Yesterday, Jack Gillum and Anthony DeBarros reported that last month “Biden’s campaign apparatus said it brought in more than $53 million, leaving it with more than $155 million on hand at the end of the month. Trump’s operation by comparison reported raising $39.3 million— with $74.4 million in the bank— across his campaign committee, the Republican National Committee, a supportive super PAC and a leadership PAC, which has been drained by shelling out more than $53 million in legal-related expenses since early last year.” There point was that as the general election begins in earnest, those fundraising figures underscore how much financial ground Señor Trumpanzee has to make up to catch up to Biden— “money used for pricey TV ads, campaign staff, office space, consulting fees and other expenses.”
Instead, Trump is hoovering up whatever he can from every GOP source he can to pay for his ever-increasing legal expenses, which is, in great part, why he decided to run this cycle in the first place. But, increasingly, Republican political donors are getting gun-shy about giving to any GOP committees because Trump grabs it all for his endless legal problems. For example, last month the NRCC got absolutely shellacked by the DCCC, raising just $8.1 million, compared to the Democrats' $14.5 million.
Still, I’d feel a lot better if the Biden campaign team was doing what Obama did in 2008— registering voters, especially in swing states like Florida (where Obama registered a million voters and won by 236,450 votes)— and Georgia, Ohio, Arizona, Wisconsin… Alan Grayson’s Senate campaign is all about registering and re-registering Florida voters, but the DSCC seems more interested in failed one-term ex-Congresswoman who thinks running for the Senate means sending out fundraising e-mails about her background and hoping there’s a blue wave the sweeps her into victory on Biden’s coattails. That isn’t how you win.
In a red-leaning district in Ohio represented by Troy Balderson, the Democrats have nominated a first time candidate, Jerrad Christian, a Navy vet, a software engineer, and a young father who grew up poor in the Appalachian part of the district. He needs the resources to register voters— not just for his own race and not just for Biden but for Sherrod Brown, who could be the key for Democrats keeping control of the Senate. The Ohio Democratic Party is concentrating its efforts in blue strongholds like Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati and Toledo. But they ignoring red-leaning counties like Coshocton, Perry, Guernsey, Muskingum, Licking, Delaware and Fairfield. Five newly registered voters’ ballots for Sherrod Brown or Joe Biden in Licking, Fairfield or Delaware counties is as good as 5 votes in Cleveland or Columbus. In fact, last year, when activists concentrated their efforts for the abortion protect amendment everywhere in the state, it won in Delaware (with 59%), won in Licking (with 51%), won in Fairfield (with 51%), even though Trump won each of those counties in 2020— Delaware with 52.5%, Licking with 63.1% and Fairfield with 61%. A little extra work and prioritization goes a long, long way.
And those are the exact counties Christian needs to win in to replace Balderson in the House. "Registering to vote," he told us last night, "is a powerful step in driving progressive change and ensuring that diverse voices are heard in the political process. We get a chance to empower individuals and communities to influence decisions that affect their lives. By getting more people registered to vote, we can work towards a more inclusive democracy where progressive values have a stronger impact. This collective action inspires others, building a momentum that can lead to significant societal shifts, and ensuring that policies reflect the will and needs of the people. It is through our actions - not just our words that the world changes."
Yesterday, Charlotte Alter and Philip Elliott reported that Obama had a private lunch with Biden in the White House last June, the purpose of which was to warn him that his “re-election campaign was shaky… Defeating Donald Trump would be harder in 2024. The mood of the country was sour. Persuading unhappy voters was going to be difficult. Biden needed to move more aggressively to make the race a referendum on Trump, Obama advised.” Obama was back for a visit 3 months ago, expressing concern that “the re-election campaign was behind schedule in building out its field operations, and bottlenecked by Biden’s insistence on relying upon an insular group of advisers clustered in the West Wing. Biden needed to get it together, or Trump would sweep the seven key battleground states in November, six of which Biden carried in 2020.”
And now, Biden’s approval numbers have sunk into the 30s, “worse than those of any other recent President seeking re-election. He’s trailed or tied Trump in most head-to-head matchups for months. Voters express concerns about his policies, his leadership, his age, and his competency. The coalition that carried Biden to victory in 2020 has splintered; the Democrats’ historic advantage with Black, Latino, and Asian American voters has dwindled to lows not seen since the civil rights movement. Despite an attempted insurrection, 88 felony charges, and a record that prompts former aides to warn of the dangers of reinstalling him in office, Trump has never, in three campaigns for the presidency, been in as strong a position to win the White House as he is now. If the election were held tomorrow, more than 30 pollsters, strategists, and campaign veterans from both parties tell Time, Biden would likely lose.”
As a fog of dread descends on Democrats, Biden’s inner circle is defiantly sanguine. They see a candidate with a strong economy, a sizable cash advantage, and a record of accomplishments on infrastructure, climate change, industrial policy, and consumer protections that will register for more voters as the campaign ramps up. They see a pattern of Democrats overperforming their polling in recent years, from the 2022 midterms to a spate of special elections and abortion referendums. Most of all, they see a historically unpopular opponent. And in the end, they believe, voters dissatisfied with the President will tally the stakes— from reproductive rights to the prospect of mass immigration roundups to the future of U.S. democracy— and pull the lever for Biden again. “Our biggest strength is that 80 million people sent him to the White House before,” says Quentin Fulks, Biden’s principal deputy campaign manager, who notes that Trump needs to find new voters to win. “Our challenge is winning people who have already cast a ballot for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris once.”
