The Lesser Evil Party Will Likely Win In November
Blue America has an ActBlue page dedicated to flipping the House. There are no Blue Dogs on the page, no corrupt legislators— like Adam Grey and Rudy Salas— eager to jump into the big times, no Democraps likely to be the next Kyrsten Sinema or Joe Manchin, just solid progressive Democrats up against conservative shills of special interests. Please click on the link and take a look and see if there’s anyone (or two) you think worthy of your support.
Yesterday CNN reported on which districts Hakeem Jeffries’ House Majority PAC has started reserving $146 million of TV and $40 million in digital ads time in. This will be round one and most of the money is “focused on pickup opportunities— including in 16 districts that Joe Biden carried in 2020 now occupied by Republicans— but also the seats that Democrats have to defend, including five in districts that Donald Trump won.” Keep in mind that much of the money will be wasted on exorbitant consulting fees to well-connected political operatives. Last night I had dinner with a senator who told me when he saw how the money he had raised for a state groups was being spent, he decided to start his own PAC. “These guys had no interest in what we were doing and no special skills or knowledge… All those hours I spent on the phone too raise money for those clowns; it made me sick.” Yeah, well… welcome to the DCCC, the DSCC and their affiliated PACs.
Manu Raju reported that the House Majority PAC “whose 2024 investment surpasses the $102 million initially reserved in ads in the 2022 cycle and the $41 million in the 2020 cycle, said it was making its largest investment ever to flood key districts with an aggressive ad campaign, including attacks against Republicans on abortion and the collapse of a bipartisan border security deal.”
Mike Smith, president of House Majority PAC, told him that they are also targeting “key voting blocs— such as Hispanic, Asian American and Black voters— as well as swing voters put off by Trump and the chaos in the House. ‘We need four seats to win back the majority. That’s it.’ It’s a very tough four seats. Every single one of those is going to be trench warfare. We’re going have to invest a lot of money, hence the $186 million, but there’s a clear path to doing it.’ The number, Smith said, could grow as more money is spent later in the election cycle in these key races, arguing the initial investment amounts to ‘laying down the marker.’ The bulk of the money will be spent to flip seats in New York and California, a path Smith said ‘100%’ represented the clearest way to the majority. But he cited other pickup opportunities in Arizona, Michigan and even Montana for the seat held by Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke.”
As part of the ad buy, House Majority PAC plans to drop $18 million in the Los Angeles media market, partly aimed at GOP Reps. Young Kim, Michelle Steel, Ken Calvert and Mike Garcia while defending a seat left open by Democratic Rep. Katie Porter’s decision not to run for reelection. The group reserved $4.2 million in the Fresno media market that could be used against GOP Reps. John Duarte and David Valadao, who could be hit with another $1.7 million reserved in the market of Bakersfield, California. [The DCCC’s California candidates are mostly garbage who the voters don’t want to support— perfect examples of the lesser-of-two-evils the DCCC forces on Democratic voters. They should be able to win 6 GOP-held seats; they’ll be lucky to win one, likely the Calvert seat, because of abysmal candidate selection.]
The group is also planning to drop another $16.1 million in New York City, some of which could hit Reps. Mike Lawler, Anthony D’Esposito, Nick LaLota and New Jersey’s Tom Kean Jr. In upstate New York, where the group has roughly $5 million reserved, GOP Reps. Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams are expected to be targeted.
Among the numerous other targets: roughly $2 million likely to knock off Rep. Jen Kiggans of Virginia, $5.8 million at David Schweikert of Arizona and $2.4 million at Juan Ciscomani of Arizona. About $2 million is slated for Omaha, Nebraska, a sign that Rep. Don Bacon is about to be pummeled by attacks. The group has reserved $5.7 million in Philadelphia, which could target Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick and defend Democratic Rep. Susan Wild. Another $10 million could go after GOP Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer of Oregon and defend Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of nearby Washington state.
