There are just a tiny handful of uncalled races-- and Republicans are leading in all of them. Both uncalled races in California are re-matches, pitting Trumpist wing-nuts against worthless corporate Democrats. In the ultra-low turnout race in CA-21 (the northern Central Valley) former Congressman David Valadao leads New Dem incumbent TJ Cox 83,564 (50.5%) to 81,946 (49.5%) 100% of the ballots are counted but the race remains uncalled. Cox raised $4,798,088 to Valadao's $3,721,619. The DCCC and its allies spent $7.7 million bolstering Cox and the NRCC and it's allies spent $8.3 million bolstering Valadao.
The other California race is in CA-25 where, like in CA-21, there are more registered Democrats than registered Republicans. With 99% of the ballots counted, half term incumbent Mike Garcia (R) is ahead of New Dem Christy Smith 167,871 (50.1%) to 167,500 (49.9%)-- just 371 votes out of 335,371 counted so far.
Iowa's 2nd district, also a blue-leaning district, is a mess where the count isn't complete but where recounts have already begun. Right now the count shows Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) leading Democrat Rita Hart 196,864 (50%) to 196,815 (50%). That's 49 votes out of 393,679 counted so far. Hart raised $3,631,135 to Miller-Meeks' $1,518,295-- the DCCC and it's allies and the NRCC and its allies spending around the same amount-- $7.5 million.
Most of the outstanding races (4) are in New York-- although two Democrats have already conceded, Syracuse progressive Dana Balter and reactionary Blue Dog Max Rose. That leaves two more Blue Dogs, both pretty far behind. On Long Island's South Shore, Peter King retired and Republican Andrew Garbarino is leading Blue Dog Jackie Gordon by about 20,000 votes 56.4% to 42.6%. Gordon outspent Garbarino 3 to 1 and the DCCC and its allies spent both of $8 million. The NRCC and its allies spent a little over $5 million.
Way up north NY-22 is hosting a re-match between Trumpist imbecile Claudia Tenney, the former Member, who was defeated in 2018 by far right Blue Dog Anthony Brindisi, the worst Democrat in Congress. With 92% of the vote counted, Tenney is ahead 149,769 (50.4%) to 140,644 (47.4%). He raised $5,359,636 to her $2,053,931 and the DCCC, et al spent around $8 million to the NRCC, et al's $11 million.
Writing for NBC News this morning, Alex Seitz-Wald and Benjy Sarlin reported that the down-ballot election results were brutal for the Democrats and "that could haunt them for years. The party fumbled key Senate races, lost ground in the House, and failed to capture state legislatures in a redistricting year despite having the political winds at their backs, more money in their bank accounts and a hyper-activated grassroots that had spent four years preparing for this moment. If this wasn't the year for Democrats to win big, then when can they?"
Seitz-Wald and Sarlin interviewed more than two dozen operatives and elected officials who told them that the results present setting up a picture of "a bleak next decade of uphill fights in which winning workable legislative majorities will be difficult at both the state and federal level. Of special concern was the party's lackluster showing in state legislative races, not only because the GOP will once again have the upper-hand in drawing districts, but because it revealed a fundamental problem communicating the Democratic party's brand."
A brand? A brand? The Democrats have a brand? You could knock me over with a feather. What could the brand possibly be? "We are corporate whores?" "We suck but we're better than the Republicans?" "Careerism uber alles?" They are a big tent party with a tent big enough so that there can't really be a brand that means anything to anyone, without offending someone.
State Rep. Chris Turner, the Democratic leader in Texas' state House told them "We have to demonstrate that we are the party that's on the side of working families." They word there is "demonstrate," because many working class voters no longer trust the Democrats-- and for good reason. They have spent decades cultivating interests antithetical to the working class.
For a long time, Democrats took as gospel that their future was secure as the country grew younger and more diverse, so long as they turned out those voters.
But turnout broke records this year and not only did Democrats fall short of their hopes, but Republicans ate into Democratic advantages with non-white voters they had considered part of their base.
Some worry that the party, once rooted in the working class but now run and funded largely by college-educated liberals, may be losing its touch with blue-collar voters of all races outside major metro areas.
In Texas, 2 counties (Hays and Williamson in the Austin area) that had voted for Trump in 2016 flipped to Biden. BUT, 7 counties that voted for Hillary flipped to Trump: Zapata, Frio, Jim Wells, Val Verde, La Salle, Reeves and Kenedy. And 13 counties that Hillary won and Biden both won, moved in a redder direction, some (like Duval, Culberson, Starr, Willacy and Maverick) now on the tipping point of voting Republican. Now look at the demographics of the counties that went from Hillary to Señor Trumpanzee:
Zapata- 84.78% Latino
Frio- 73.76% Latino
Jim Wells- 75.71% Latino
Val Verde- 75.5% Latino
La Salle- 77.12% Latino
Reeves- 74.2% Latino
Kenedy- 78.99% Latino
The two counties that went in the other direction have better educated and financially better off populations-- and both have far fewer Latinos:
Williamson- 23.2% Latinos
Hayes- 29.57% Latinos
In Florida, Democratic strongholds Miami-Dade (65.0% Latino) and Osceola (47.8% Latino) counties moved significantly redder, while Okaloosa County (8.6% Latino) in the Panhandle moved bluer.
Seitz-Wald and Sarlin noted that "White working-class voters started abandoning the party decades ago and some Latino and African-Americans, especially men without college degrees in more rural areas, followed suit this year... LaTosha Brown, co-founder of Black Voters Matter Fund, said younger Black voters in particular were less connected to Democrats and that the party could not take them for granted moving forward. She noted that Trump made a concerted effort to attract them by highlighting his support for a criminal justice reform bill, even as his 'law and order' message portrayed Black activists as violent extremists. 'He's a walking hypocrisy, but Trump is a master at being able to give soundbites and tell people what they want to hear,' she said. 'It was no different when it came to Black voters.' Fault here has been laid on both sides of the party's ideological divide, from party leaders who can sometimes seem out of touch with the daily struggles of working Americans to an activist class that pushes Democratic candidates to adopt sometimes unpopular positions that may not even fully reflect the views of the groups they purport to represent."
They also pointed out that "Trump drove turnout to levels unseen in a century on both sides, and it's unclear what happens if he's gone."
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