All Congressional Republicans May Be Criminals But Not All Criminals In Congress Are Republicans

This is what an Egyptian Spy Looks Like-- and sounds likez? (click)

On Tuesday, Tammy Murphy— the governor’s wife who is getting her US Senate campaign together— had a meeting with Craig Guy the incoming Hudson County Executive. He runs, at least in part, the most important Democratic Machine in the state. Neither wants the name “Menendez” on the county line— not just Robert Menendez but also not Rob Menendez, his son.

There’s likely to be a primary for the congressional seat Menendez Jr holds— him (as of today, without the county line), Jersey City councilman James Solomon and Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla. But I don’t see a primary with Senator Menendez, just a fight between Murphy and Andy Kim. I think the Senator will resign or just not run again as part of a plea deal. That was a flaw in Tuesday’s Atlantic column by Lora Kelly, Why This Time Is Different For Menendez. She assumes Sr. is going to run.

On Monday, Sr, pleaded not guilty to the new superseding charge that he was an agent for Egypt. Right after that, Menendez announced that “the government is engaged in primitive hunting, by which the predator chases its prey until it’s exhausted and then kills it. This tactic won’t work.” That came a few weeks “after he pleaded not guilty to three separate counts of corruption. Menendez and his wife, Nadine, were accused of accepting bribes worth hundreds of thousands of dollars in exchange for helping the government of Egypt and several businessmen. The original indictment was quite dramatic,” wrote Kelly, “peppered with talk of more than $500,000 of stashed-away cash and photos of gold bars found in his New Jersey home. Within hours of Menendez’s indictment, several state leaders, including the governor, called on him to step down. But Menendez is fighting hard against the allegations, even as colleagues turn on him.”

Menendez, 69, is as crooked as they come and has been getting away with it for nearly his whole career in politics. That’s how corrupt New Jersey politics are— bipartisan too. His trial is tentatively scheduled for May in a federal court in Manhattan and I’m guessing Menendez will cop a plea a day or two before the trial. Like George Santos, he’s looking for the best deal he can get in return for pleading guilty and giving up his seat. More than half the Democrats in the Senate— although no Republicans— have called on his to resign. He’s out on a $100,000 bond.

Menendez has positioned himself as a victim, and has invoked identity politics in trying to defend himself. “It is not lost on me how quickly some are rushing to judge a Latino and push him out of his seat,” he said shortly after his initial indictment was announced. He has also accused “those behind this campaign” of smearing him as part of their political agenda: “For years, forces behind the scenes have repeatedly attempted to silence my voice and dig my political grave,” he said in a statement last month. “Menendez has been using explicitly Trump-y talking points in his defense,” my colleague David Graham, who has covered the Menendez charges, told me.

The Menendez imbroglio puts the Democrats in a difficult position. The party has enjoyed some moral high ground as Donald Trump faces various criminal indictments. But having a member of their own party facing such galling corruption charges— and saying in his own defense that, essentially, the deep state is out to get him— may not only undermine that high ground, David said. It may weaken Democrats’ case against Trump’s own statements about being the victim of deep-state machinations, and it could damage voters’ faith in the Democratic Party.

This is not Menendez’s first time facing federal bribery charges: In 2015, he was accused of receiving gifts and some $750,000 in campaign donations from a Florida eye doctor. Those charges resulted in a hung jury, and ultimately the judge declared a mistrial. Menendez was able to maintain his seat through the turmoil, and he denied any wrongdoing. His colleagues, by and large, stood by him. But this time, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy called on Menendez to resign almost immediately after his indictment, and other state Democratic leaders soon followed. Cory Booker, the junior senator from New Jersey who has called Menendez a mentor and friend, urged his colleague to step down a few days after the indictment. Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, meanwhile, has reportedly confronted Menendez in the halls of Congress (or, more precisely, on an escalator) to tell him to resign. More than half of Senate Democrats have called on Menendez to resign, though Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has been more reserved. “The Senator has made it clear that he is innocent and will not resign from his position as the senior U.S. Senator for New Jersey,” Robert Julien, a spokesperson for Mendendez’s office, told me in an email.

Part of the reason that many of Menendez’s colleagues are turning against him this time, David explained, has to do with the relative severity of the charges. Bribery charges are never a great look, but the charges Menendez currently faces cut to the core of his committee work in the Senate, accusing him of using his position as the head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to work on behalf of a foreign power.

The calculations are likely political too: The last time Menendez faced bribery charges, Republican Chris Christie was the governor of New Jersey. If Menendez had given up his seat, Christie could have appointed a Republican in his place. Now the state has a Democratic governor in Murphy, who would presumably appoint a Democrat to replace him, David explained. Even so, Democrats are anxious about introducing uncertainty when they have such a razor-thin majority over Republicans in the Senate. Democrats have become more and more obsessed with beating their Republican opponents. That fixation on winning comes at a cost, David said: “If you are so focused on beating Republicans that you’re willing to look past corruption allegations, you ultimately undermine yourself, even if you can win the next election.”

But whether Menendez can actually win his next election is still a major question. He is a savvy backroom fighter, David explained, which has helped him stay in power in the cutthroat world of New Jersey politics. “There’s lots of backstabbing in ways that are totally legal, but not necessarily savory,” he said. Menendez has hung on through turbulence, but whether he can make it through this scandal intact will be, in part, up to the courts. It will also be up to voters.

Menendez’s trial is scheduled to begin on May 6, about a month before the primary race for his Senate seat. So far, Menendez has made no public indication that he won’t run for reelection. But his odds are not looking promising. He is being trounced in polls by Andrew Kim, a member of the House of Representatives who announced his campaign for Menendez’s seat the day after the senator was indicted. Menendez is innocent until proven guilty, but his constituents might just be ready to move on.

Menendez is so disliked by New Jersey voters that a new poll shows just 8% approve of him. 71% of voters think he should resign immediately. Meanwhile, most New Jersey politicians and operatives I’ve spoken to assume he’ll be in prison before the 2024 election. And that Jr. won’t be going back to Congress.