Biden MUST Prevent The GOP From Shoving The Economy Off The Fiscal Cliff-- No Matter What It Takes

McCarthy gets his marching orders from the Freedom Caucus

-by Daniel Drasin

The White House and the House Republicans are spending a lot of energy blaming each other for a possible fiscal cliff catastrophe. The latest from Biden was that “It’s time for Republicans to accept that there is no bipartisan deal to be made solely, solely, on their partisan terms. Now it’s time for the other side to move from their extreme position.” Instead, the Republicans, sensing Biden’s weak, pusillanimous position— since he’s all but given up on slapping them with the 14th Amendment— has allowed the Freedom Caucus to amp up their demands, including more rigid work requirements and new anti-immigrant provisions. And even if Biden manages to surrender enough to allow McCarthy to get something passed with the help of conservative Democrats, what's to stop some Senate grandstanding psychopath like Tuberville, Cruz or Hawley from adding another crazy GOP demand or two to the shit soup Biden will be asking Democrats to swallow? I asked an old Maryland friend Dan Drasin, a full time techie, part time political junkie who’s usually crunching the numbers behind policy and politics, to weigh in on this with a unique perspective on why Biden should use the 14th Amendment rather than commit political hari kari.

The 14th Amendment Gets The Politics Back On Track

-by Dan Drasin

In following the current situation with the looming debt default and related “negotiations,” there has been a lot of hand-wringing about the irrationality and recklessness of the Republican side and the overall situation in general. And this has colored the key question of “what to do” because every reasonable approach can be stymied when starting with the lens of "how do we negotiate to stop the default disaster." But what if we start with a political lens? So I did. And I noticed something in the politics of the 14th amendment debate which I think has been overlooked— a point that argues that it will be (and is) the only reasonable political choice for Biden.

First consider that the Republicans have successfully set up a narrative where they are the party trying to limit spending. The fact that they've historically given barrels of it away to their benefactors in tax-breaks is in the past, what they are doing now is more prominent.

The fact that they have instigated this “debate” by taking the credit-worthiness of the US as a hostage isn’t the story that breaks through. This means that when there’s an impasse, talks break down, or we go over the edge and default, the narrative will be that they were the side trying to limit spending. Even those that blame both sides, will give the Republicans less blame because they were pursuing the “noble” goal of reducing spending.

Lost in all this will be the question of “what kind of spending” or “we already spent it, we are arguing about whether to pay the bill”— we can all observe that this doesn't break through the current framing.

So this puts Republicans in a no-lose position (except for the shared disaster of a default-- which their party has become well-practiced of down-playing warnings of impending disasters across a variety of topics); they press for maximum amount of their policy goals (while characterizing them as spending cuts) and they either A. Get Democrats to fold or B. Get a default which can fit into their narrative as “the Democrats insisting on spending to much money.” Either way, the Republicans get political credit for being responsible and trying to limit spending. Which they will rely on heavily in the next election and they believe will be a big winner across the board. And the republicans are well aware of this.

This perceived no-lose situation, combined with the lack of any “more responsible” actor on the Republican side who has the authority to stop it, is driving us head-long to the default cliff— with the only possible off-ramp being complete, complete capitulation by Democrats.

Enter the 14th amendment. Besides the practical value of allowing the US to avoid default— which is super-important for most Americans, avoiding default is less politically important to Republicans as they believe the politics favors them in this scenario. However, the use of the 14th amendment also creates a new political narrative for Biden. This change in narrative is the key.

The very use of the 14th Amendment clarifies that the debate isn’t about reducing spending— it’s about paying bills we’ve already spend. That’s what the 14th amendment says.

And all the coverage will shift from the goals of the hostage takers (reducing spending) to the actions they took (putting US credit worthiness at risk.) Biden can say: "I'm taking this action to defend the constitution, to defend our country's credit-worthiness because we have to pay for what we've already spent. I sure wish congress had done this for me. And I don't understand why anyone would object to my paying for what we've already spent." This is not the narrative Republicans want to carry— especially as negative consequences start popping up. And it seems much less likely that their coalition will stick together.

And even if the Supreme Court rules against the action, they could not dispute the facts and narrative. The narrative will be that Biden is trying to pay the bills, but the MAGA Republicans and Supreme Court won’t let him— which is what is causing all sorts of bad things.

There’s no political downside for using the the 14th Amendment. The only downside would be if you believe that using it will somehow make a default more likely (which I think you can only get to if you believe in a large reservoir or good-faith Republicans who will save the day given the current political context) or that there’s some grand-bargain that will be supported by enough Democrats and Republicans to pass that would be wrecked with a 14th Amendment off-ramp. Both seem like magical thinking at this point.

With this lens on using the 14th Amendment in mind, what to do:

• Of course continue to negotiate in good faith. After all, why not at this point. The damage is done in terms of setting precedent.

• But don’t negotiate with desperation or any expectation of success— the goal posts will be constantly moved. And the negotiators actually have no power to get a deal passed in the house. And a significant number of them believe that default is better than continuing with the current budget.

• Start discussing the 14th amendment as how we will pay our bills. That this Amendment exists to ensure that we don’t damage our nation’s credit.

• The narrative should be : the 14th amendment is fundamental law for our federal government. And of course we want congress to act in a way that consistent with the 14th amendment. But if they don’t, then the president is obligated to follow it.

• The narrative should NOT be that the debt limit is inherently unconstitutional. (Although logic leads that way…). It’s simply: it is not unusual for their to be conflicting direction between different laws, rules, regulations and those have to be resolved by various actors in our government— sometimes on case to case basis. And of course, constitutionally outlined rules take higher precedence. So we’ve gotta pay our bills. Why hasn’t this come up before? Well congress has never dropped the ball on following the 14th amendment. So it’s with great disappointment and reluctance that the president has to step in…

Hopefully this path is becoming apparent to those in charge of things for Biden and the Democrats.