Big Election In Allegheny Co. Today Will Determine Which Party Controls Pennsylvania's State House

Likely winner Lindsay Powell

First the good news, the very good news— the crucial election in western Pennsylvania today is in solid blue territory. The winner of today’s special election— establishment Democrat Lindsay Powell (who has worked for Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries and former Pittsburgh mayor Bill Peduto) or Republican real estate agent Erin Autenreith— will determine which party controls the state House. Let’s step back to figure out how that could happen. Powell has been endorsed by both the local progressive members of Congress, Summer Lee and Chris Deluzio

Dominic Costa, a former Pittsburgh police chief and conservative, xenophobic, anti-Choice Democrat, was elected to the state House in 2008. He was MUCH too conservative for a district that supported Bernie over Hillary in 2016. In 2018 he was challenged by Democratic Socialist Sara Innamorato. She absolutely kicked his ass— 64.1% to 35.9%— in a district that includes parts of Pittsburgh plus Etna, Millville and Shaler and Reserve townships. After losing, Costa tried running as a Republican write-in candidate but couldn’t get enough petition signatures to qualify.

Likely loser

This past July she resigned from the House to run for Allegheny County Executive. That caused a 101-101 party split in the state House. And that’s why whomever wins today will determine which party controls the House, urgent because the GOP controls the state Senate and the governor’s office is held by Democrat Josh Shapiro. Last week, AP reported that this will be the third time in less than eight months that a special election decides control of the otherwise evenly split state House “and provide political reinforcements to either the commonwealth’s Democratic governor or its Republican-controlled Senate.

The district gave Biden 60% of its votes against Trump in 2020 and Fetterman did even better in 2022. Powell raised $52,723.78 as of last Monday. That’s 8 times more than Autenreith’s $6,031.57. And since then, the state’s teacher’s union contributed another $10,000 to Powell’s campaign.

In the 2022 midterm election, Democrats won a majority in the Pennsylvania House for the first time since 2010, but Republicans occupied more seats by the time the term began in January because of three vacancies that were created after the election. Two Democratic members resigned to assume other offices–- lieutenant governor and U.S. representative (Summer Lee)— while a third died before Election Day and was reelected posthumously.

Democrats regained their numerical majority in February after winning special elections to fill the three vacancies. Two additional vacancies, one by a Republican who was elected to the state Senate and another by a Democrat who resigned amid sexual harassment allegations, forced another round of special elections in May that would once again determine control of the House. Those elections resulted in the 102-101 Democratic edge that stood until Innamorato’s resignation in July.

Yet another special election that could determine control of the Pennsylvania House may be in the works early next year if Democratic state Rep. John Galloway is elected to a district judgeship in November, as expected.

…Under its current boundaries, District 21 heavily favors Democrats. Innamorato won the 2022 general election with 63% of the vote. She performed best in the southern half of the district, which includes parts of Pittsburgh, where she dominated most of the city’s 6th, 9th, and 10th wards with between 80% and 89% of the vote.

The Republican that year, Frank Perman, carried only 16 of the district’s 79 wards, all of them in Shaler Township. This year, Autenreith would have to outperform the 50%-59% Perman scored in the eastern and western parts of Shaler, as well as cut into the Democratic lead in the rest of the township, which is conceivable considering she is the local Republican committee chairwoman. But to win, she would also have to force Powell to underperform in Pittsburgh and neighboring wards, which is a tall order considering the area’s voting history.

…As of Monday, there were 47,682 voters registered in Pennsylvania’s House District 21, according to the Pennsylvania Department of State’s website. Of those, 59% are Democrats, 26% are Republicans and 11% are not affiliated with any party.

…In the 2022 general election, 27% of ballots were cast before Election Day. The Democratic incumbent won 84% of those advance votes. As of Thursday morning, 3,600 ballots had been cast, with 82% by registered Democrats and 12% by registered Republicans.

Tonight polls close at 8pm.