Tomorrow is primary day in Arizona and we’ve been focussed on the very swingy first district (Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, northeast Phoenix, Cave Creek, Fountain Hills), which Biden won, narrowly, and where the PVI is R+2, leaving extreme MAGA incumbent David Schweikert very vulnerable. With half a dozen Democrats competing to take on Schweikert, Schweikert’s best chance to keep his seat would be if one of the Republicans-claiming-to-be-a-Democrat (Marlene Woods or Amish Shah) wins the primary. If Conor O’Callaghan wins the primary, Schweikert might as well start looking for a new job.
But there’s another interesting primary tomorrow in another part of Maricopa County— a very red part of the northwest county-- to fill the 8th district seat Debbie Lesko is giving up. This one is, with an R+10 PVI, an all Republican affair with 7 candidates, some with very big names and considerable wallets:
Ben Toma is the state House speaker ($807,102)
Anthony Kern is the area’s state senator ($195,904)
Trent Franks is an ex-Congressman ($442,820– 90% self-funded)
Blake Masters ran for Senate last cycle ($4,982,946– 88% self-funded)
Abe Hamadeh ran for AG last cycle ($1,275,774– 27% self-funded)
There’s also around $3 million in independent expenditures running— most of it to support Toma but significant amounts for and against Masters and Hamadeh. Then, over the weekend, something happened to shake up the race entirely. Right-wing billionaire Peter Thiel— Masters ex-lover— started cozying up to Trump again (delighted with the Vance selection, which he has promised to pay for), and persuaded Trump to endorse his former boyfriend. Trump had already endorsed Hamadeh but on Saturday he made it a dual endorsement, pretty much shattering Hamadeh’s front-runner status with a typical Trump one-size-fits-all social media endorsement but for the two of them:
“Publicly released polling,” wrote Laura Gersony, “has been variable and often has shown several of the candidates tightly clustered… Masters, in an interview Saturday evening, said he was grateful for Trump’s support. He said that while he didn't have ‘clear visibility’ into the circumstances of the endorsement, he suspected some elected officials, members of the Trump campaign, and ‘friends’ helped make the case that the former president should back him. ‘I think the president saw polling, I think he saw me run a very pro-Trump campaign,’ Masters said. ‘I think everybody saw a close race with the momentum on my side.’’
Hamadeh spokesperson Erica Knight responded to Trump's move Sunday.
“Abe Hamadeh is confident that he will win this race because he was not only one of the first races in the country to have the support of President Trump, but also has the unwavering support of grassroots patriots and the powerful backing of (Senate candidate) Kari Lake," Knight said in a written statement. "While Blake 'the Snake' Masters has run a despicable campaign attacking an Army veteran, Abe has been focused on the issues that are affecting everyday Arizonans. Abe and Kari are the true America First team, committed to fighting for election integrity and conservative values. Together, they will ensure victory on Election Day."
Both candidates received Trump’s backing during the 2022 election cycle, when Hamadeh ran for Arizona attorney general and Masters for Arizona’s U.S. Senate seat. Since then, the two have become fierce rivals in the six-way primary race …
The members of Trump’s inner circle have been divided over the race. Several allies of the former president, including loyalists Richard Grenell, Kash Patel, and U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake, have endorsed Hamadeh. Masters received early backing from U.S. Sen. JD Vance…
The Trump campaign’s public posture toward Masters had been neutral leading up to the endorsement. Earlier this month, a top Trump adviser privately had asked Masters to take down or revise a TV ad suggesting that Trump had endorsed his candidacy. Still the campaign stayed mum as Masters continued airing those and similar ads.
Asked why voters should choose him over Hamadeh, Masters said he was a stronger candidate on the issue of illegal immigration. He reiterated a campaign attack that Hamadeh, whose father once faced removal from the U.S. for not being in the country legally, is "compromised" on the issue.
Masters has leaned heavily on attacks on Hamadeh's religious and cultural identity to discredit his campaign rival and has taken an aggressive tack on matters of race and immigration, including flirting with an immigration conspiracy theory first popular among white nationalists.
Hamadeh has in turn branded Masters a “snake” for his campaign barbs and argued some of the attacks denigrate his military service. He has emphasized that, unlike Masters, he mounted persistent though unsuccessful legal challenges to his narrow 2022 loss— a display of his commitment to Trump-led discredited claims of stolen elections.
It’s unclear how much the endorsement will affect the outcome of the race: Early voting, popular in Arizona, began July 3.
Whomever wins wins this primary will be going to Congress with a job for as long as he wants it. A plurality of voters live in retirement communities and aren't susceptible to change (except for their diapers). Masters has the money to get the message out that this graphic is no longer accurate, but a lot of people have already voted.
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