Even Conservative Republicans With 2 Functioning Brain Cells Opposing Trump
Other than for New York polling, we don’t cite Siena’s work much here. They’re as good as anyone for New York surveys. Nationally… not so much. The small Catholic college in suburban Albany (Loudonville) has around 3,000 students and the NY Times picked them— for whatever reason— to partner with on state and national polling, giving them out-sized credibility. At this time in 2020 their polling showed Biden with a 7-9 point lead nationally over Trump, not very accurate at all. Biden won by around 4.5 points in the popular vote. Four years earlier, in September, is shows Hillary with a 3-4 point lead over Trump, also inaccurate. She won the popular vote by 2 points but lost the electoral college. Today’s poll, likely an outlier, is awarded instant credibility and will be cited by the corporate media for the text two weeks because of the Times affiliation. It shows Trump leading Kamala by a point. The latest YouGov poll for The Economist, the outfit I find most valuable, shows Kamala with a 2-point edge over Trump among registered voters.
The takeaway from the Siena poll is that “a sizable share of voters still say they need to know more about her.” You would think that knowing what they know about Trump would be enough, no? And it’s true that despite being vice president for 3 years and a US Senator before that, her public profile has been overshadowed by Biden's presidency, and her specific role in policies and decisions hasn’t been visible to voters and has been grotesquely distorted by the Trump campaign and their media allies. Many voters don’t feel they have enough direct knowledge of her positions or leadership style.
And let’s not pretend that California and New York are like much of the rest of the country where women, and particularly women of color, often face more “scrutiny” than their male counterparts. Many low-info, undecided voters— perhaps subconsciously— hold Kamala to a higher or different standard, feeling that they need more reassurances about her, at least in part to the 24-7 negative portrayals from Fox, Hate Talk Radio and the Russian-subsidized right-wing media universe. I would think this would be weirdest to a DWT reader but, believe it or not, despite Trump’s— let’s say— unprecedented behavior and controversial presidency, many voters feel they “know” him. Familiarity, even negative, sometimes leads to a preference for the devil one knows over uncertainty about the alternative.
Speaking of which, on Saturday, Trump threatened, that if he wins, he’ll take action against Democrats involved in politics above the level of mere voters:
Maggie Haberman called it “the latest escalation in the former president’s language concerning election fraud... threaten[ing] to use the power of the government against people.”
He also posted his ugly rhetoric on Twitter where Democratic election lawyer Marc Elias responded “We won’t let Donald Trump intimidate us. We won’t let him suppress the vote. We won’t let him subvert the election. We won’t let him cheat. We will fight and we will WIN.”
Sounds like a chilling reminder of how democracies can slide toward authoritarianism, even quietly slip under the waves of tyranny. His rhetoric isn’t just an attempt to delegitimize the electoral process but also to foster fear among political opponents— a hallmark of how democratic norms erode, laying the groundwork for authoritarianism. Remind anyone of how Hitler laid waste to Weimar Germany in the 1930s? Like Trump today, Hitler used propaganda, intimidation and claims of electoral fraud to delegitimize political opponents. Once in office, he systematically dismantled democratic institutions, passed emergency decrees and suppressed opposition, culminating in a one-party Nazi state. Trump has learned from Hitler, just as Hitler learned from Mussolini's rise in the 1920s, which featured aggressive propaganda, violent suppression of opposition through the Fascist Blackshirts and the exploitation of electoral manipulation. He gradually stripped the Italian parliament of its power, leading to a totalitarian regime. Mussolini,Hitler and Trump have all worked assiduously to undermine trust in the electoral system while normalizing authoritarian discourse. Trump's continued assertions about “rampant cheating” and threats of prosecutions, if left unchecked, is pushing the U.S. toward a similar path of democratic backsliding— scarier still because we have already seen the disintegration of any semblence of an independent judiciary.
Believe me, I know a lot of folks don’t want to hear me talking about ancient Greece— so I suggest skipping the next paragraph or two if you’re one of them. But there really are several lessons for us on how democracies can deteriorate, the most notable example being the collapse of Athenian democracy in the 5th century BCE. While the context is obviously quite different from modern times, there are some parallels in how democratic systems can erode.
Let’s start in 431-404 BCE when Athens was involved in a long and devastating war with Sparta (the Peloponnesian War), which saw the erosion of democratic norms, weakened under the pressures of war, fear and internal strife. Leaders like Alcibiades manipulated public sentiment, stoking fear and division. His shifting loyalties and manipulations led to instability, similar to modern authoritarian tendencies where leaders exploit crises for personal gain, no one more so than Señor T. In 411 BCE, during a low point in the Peloponnesian War, the Athenian democracy was overthrown and replaced by an oligarchy known as the Four Hundred, a small group of elites who took power by exploiting fear of war and internal enemies. The coup was justified as a temporary measure, echoing how leaders in other periods justify authoritarian measures by claiming it’s necessary for survival. After Athens was defeated by Sparta, a group of oligarchs called the Thirty Tyrants seized power. Supported by the Spartans, this regime executed and exiled thousands of Athenians, suppressing democratic norms. This episode shows how a democracy can be dismantled through external intervention, internal factionalism, and fearmongering.
Figures like Cleon in Athens were known for their demagoguery, appealing to popular passions and using inflammatory rhetoric to stir up anger against political enemies. This is comparable to how modern populist leaders, particularly Trump, use fear and distrust of opponents to undermine democratic institutions. Cleon’s aggressive tactics and disregard for deliberation weakened Athenian democracy, contributing to its eventual downfall.
Fear of being labeled a loser has been motivational in Trump’s whole life. There was no way he would ever accept that either Hillary or Biden got more votes than he did or even that Obama had more people attend his inauguration than attended Trump’s, etc. He learned ealy how to use gaslighting to his advantage among his beloved "poorly educated." That's still his demographic... the largest and most rapidly growing demographic in America.
As for Trump “the dealmaker,” watch his interview Piers Moragn did with Tim Miller. “Trump was supposed to be a deal maker. Didn't meet with any of the Democratic senators. He said he was going to be the ‘Art of the Deal man,’ but he didn't try to actually do any deals. All he did was insult people on Twitter, and then after he lost to Kamala Harris, fair and square, and Joe Biden, he didn't have the dignity to try to have a transfer of power for the first time in American history. It’s shameful. It’s embarrassing… [H]e gets in the White House, and he doesn't even try to work with the Democrats on a deal. All he does is insult them, he does nicknames, he trashes them. He didn’t cut any deals. Joe Biden ended up being the dealmaker— the bipartisan deals on gay marriage, on infrastructure…”
If voters had roundly repudiated the evil ones, you wouldn't have them to write about. And in this current shithole, voters refuse to roundly repudiate the evil one even though 2 in 3 eligible voters will not be voting for him. the "other" party that 1 in 3 voters support has not been deserving of any support for 60 years... yet here we all are.
And the biggest "deal" biden made with trump? Naming the colossal pussy merrick garland as AG, almost surely based on a promise to not prosecute trump for treason and insurrection. And to wait on other lesser crimes until those pretenses could coincide with this election in the hopes it would diminish him. They did not.
Democracies are fickle things. As the prescient quote from "Men in Black" goes: “A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it”
Sadly, no longer do we have an FDR to appeal to those dumber than shit panicky dangerous animals. We have, instead, another in that long line from Alcibiades to mussolini to hitler to mccarthy to cheney/w to trump.