A Blue Dog Who Might Not Be Terrible? It Would Be Novel— First Will Rollins Has To Beat Ken Calvert

Democrats Are Always Better Than Republicans— Why Can't They Wipe The Floor With Them?

After yearslong rabid Republican opposition, I was so glad to see Biden’s student loan plan get green-lighted yesterday. And it wasn’t only the Republicans that worried me. It’s no stretch for a major conservative Kamala campaign contributor— say Reid Hoffman, worst of the lot— to look at her cross-eyed and have her pull support for the plan. Yes, of course, she’s infinitely better than Trump— no comparison— but…  that’s who she is.

Yesterday, U.S. District Judge Randall Hall, a George W Bush appointee, allowed the restraining order on the plan, which he had extended two weeks ago, to expire, pissing off reactionary anti-education Republican attorneys general in Florida, North Dakota, Ohio, Georgia, Alabama, Missouri and Arkansas. 

Biden’s plan would cancel student loan debut for more than 25 million borrowers, down from the original 43 million that the Republican U.S. Supreme Court nixed in 2023, worried that it could benefit Democratic candidates this year.

Doesn’t it seem odd to you that the election is this close when Trump and his MAGA movement are so against virtually everything Americans would like to see happen? Are people just not paying attention? Are the Democrats too incompetent to hammer the message home? Here’s an ad that has nothing to do with the DCCC or Ohio Democratic Party. I think it’s brilliant and we’d like to see it on the air in the red-turning-purple district of Ohio where Jerrad Christian is challenging do-nothing-Republican lump Troy Balderson. Watch the ad and if you want to see us get a version of it up on MSNBC and CNN, contribute to the Blue America independent expenditure committee here.

Meanwhile, over in DCCC territory— basically blue districts in New York and California where awful candidates lost in 2022— the Democrats are struggling to elect the worst roster of candidates I’ve ever seen, almost entirely conservative BlueDogs and New Dems, some who have already proven to the voters, in other positions, that their political is one thing: corruption. There’s only one reason anyone who knows anything about candidates like John Avlon and John Mannion in New York and Rudy Salas and Adam Gray in California would logically consider voting for them— to recapture the majority for the party, even if these candidates will frequently tend to vote with the Republicans.

Yesterday, Deirdre Walsh reported Democrats lost five seats in suburban districts, mostly around New York City, as many in the party were caught off guard. This year top Democrats across the state have joined forces to try to win those seats back, potentially netting the four seats they need to win back control of the chamber… Gillibrand, Hochul, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and state party leaders have opened 40 offices in seven House districts and hired 100 full-time staffers. Republicans have just five similar ‘battle station’ offices. Democrats linked state and local party operations. That effort has allowed them to make over 2 million contacts with voters between knocking on doors and phone calls, according to a spokeswoman for Hochul. The strategy focuses on a more sophisticated get-out-the-vote effort, but it also includes going on offense on the issues that hurt the party the most two years ago— crime and immigration.”

It’s so tragic that they don’t think about recruiting great candidates that voters want to see in Congress representing them, instead of the dog shit that they’re begging the voters to support. I guess I should mention that Jeffries politics don’t go beyond careerism and that both Gillibrand and Hochul were BlueDogs themselves when they were in the House, both really terrible so… how would they even guess that their candidates are crap? “Hey, he’s just like me; must be great!”

All these candidates are now running as Republican-lite politicians, a surety to depress interest in their races. NPR correctly pointed out that “Republicans say they still have the upper hand when it comes to the issues that got them elected in the first place.”

California has 6 DCCC Red to Blue candidates (to New York’s 5). The Progressive Caucus endorsed one, Dave Min, former staffer for Chuck Schumer who coordinated between his office and Wall Street and who later wound up in the state Senate where he distinguished himself with this record:

And he’s the best of the 6! Maybe. I have a feeling that one of the others, Will Rollins, a Blue Dog, might turn out pretty good too. Everything I’ve seen from him for the past 3 years— other than the Blue Dog embrace— has been pretty good. He’s running against a crooked old Republican in the Inland Empire, Ken Calvert. It’s just a gut feeling but if I had to guess which Blue Dog will turn out the least bad next year, it would be Rollins. But he’s still a Blue Dog, so don’t let your hopes get too high. YesterdayDavid Dayen took a look. The parts of his reporting about Rollins were interesting but he spent my of his time rehashing some of the corruption charges against Calvert. Start by watching this classic Fox News special on Calvert’s scumbaggery:

Calvert’s district (CA-41) has been redrawn and his seat is rated a toss-up. In 2022, Rollins, a federal prosecutor, nearly beat him. The House Majority PAC ignored the race and the DCCC spent $95 on Rollins’ behalf. Had they spent some money on his instead of wasting millions on far worse candidates, he would have won. So far the DCCC and Houser Majority PAC are doing the same thing— nothing but lip service while they pour money into the shittiest candidates they can find. [Note: I'm being told the House Majority PAC is going to help... soon.] Polling shows a dead heat.