…Biden’s candidacy could be tricky for the five Democrats in Trump districts— in Alaska, Maine, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Washington state— and four open seats being vacated by retiring Democrats in Michigan, California and Virginia.
Among the big bucks that the group plans to spend to defend those seats: roughly $3.7 million to help Rep. Jared Golden in Maine, $5.4 million in part to defend Marcy Kaptur in Ohio and $4.1 million to help Matt Cartwright in Pennsylvania. Nothing has been reserved in Alaska to help Mary Peltola, but Smith said each media market has a different set of circumstances dictating when to place an ad buy, suggesting that Alaska would be on the group’s list for later in the cycle.
And the group is prioritizing making early ad reservations in states with key Senate races and presidential battlegrounds since ad time will be scarce in the fall.
For instance, Zinke’s seat in Montana is one that Democrats believe could be in play given the high-profile Senate race there between Sen. Jon Tester and Republican Tim Sheehy. The group has reserved roughly $4.2 million in Montana media markets.
“Montana-01 is a seat that I think that we can actually pick up,” Smith said. “It’s a seat that Sen. Tester, probably the best senator that’s ever existed in the state of Montana, is going to turn out Democratic voters there. We’re investing already at this point in terms of registering more Democrats.” [The Democrats have an incredibly bad candidate for the seat, Monica Tranel, who has nothing at all to offer except party bullshit and she can’t possibly win. Last cycle, MT-01 was an open seat, the best opportunity for a Democrat, but Zinke beat Tranel 123,102 (49.6%) to 115,265 (46.5%). The DCCC and their affiliates spent nothing that cycle; this time they might but it won’t matter; she’ll lose much worse than last cycle, even though Tester will win that district strongly. Candidates matter, something the DCCC has never understood and never will.]
Paul Kane reported yesterday that “there are a dozen toss-up seats— eight held by Republicans— in which Biden won by five percentage points or more. Democrats are thus better positioned to pick up more competitive House seats than Republicans are… [G]iven the shrinking number of voters who split their tickets between parties, Biden could help flip the House to Democrats just by performing close to how he did in 2020— and Trump could aid in flipping the Senate to Republicans just by essentially matching his losing effort four years ago. This should be true no matter which one of them is elected president… Today’s political climate has been sorted into a geographical division in which rural, working-class regions fall heavily toward Trump and almost reflexively elect a Republican to the House. Urban districts are almost exclusively for Democrats and provide huge chunks of Biden’s support. That leaves hand-to-hand combat for the suburban districts. Those have drifted far away from Trump and provided the edge for the Democratic majority in 2018. But then enough of those voters became disillusioned enough with Biden to help Republicans narrowly win the 2022 House majority.”
Hurting the Republicans in their uphill fight to retain control of the House, is the chaos and dysfunction that has caused large number of incumbents to decide to bail out. Marianna Sotomayor counted 21 Republicans leaving this year, “another sign of the broader drop in morale within the GOP conference. Many Republican lawmakers have largely accepted that their inability to govern is a predicament of their own making. They acknowledge that overcoming their legislative impasse relies on not just keeping control of the House in November, but growing their ranks significantly to neutralize the handful of hard-liners who wield influence by taking advantage of the narrow margins. But many also continue to say privately what few have acknowledged publicly: Republicans believe they are likely to lose the majority. And members are also worried that some lawmakers who have already decided to leave will consider resigning early, threatening Republicans’ current majority. Former congressman Ken Buck (R-CO), who resigned after condemning how unserious his party has become, has hinted that several additional colleagues are mulling leaving before the new year. ‘This is a dysfunctional place and I’m not making an observation that others haven’t made,’ Buck said.”
Forty-three lawmakers, almost evenly split between both parties, won’t return to the House next year. While the number of retirements is on par with previous years, examining exactly who and how quickly Republicans are retiring tells a more complex story.