Yet that may be a tall order in what’s shaping up to be a contest of which candidate America dislikes less. After a slow start, Biden’s campaign is charging forward, opening field offices, hiring staff, and launching an ad blitz painting Trump as a dangerous autocrat. But even if the President’s sputtering bid finds a new gear, allies say, the country is so bitterly divided that his ability to affect the outcome in November may be limited. Both sides are digging in for a gloomy slugfest, marked by depressed turnout and apocalyptic warnings about the fate that awaits the nation should the other guy win. Publicly, Biden’s brain trust is confident in their turnaround plan. Privately, even some White House insiders admit that they’re scared.
…The biggest reason for optimism in Biden World may be the weakness of his opponent. As Election Day nears and Trump’s speeches and ideas garner the kind of attention they haven’t had since he left office, advisers expect fair-weather Biden supporters will remember how much they dislike his predecessor. “We know the work that we need to do to consolidate our base,” says the campaign’s communications director Michael Tyler. “The campaign is geared toward those efforts, while our opponent is still screaming into an echo chamber of MAGA extremism.”
The cornerstones of the case against Trump will be the dual threat he presents to democracy and reproductive rights. Since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, 21 states have stricter abortion restrictions than they had under Roe v. Wade. Democrats see an opportunity to pummel Trump on abortion access, as well as concerns about access to in vitro fertilization after the Alabama Supreme Court ruled that frozen embryos are legally children.
…But for Biden to beat the 77-year-old Trump, some allies believe it’s time to remove the bubble wrap. After campaigning successfully in 2020 on promises to restore the “soul of the nation,” Biden still clings to a self-image as a champion of comity. It is a pitch calibrated for an idealized electorate, not the one he has to win over. “People say, ‘I’m not going to vote for Trump, but I don’t know if I can vote for Biden.’ And everything they say has to do with his style: ‘He doesn’t seem to be fighting for us,’” says Representative Jim Clyburn, the former House Democratic whip, who has stepped away from his caucus leadership role to help Biden sharpen his message, urging the campaign to underscore the direct economic benefits of the Biden presidency.
Michael LaRosa, a former press secretary to First Lady Jill Biden, says the President has the capacity to author a comeback if he starts throwing punches. “He can talk about all of the accomplishments, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and economic-growth reports he wants,” LaRosa says. “Trump is talking about illegal migrants killing gorgeous young students jogging on campus, or the price of groceries, and placing the blame for both at Biden’s doorstep. Does he want to win the argument, or win the election?”
Recent flashes of fight have cheered the President’s supporters. After the boisterous State of the Union speech, he hit the road for a two-week swing through seven battleground states. The first event was at a middle-school gym in the Philadelphia suburbs, where Biden said Trump “got his wish” when the Supreme Court overturned Roe and states installed abortion restrictions. The President ticked through highlights of his record: limiting monthly insulin costs for seniors to $35; capping all Medicare prescription-drug costs at $2,000 a year; cutting credit-card late fees from $32 to $8; requiring corporations to pay a minimum of 15% in tax. When Biden called for an assault-weapons ban and stripping liability protections for gunmakers, the room erupted in cheers. After stepping off the stage, he shook hands and posed for selfies for 30 minutes, ignoring multiple announcements from his staff that it was time to leave.
When he finally did, the scene greeting him outside was a reminder of the challenge ahead. On the street in front of the school, dozens of pro-Palestinian protesters, holding signs reading Cease-Fire Now, erupted in chants of “Genocide Joe.” The protesters had camped there for hours as the sun set, waiting for their chance to get Biden’s attention. As his limousine pulled away, the crowd increased the volume of their chants, hoping the President would hear them from inside his armored car.
Dan Pfeiffer suggests ignoring the polls, <> writing<> that Biden’s SOTU “buoyed Democratic spirits, lit a fire under our activist base, and silenced calls for him to step aside for a younger Democrat… the starting gun for an aggressive Biden campaign.” But the polls haven’t ticked up since then. Pfeiffer counsels that “in presidential politics, change happens slowly and then suddenly. The horse race is the last number to move, and the President’s approval is the second-to-last number to move. All the underlying numbers come first— strength, trustworthiness, and fighting for someone like you.”
And… Trump is drowning in his own problems. Look at this frightening picture that was snapped yesterday. He looks like he’s about to tumble over. If that body man lets go of his hand, the election is probably over. Meanwhile, Trump is tap dancing around comments he made about cutting Social Security and Medicare and about “making all sides happy” with some phantom abortion plan he’ll never come up with— both traps he made for himself and stumbled right into, moth agape. I wonder how long it will take the incredibly undisciplined and self-destructive idiot to use the word “bloodbath” again. Probably not too long; he just can't help himself.
Do you think it will help him with Latinos that he referred to migrants as “animals… not people?” About 75% of Jews vote Democratic. Trump wins among the ultra-Orthodox and Hasidics but normal Jews voted for Biden and vote for Democrats. Do you think his statement about how they hate their religion and hate Israel is going to win them over to Trump’s and the GOP’s side?
Biden is the first incumbent president in my lifetime to be largely incidental to his own re-election campaign. He was elected in 2020 much more on who he was not than on who he was. The party seeks to re-elect him now more on who he is not rather than who he is.
Nixon relied heavily on the caricature of McGovern's as a dangerous radical to win a landslide re-election in '72, but he also ran as the purported foreign policy master who went to China (a huge deal at the time), went to Moscow, and who had Kissinger announce "peace is at hand" in Vietnam on the eve of the election. Biden's campaign is trying to keep him awa…