Although Who Knows What Will Happen Between Now And Then
This past cycle, there were only 3 congressional districts that Harris won and the same time a Republican won the seat— all three being incumbents who were challenged by centrist Democrats:
NE-02 (even PVI)- Don Bacon beat New Dem Tony Vargas 50.9% to 49.1% (Harris beat Trump by 4.6 points)
NY-17 (D+3)- Mike Lawler beat New Dem Mondaire Jones 52.25 to 45.9% (Harris beat Trump by 0.6 points)
PA-01 (even PVI)- Brian Fitzpatrick beat New Dem Ashley Ehasz 56.4% to 43.6% (Harris beat Trump by 0.3 points)
On the other hand, there were 13 House seats in which Trump beat Harris but where a Democrat beat a Republican in the district's congressional race.
CA-09 (D+5) Incumbent Josh Harder fended off Kevin Lincoln 51.8% to 48.2% (Trump beat Harris by 1.8 points)
CA-13 (D+ 4) Challenger Adam Gray beat incumbent John Duarte 50.04 to 49.96% (Trump beat Harris by 5.4 points)
ME-02 (R+6) Incumbent Jared Golden beat challenger Austin Theriault 50.3% to 49.7% (Trump beat Harris by 9.5 points)
MI-08 (R+1) Open seat challenger Kristen Rivet beat Paul Junge 51.3% to 44.6% for the open seat (Trump beat Harris by 2.0 points)
NC-01 (D+2) Incumbent Don Davis beat challenger Laurie Buckhout 49.5% to 47.8% (Trump beat Harris by 3.1 points)
NJ-09 (D+8) Nellie Pou beat Billy Prempeh for the open seat 50.8% to 45.9% (Trump beat Harris by 1.1 points)
NM-02 (D+1) Incumbent Gabe Vasquez beat former incumbent Yvette Herrell 52.1% to 47.9% (Trump beat Harris by 1.9 points)
NV-03 (D+1) Incumbent Susie Lee beat DrewJohnson 51.4% to 48.6% (Trump beat Harris by 0.7 points)
NY-03 (D+2) Incumbent Tom Suozzi beat challenger Michael LiPetri 51.8% to 48.2% (Trump beat Harris by 5.3 points)
OH-09 (R+3) Incumbent Marcy Kaptur beat challenger Derek Merrin 48.27% to 47.63% (Trump beat Harris by 6.7 points)
TX-28 (D+3) Incumbent Henry Cuellar beat challenger Jay Furman 52.8% to 47.2% (Trump beat Harris by 7.3 points)
TX-34 (D+9) Incumbent Vicente Gonzalez beat challenger Mayra Flores 51.3% to 48.7% (Trump beat Harris by 4.4 points)
WA-03 (R+5) Incumbent Marie Perez beat challenger Joe Kent 51.9% to 48.1% (Trump beat Harris by 3.3 points)
Yesterday. Kyle Kondik reported that “Part of the reason that there are fewer crossover seats now than there used to be is that there have been a number of realignments that have unified how a place votes for president with how it votes for the House. For instance, Republicans used elections like 2010 and 2014 to eliminate moderate-to-conservative white Democrats from the South. In 2018, Democrats knocked out many Republicans from suburban districts that shifted sharply away from Republicans in the Trump era. To the extent there is a realignment that is going on now, it appears to be in heavily Hispanic and/or Asian-American districts that are not nearly as Democratic as they once were. Many of these districts remain Democratic at the topline level and voted for Kamala Harris, just not by as big of margins.”
“But a few appear on this list as Trump districts with Democratic House members,” Klondik continued. "For instance, first-term Rep. Nellie Pou (D, NJ-9) defended a racially diverse, plurality Latino northern New Jersey district held by Rep. Bill Pascrell (D), a long-serving member who died last August. Joe Biden had carried the district by 19 points, but it swung all the way to Trump by 1 point in 2024, a 20-point net change that was one of the largest pro-Republican shifts in any congressional district from 2020 to 2024. Pou herself defeated an unheralded opponent in her race by 5 points. Is this a true battleground district? Certainly by the presidential topline it is, although it’s not uncommon for a realignment— if that is what this is— to take longer to manifest itself below the top of the ticket, and the political environment may be pro-Democratic or at least anti-Republican in 2026, given what typically happens in midterms. But Republicans likely will make a serious play for this district, either this cycle or soon thereafter. Meanwhile, Democratic performance in heavily Latino South Texas had been cratering even before 2024, and there was another sharp turn toward the Republicans there last year, as Reps. Henry Cuellar (D, TX-28) and Vicente Gonzalez (D, TX-34) saw both of their districts flip to Trump, swinging 14 and 20 points, respectively, from 2020 (and this was after both swung double-digits away from Democrats when comparing the 2016 presidential results to 2020). In the context of 2026, Cuellar presents an interesting case, both because he is arguably the least progressive member of the Democratic House caucus and because he is under indictment on serious federal corruption charges, with a [bribery] trial scheduled to begin in September. If Cuellar were to resign, Democrats would have a hard time defending the district in a special election.”
The competitiveness of all of these districts for 2026 will be determined by the political environment and the candidates. Some of these members may seek higher office— for instance, Golden is a possible statewide candidate in Maine, probably likelier for governor than for Senate, while Lawler could run for governor of New York. Given the political talents of both incumbents, both districts would be easier to flip as open seats.
It’s also worth noting that while there are just a few Harris-district Republicans, there are several Republicans in narrow Trump districts that Democrats will target in 2026, such as Reps. Juan Ciscomani (R, AZ-6), Gabe Evans (R, CO-8), Tom Barrett (R, MI-7), Tom Kean Jr. (R, NJ-7), and Jen Kiggans (R, VA-2)— Trump won all of these districts by less than 2 points apiece after Biden carried them in 2020. Remember, too, that Democrats won 215 seats in 2024, so they are already starting from a fairly high point, and they only need to net 3 more to win the House.