America Would Absolutely Be Better Off If The Republicans Can't Elect A Speaker Next Friday

If The Impasse Lasts Long Enough, Trump Couldn't Be Sworn In... This Senile Fella Would Be:

Yesterday I spent a long time on the phone with a pretty senior member of Congress. We got around to talking about the Democratic Members of the House rumored to be getting ready to retire: John Garamendi (CA-1945), Jerry Nadler (NY-1947), Jan Schakowsky (IL-1944), Frederica Wilson (FL-1942), Steny Hoyer (MD-1939), Danny Davis (IL-1941), Doris Matsui (CA- 1944), Bonnie Watson Coleman (NJ-1945)… maybe Pelosi (1940)? He said that there will probably be more because this is going to be a gut-wrenching and horrible couple of years in Congress. 

“Are these clowns even going to be able to elect a speaker next week?” We both knew that Thomas Massie (R-KY) isn’t voting for MAGA Mike. He felt that Trump could twist the arms of the other MAGA-Mike skeptics— like Eric Burlison from Missouri, Andy Biggs and Eli Crane from Arizona, Scott Perry from Pennsylvania, Andy Ogles from Tennessee and Greg Steube from Florida. But by the time we were off the phone Freedom Caucus chair Andy Harris  (MD) issued a statement: “Before the last couple of weeks, I was in his corner, but now we should consider what’s the best path forward. We do need to consider if we’re going to advance Trump’s agenda whether the current leadership is what we need.”

A few hours later Scott Perry, a former chair of the caucus, on Fox News, said “Right now, I think that Mike has done an admirable job under tough conditions, but I’m going to keep my options open. I want to have a conversation with Mike… What members are seeking is what they think is good for the country, and they don’t see, in some cases, where Speaker Johnson has gotten us to the place where we can claim that we’ve achieved that… I’ll tell you, the one that might be able to make the difference is, quite honestly, President Trump. Whoever the president backs, is likely to be the Speaker regardless.”

Yesterday Fox ran a piece by their senior congressional reporter, Chad Pergram, The Hitchhiker’s Guide to failing to elect a House speaker quickly. He wrote that it comes as no surprise that MAGA Mike could “face a problem winning the Speaker’s gavel immediately when the new Congress convenes at noon on January 3. Congressional experts knew that Johnson could be in trouble once the contours of the reed-thin House majority came into focus weeks after the November election. This could blossom into a full-blown crisis for Johnson— and House Republicans— when the Speaker’s vote commences a little after 1 pm next Friday.”

Johnson emerges bruised from last week’s government funding donnybrook. Anywhere from four to ten Republicans could oppose Johnson in the Speaker’s race.

Here’s the math:

The House clocks in at 434 members with one vacancy. That’s thanks to former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL). He resigned his position for this Congress a few weeks ago. Even though Gaetz won re-election in November, his resignation letter— read on the floor of the House— signaled he did not plan to serve in the new Congress which begins in January.

This is the breakdown when the Congress starts: 219 Republicans to 215 Democrats.

President-elect Trump’s pick for National Security Advisor, Rep. Michael Waltz (R-FL) remains in the House for now. So does Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY). Trump tapped her to serve as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. That’s pending Senate confirmation— perhaps in late January or early February. Once Waltz and Stefanik resign, the GOP majority dwindles to 217-215.

But the Speaker’s election on January 3 poses a special challenge. Here’s the bar for Johnson— or anyone else: The Speaker of the House must win an outright majority of all Members casting ballots for someone by name. In other words, the person with the most votes does not win. That’s what happened repeatedly to former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) when he routinely outpolled House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (R-NY) for Speaker to begin this Congress in January 2023. But it took days for McCarthy to cross the proper threshold.

 More on that in a moment.

So let’s crunch the math for Mike Johnson. If there are 219 Republicans and four vote for someone besides him— and all Democrats cast ballots for Jeffries, the tally is 215-214. But there’s no Speaker. No one attained an outright majority of all Members casting ballots for someone by name. 218 is the magic number if all 434 Members vote.

By rule, this paralyzes the House. The House absolutely, unequivocally, cannot do anything until it elects a Speaker. Period.

The House can’t swear-in Members. Technically, they’re still Representatives-elect. Only after the House chooses its Speaker does he or she in turn swear-in the membership.

The House certainly can’t pass legislation. It can’t form committees. It’s frozen in a parliamentary paralysis until it elects a Speaker.

 Now, I hope you’re sitting down for the next part.

This also means that the House cannot certify the results of the Electoral College, making President-elect Trump the 47th President of the United States on January 6.

The failure to elect a Speaker compels the House to vote over and over….

And over.. and.. over..

Until it finally taps someone.

McCarthy’s election incinerated 15 ballots over five days two years ago.

The House settled into a Congressional cryogenic freeze for three weeks after Members ousted McCarthy in October of 2023. It burned through two Speaker candidates off the floor— House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN)— and one candidate on the floor: Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH).

So you see the problem.

Consider for a moment that prior to last year, the House never went to a second ballot to select a Speaker since Speaker Frederick Gillett (R-MA) in 1923.

It took 63 ballots before the House finally settled on Speaker Howell Cobb (D-GA) in 1849.

But that’s nothing. The longest Speaker’s election consumed two months before the House elected Speaker Nathaniel Banks (R-MA) in 1856— on the 133rd ballot.

So anything which elongates this into a collision with January 6th— the statutory day to certify the election results and now one of the most ignominious days in American history— is dangerous.

 …What happens if the Electoral College isn’t sorted out by January 20? …  91-year-old Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) becomes Senate President Tempore. Grassley has served in the Senate since 1981.

If the House is still frittering away time, trying to elect a Speaker on January 20, Grassley likely becomes “Acting President.”

I write “likely” because this gets into some serious, extra-Constitutional turf. These are unprecedented scenarios. Strange lands never visited in the American political experience.

And it all hinges on Mike Johnson— or frankly, someone else— wrapping up the Speaker’s vote with dispatch on January 3. Any interregnum like the past two Speaker’s elections begins establishing challenging historical precedents.

But frankly, it’s unclear if the House can avoid such contretemps.

It’s about the math. And once again, balancing that parliamentary equation is tenuous at best.