Are Republicans Trying To Commit Political Suicide… Or Do They Really Believe Voters Want Gilead?

Killing Pregnant Women: Missouri & Texas

Yesterday when I woke up, splashed across the top of all the news sources were articles about the Texas Supreme Court acceding to the demands of that state's Attorney General, career-long criminal Ken Paxton— still not in prison— to put on hold a lower court order allowing an abortion for a woman, Kate Cox, whose fetus has a fatal condition.

“We fear that justice delayed will be justice denied,” said Molly Duane, a senior staff attorney at the Center for Reproductive Rights, which is representing Cox.

The action by the Texas Supreme Court was the latest twist in an unusual saga unfolding over the state’s abortion bans, which are some of the strictest in the nation, about what is and what is not permitted under their medical exceptions.

In his appeal, Paxton urged the court to act and wrote that if an abortion was allowed, “Nothing can restore the unborn child’s life that will be lost as a result.”

…Paxton’s filings came hours after a district court judge issued a temporary restraining order barring Paxton and others from enforcing the state’s overlapping abortion bans against Cox’s doctor, Damla Karsan, or anyone who assisted her with providing an abortion to Cox.

The report also noted that after the Trump-infected “U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year, the issue of abortion has become a political liability for Republicans in many states.” Actually in pretty much every state. Paxton though, a crackpot extremist, thinks politics are on his side and that religionists fascists will continue to win in Texas. On Friday, Matt Mackowiak, the head of the Travis County Republican Party, said “The political winds are at his back right now.”

I’m not sure what planet Mackowiak thinks he’s living on. Maybe he missed the reaction from voters across the country following the dismantling on Roe v Wade. The first reaction came in Kansas, which has an R+10 PVI— compared to Texas’ R+5. Voters there rejected— 543,855 (59%) to 378,466 (41.0%)— a proposed constitutional amendment banning abortion 6 weeks after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade. That was just the beginning. Let’s ignore what happened in blue state landslides like California, Colorado and Vermont, where voters moved quickly to protect abortion rights. Kentucky is also much redder than Texas (R+16). Just over a year ago, voters there— 52.3% to 47.7%— rejected a Republican constitutional amendment that would have denied the right to an abortion in the state constitution. And last month voters re-elected a pro-Choice Democrat against an anti-Choice Republican backed by the entire GOP establishment, from Trump on down. Something similar happened in Montana (PVI is R+11) last year— by a margin of 52.5 to 47.4% Montana voters rejected a GOP measure that would have given embryos and fetuses legal personhood status. Ohio is slightly redder than Texas— R+6— and last month voters there (56.6% to 43.4%) voted in favor of Issue 1, which ratified an amendment to the state constitution to establish a constitutional right to abortion. Michigan is more of a swing state (R+1) but last year voters there passed a state constitutional amendment— 56.7% to 43.3%— that explicitly added the right to abortion and contraception to the state constitution. 

Karthik Soora, a Blue America-endorsed candidate for the state legislature in Houston doesn’t think the wind is at their backs at all. Yesterday hje told me that Paxton’s actions were “unacceptable. The entire Republican establishment has closed ranks around Paxton, and the Supreme Court’s intervention is abhorrent. In 2024, 3 members of the Texas Supreme Court will be up for re-election, and voters in the Lone Star State need to throw them out and make this the first Democratic state pickup in decades.”

The Texas news overshadowed— because it’s Texas— even worse news from Missouri. And, yes, Missouri is much redder than Texas— R+10. This might be a good time to note that aside from an extreme right-wing governor, Missouri’s legislature is a Republican hellhole— a House with 111 Republicans and 51 Democrats and a Senate with 24 Republicans and 10 Dems. Missouri Republicans are pushing a pair of bills that would mean women who get abortions could be charged with murder. Remember when Republicans said they would never do anything like that? And although prosecutors in St. Louis, Boone and Jackson counties, might not charge women with murder, it isn't much of a stretch to imagine what bloodthirsty zealots seeking to make a name for themselves in Franklin, Jefferson, Cass, Pettis, Newton, Taney, Cape Girardeau, Webster, St. Charles, Butler, Scott, Christian, Greene and Cole counties-- to name just a few-- would do.

Yesterday, reporting for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Kacen Bayless wrote that “The proposed legislation would give fetuses the same rights as human beings, which would allow for criminal charges to be filed against anyone who gets an abortion, helps someone get an abortion or provides abortion care in the state… Sen. Mike Moon (R-Ash Grove) and Rep. Bob Titus (R-Billings) pre-filed the bills on Dec. 1 ahead of next year’s legislative session, which begins next month. The bills, both called the ‘Abolition of Abortion in Missouri Act,’ do not state explicitly whether getting an abortion in another state would be illegal.”

It’s worth remembering that Missouri voters are fighting  to get a measure restoring some form of abortion on the state ballot next year— something that Republicans are fighting tooth and nail, as the GOP did— unsuccessfully— in Ohio and are also doing right now in Florida.

Bayless wrote that “While Missouri remains staunchly conservative, abortion rights remain popular. Polling conducted last year by St. Louis University and British pollster YouGov showed that a majority of Missourians were in favor of some level of legal abortion and disagreed with the state’s ban on abortion... Moon, a hard-right senator, is known for his extreme and fringe views within the General Assembly, including comments this year suggesting that children as young as 12 should be able to get married as he pushed legislation that would ban gender-affirming care for minors... Another Republican, state Rep. Brian Seitz from Branson also pre-filed a bill that would give fetuses the same protections as human beings— but his bill does not explicitly address criminal actions.”

Republicans who want to win Senate seats, on the other hand, are treading a little more carefully on the issue of women’s choice, pretending they’re not in the same party as Paxton, Moon and Titus-- or even their own former selves! Even a MAGA psychopath like Kari Lake is trying to sound quasi-sane in her Arizona Senate election, going from support for banning all abortions last year to “a more nuanced position: opposing a federal ban and acknowledging that her own views regarding state policy conflict with some voters’ preferences.” That’s what the NRSC is suggestion its candidates do. Last year, GOP fat cat and failed Senate candidate Dave McCormick said that that life begins at conception and that "in very rare instances, there should be exceptions for the life of the mother.” Suddenly this year, McCormick is all for exceptions. Ditto for anti-Choice candidates in Nevada, Ohio and Michigan… they’re suddenly not for federal abortion bans any longer, no matter what they used to say.