Joni Ernst Gave In Without A Fight— What Will Thom Tillis Do?
North Carolina Republican Thom Tillis is up for reelection next year. He was the pivotal vote who could have stopped Pete Hegseth when 3 other Republicans voted against confirming him, forcing JD Vance to step in and break the tie. Had Tillis done what he knew was the right thing, there would have been no tie and the U.S. would have been saved from a corrupt and incompetent, unqualified drunk at the head of the military. But Willis didn’t do the right thing; he left McConnell, Murkowski and Collins out on a limb and voted for Trump’s crackpot nominee. Coming up: Kash Patel, Pam Bondi, Tulsi Gabbard, RFK Jr…
Tillis was censured by the North Carolina Republican Party in 2023 for his votes in favor of a modest gun control compromise and in favor of marriage equality. Trump failed to force his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, into the open Florida Senate seat and is now discreetly pushing her as a primary candidate against Tillis. Democrats Roy Cooper and Wiley Nickel seem certain to run in a state where successful Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein just out-polled Trump 3,069,496 (54.9%) to 2,898,423 (51.0%) and where Democratic candidates for Attorney General, Secretary of State, Lieutenant Governor and Superintendent of Public Education beat their GOP opponents.
Tillis has a narrow path to reelection and he likes his job. He can’t be seen as a Trump antagonist— nor as a lockstep Trump puppet. He probably wants to vote against one Trump nominee, to show some independence, but support all the others— like Hegseth— to show his loyalty. That won’t work for Trump, not at all. He wants obedience more than any semblance of reasonable loyalty. This morning, a trio of top NBC reporters wrote that Trump has a message for senators like Tillis: “get on board with all of Trump’s nominees, warning of political consequences for those who defy him. ‘It’s pass-fail. You either support everyone or you don’t,’ a senior White House official told NBC News. ‘The Senate needs to advise and consent, not advise and adjust.’”
Many are terrified at the thought of Musk’s money being turned against them, as has been threatened, if they defy Trump in any way, on any vote. Cowardly Iowa Republican Joni Ernst made some noises about opposing Hegseth early on, but Trump and Musk shut that down in a nano-second and she was never heard from gain. Meanwhile, stickman puppets like John Hoeven (R-ND) puts it like this: “There is a strong feeling in our caucus that the president gets deference to get his team on the field. The people elected him to do that [acknowledging that there are] some differences of opinion. And those are the ones that are more challenging to get through.” Kristi Noem may be ill-suited for her new job as Homeland Security Secretary, but there was no talk about any Republicans opposing her. In fact, even several of the worst gutless Democrats, like Shaheen, Fetterman and Slotkin, voted to confirm her.
“There is a very well-funded consortium of outside groups and political actors that are sophisticated, smart and tough. We’ve already seen that they’ve provided air support and narrative support to some nominees,” said the official, referring to allied groups close to, but not directly controlled by, the White House. “They’ll still be very well-funded when the nominations are over, and they’ll exact consequences, I’m sure, to those who do not support the president’s nominees and get them to the finish line.”
… Still, there is some unease. One Republican senator who has voted for all of Trump’s nominees so far said his colleagues will be wary of national security picks who “sound more like Tucker Carlson than a Republican,” referring to the hard-right conservative commentator who has been seen as friendly to U.S. adversaries such as Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“We’ll only give so much,” said the senator, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the internal Senate thinking. “Because this is the future of the country. It’s not entertainment television.”
The White House is most concerned about Gabbard, with the official saying she has “the most work for herself” ahead.
“She needs to emphasize that she knows how critical intelligence is, and this is a life-or-death matter,” the official said.
The three Republicans who opposed Hegseth were Maine’s Susan Collins, a blue-state GOP senator facing re-election in 2026; Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski, a moderate who has overcome challenges from the right for many years; and Kentucky’s Mitch McConnell, who recently stepped down as the longest-serving leader in Senate history and is widely expected to retire after his term ends in January 2027.
Trump has less leverage over those three senators than the other 50. And Republicans can afford only three defections.
Another senator, North Carolina’s Thom Tillis, was on the fence about Hegseth until the very end, and the White House feared he might tank the nominee. Tillis also faces re-election in 2026, but needs to get through a GOP primary first.
“Were we frustrated? Yes. Concerned about the remote chance it could go down? Sure,” the senior White House official said of Tillis’ hesitations.
The Trump pressure campaign came after Republicans quietly tanked the nomination of former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) to be attorney general.
…“With all deliberate speed, the WH wants the cabinet nominees confirmed— President Trump doesn’t need to signal that to MAGA , we know it— anyone standing in the way will get the same treatment Joni Ernst and Tom Tillis received,” Steve Bannon, Trump’s former chief White House strategist and an influential right-wing media figure, said in a text message.
Bannon also warned that McConnell “will be singled out for special treatment this coming week.”
…After the Hegseth vote, some Democrats were livid.
“Unfortunately, my Republican colleagues are really pretty spineless,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) said. “This vote may well haunt them.”
That will depend on how many voters value independence over loyalty. Republicans facing reelection in states that could conceivably vote for a Democrat include:
Thom Tillis (NC)
Joni Ernst (IA)
Susan Collins (ME)
Ashley Moody (FL)
John Cornyn (TX)
John Husted (OH)
And then there’s Bill Cassidy, who is facing a Trump-backed primary opponent, John Fleming. Other Republican incumbents with vaguely credible MAGA opposition include Cornyn, Ernst and Shelley Moore Capito (WV), enough pressure to keep them voting party-line.
Let's remember that this battle over Trump’s shitty cabinet nominees isn’t just about personnel— it’s a proxy war for the soul of the GOP. Tillis, and a few others, find themselves caught between competing pressures: loyalty to Trump’s MAGA agenda, the diverse expectations of home state voters and their own political survival. The strategy of giving Trump deference on almost every vote while trying to signal independence where it feels “safe” is ultimately doomed. Trump has no tolerance for half-measures, and his threats of political consequences for dissenters are not idle. The growing influence of figures like Musk and Bannon, alongside the MAGA base’s stranglehold on the GOP, makes it clear: total obedience or obliteration.
For voters in North Carolina, Texas, Iowa, Maine, Ohio— maybe even Florida, though probably not— we’ll be watching to see whether voters reward obedience to Trump, or finally reject principles-free MAGA extremism. That starts with Democrats selecting talented candidates with good ideas that voters are attracted to. That's what takes Iowa and Florida out of contention.