Rollins has suggested that assets of members of Congress should be placed in a blind trust. He asked for three debates  with Calvert, but the incumbent has so far turned down all requests. The Republican strategy has been fairly boilerplate,  tying Rollins [implausibly] to crime, taxes and the border.

Even in his first campaign in 2022, Rollins connected the dots from public corruption to decisions made that benefit special interests over constituents. (See this Prospect profile of Rollins I wrote in 2022.) But this time around, Rollins is using the issue to highlight what he’s hearing the most about in the campaign: housing costs. “He’s increased his wealth by up to $20 million, while driving up housing costs for you,” Rollins says to the camera in a recent ad, filmed outside an apartment complex where Calvert is an investor.

“Housing is the biggest stress point in Southern California,” said Rollins. He cited studio apartments in Corona, the district’s biggest city, that cost $2,000 a month. The Inland Empire, in part due to high housing prices on the coast, has become a commuter feeder to jobs in Los Angeles and even San Diego. And while it was once considered affordable, the mass of people being pushed from the coast have sought housing in this area, pushing prices up.

When I ask Rollins what’s needed, he plainly says more units. But then he takes it in an interesting direction. “The market has failed in part because there are hedge funds and private equity firms that have gobbled up real estate, and have allowed units, or land, to artificially sit open when there is demand for it, but because they have market dominance they don’t need to do anything,” he said. His ad on housing makes similar claims about “cracking down on corporate investors who buy up properties and jack up rents.”

I have read about a homebuilder cartel that has gained market share, particularly in local and regional markets, and now engages in land speculation, including by holding onto land for long periods of time, while also working with private equity to offload some of the risk that the land will depreciate in value. This was the first time I’d heard it in the wild, from a would-be policymaker looking at barriers to housing in his district.

Along with cracking down on this investment hoarding strategy, Rollins endorsed Kamala Harris’s various housing policies, like the first-time homebuyer tax credit, and said it was great she was elevating the issue at the top of the ticket. Another antidote to this, he said, would be more access to capital so smaller homebuilders could compete. He mentioned one Coachella Valley nonprofit that seeks regional strategies to develop affordable homes. “What’s happened in the past with funding is that individual developers, or towns or communities, will get their hands on it, but it’s not a strategic countywide type of plan to actually expand the supply,” he said.

I asked Rollins about the Federal Trade Commission’s recent action against Invitation Homes, a corporate single-family rental landlord established after the financial crisis of 2008, for layering on junk fees and taking security deposits. He called it a very relatable problem. “People have been there in places like Corona and Lake Elsinore where they’ve seen a landlord tack on junk fees. Like why did I get billed for this? Why is my cleaning fee if I moved out of my apartment $3,000? Why did they steal my deposit?”

As a former federal prosecutor, Rollins said he was pleased by the Biden administration’s newfound aggressiveness on antitrust, though there could always be more. “We’re living in the modern Gilded Age,” he said. “We need people with courage, but also the funding to go after complex white-collar crimes and civil enforcement.” He told me that one of his favorite books is ProPublica reporter Jesse Eisinger’s The Chickenshit Club, which details why there were no high-level prosecutions after the financial crisis.

It’s an interesting message, connecting the high cost of living with corporate and public corruption. Rollins has a lot of resources to draw from to spread it. He’s raised a whopping $7 million for the race as of the end of June, and while his third-quarter numbers have not yet been released, Rollins said at a fundraiser this week in Rancho Mirage that he expected to hit $10 million after they were announced. He predicted his quarterly numbers would be as big as what he raised for the entire 2022 cycle.

Rollins also has the largest active volunteer base for a House race in the country, according to his field organizer, and will start canvassing every day in the district by the end of the month.

The district has a jaggedy W shape, and while much is made of Palm Springs and the desert cities, about 80 percent of the district’s population is in the western section, including Corona, Menifee, and Lake Elsinore. Turnout in that area lagged in 2022 (Rollins won the eastern Coachella Valley portion by around 20 points). That’s where the campaign is focusing its efforts.

“There are really significant reforms that the next Congress can make,” Rollins told me. “But it takes actually electing people who care.”