need to hold that Oversight Committee meeting on what you do and the rest of Team #RinoRon do all day to justify your six-figure taxpayer checks other than play on social media. Keep your calendar free February 11. Tell your colleagues too.”

Pushaw responded to Fine’s announcement, calling him a “snowflake” and saying Fine wants to “make it illegal to post jokes about him on the internet.”

While Ron DeSantis is no longer the 800 pound gorilla of Florida politics, getting into a public pissing contest with his close allies is not a positive development if your (presumed) goal is to rally the GOP base around the red banner in an R +14 CD (not all that long ago represented by DeSantis in Congress). People who regularly cover Florida politics certainly consider this spat to be significant.

Outside investments in the past week are also worth noting.  On Thursday, the DNC announced that it was investing in FL-06 (and in FL-01):

[T]he investment, which according to the DNC will allow the Florida Democratic Party to bring in “additional full-time organizing capacity to mobilize voters and volunteers on the ground” in the state’s first and sixth congressional districts. 

On Friday, a GOP-allied CryptoPac announced that it was investing in the FL-01 and FL-06 races:

Affiliates of the Fairshake super PAC, a fundraising group that helped elect pro-crypto candidates up and down the ticket, is trying to boost Republican candidates in two Florida races, which could determine whether Republicans hold their thin House of Representatives majority.

At this point, an aphorism (perhaps apocryphally)  attributed to Gandhi comes to mind: "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."

Weil’s campaign was long ignored. It was then sneered at. The CryptoPac investment shows that it’s now being fought. Whether that campaign can win remains an open question, but, at this point, it’s becoming “a must watch.”

It’s also worth noting that, as former Social Security Administrator Martin O’Malley recently commented: "Musk and Trump want to wreck Social Security’s ability to function so they can rob it. Rise up and stop the steal of your Social Security."

As with a sizeable majority of CD’s here, Social Security is a highly salient issue in FL-06. The Villages, a sprawling (GOP-leaning) retirement community, is in FL-06. I made an overnight stay when I took a deposition there about 6 years ago. My perception from that visit to The Villages is that messing with Social Security is a political third rail there that the Weil campaign should be highlighting in the closing days.

IF Team Weil could pull off this one, it would have nationwide political implications in a narrowly balanced House. Plus, the GOP losing a special election in a R +14 CD that Trump carried by a landslide margin would make GOP incumbents with much narrower partisan indices soil their undergarments.

Maybe Musk’s threat to finance primary challenges to any GOP incumbent who strays from the MAGA path would still hold sway under such circumstances, and maybe the perception that dozens of presumably safe GOP seats may not be so safe after all would require a recalibration. In its imperial days, the British military was said to operate on the precept that the enlisted men should fear their own officers more than they feared the enemy. Whether GOP members would fear Musk or their own constituents more would pose an interesting dilemma.

Maybe an upset in FL-06 might stir incumbent Dems from their current torpor.  Maybe it would bury the “let’s play possum” dead end of Carville, Schumer, et al for good. Maybe it and the steadily swelling crowds on the Bernie/AOC tour might serve as long-overdue twin wake-up calls.

At the very least, we have an apparently competitive race that offers a glimmer of hope in the looming gloom. At the very most, Daytona Beach could be the epicenter of a political earthquake. More than ever, this race is definitely worth monitoring-- and perhaps investing in.