Five of 21 retiring Republicans will have resigned before the end of the term. Four GOP committee chairs are leaving, but Republicans were particularly shocked at the announced departures of Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) and Gallagher, who are not term-limited from continuing to oversee their committees. Eight lawmakers are retiring from the coveted Energy and Commerce Committee and eight subcommittee chairs are leaving. Four former members of a different GOP leadership era also have called it quits: former speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), his trusted deputy Patrick McHenry (R-NC), former deputy whip Drew Ferguson (R-GA), and McMorris Rodgers, who previously served as conference chair.
Following the historic ouster of McCarthy last year and the subsequent difficulty governing, several lawmakers and aides familiar with their boss’s decision— who like others spoke on the condition anonymity to freely discuss personal plans— seriously considered retiring. But what kept most of these more-pragmatic Republicans from pulling the trigger was the possibility that their absence could open up the seat to a candidate more willing to stonewall than govern.
…The deep animosity and personal disdain between members following McCarthy’s ouster played a role in Debbie Lesko’s (R-AZ) decision to leave. Lesko announced her retirement in the middle of the three-week fight to elect Johnson, citing a desire to spend more time with family. But she added in her statement what many Republicans have echoed: “Right now, Washington, D.C. is broken; it is hard to get anything done.”
Greg Pence (R-IN) pointed to the “chaotic schedules” getting in the way of working in his district bordering Indianapolis. Like many retirees, Pence announced in January he wouldn’t seek reelection after spending the holidays weighing the decision with family members, who became the main incentive for him to leave. How his colleagues had behaved in the months prior “didn’t incentivize” him to stay, he said.
Kelly Armstrong (R-ND), who was elected in 2018 and has decided to run for governor, stressed that he’s never known “what normal is in Congress” after experiencing two impeachments Trump, the coronavirus pandemic, and the Jan. 6 insurrection. Gallagher, who was elected two years before Armstrong, echoed the sentiment, saying while “Congress is getting increasingly chaotic” it has “been pretty steadily chaotic during my eight years.”
…Increased intraparty tensions did influence Buck to resign and subsequently retire early last month. Many of his colleagues, however, blame him for contributing to the instability. The five-term congressman voted to oust McCarthy, arguing that the former speaker “didn’t keep his word” on working to significantly curtail spending. Buck ran for office in the tea party era when conservatives were passionate about reigning in spending and he believes the GOP has turned away from realistically trying to achieve those goals to instead focus on defending Trump and scoring political points.
“I think that the populist wave has eroded the conservative values that I had when I came to this place,” Buck said. "Now, we’re impeaching people like it’s some kind of carnival and the Constitution is just a thing of the past to the very same people who were tea party patriots 10 to 12 years ago.”
Unlike members of the House Freedom Caucus— which Buck belonged to until they voted to kick him out last month— the Coloradan argued that pushing for ideologically pure legislation thwarts Republicans’ ability to actually land conservative wins, because “you have to have consensus in this building.” Buck said he has been most successful passing bipartisan legislation to reform how corporations deal with sexual assault and harassment claims and raising awareness on big-tech antitrust legislation, calling it “ironic” that he “got a lot more good work done with the Democrats in charge than House Republicans in charge.”
…[M]embers of the far-right flank consider some of those retiring as traitors abandoning the fight. At a recent reelection rally for Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good (R-VA) in Scottsville, Va., Matt Gaetz (R-FL) told voters to stop sending establishment politicians who are only “looking for the next job in Washington, D.C.” when they’re elected— a jab at retiring lawmakers who may end up working at lobbying firms or other influential Washington mainstays.
Those retiring do not necessarily blame hard-liners for the inability to achieve all the goals they wanted, from [Larry] Buschon who hoped to lower the cost of health care and further address maternal mortality rates to Gallagher and [Brad] Wenstrup both wishing more could have been done to return power from the executive back to Congress and states. All are looking forward to helping their successors establish themselves on the Hill, with Pence hoping his “stays in touch with their constituents — and not just promote themselves,” a dig at hard-liners in the far-right flank.
While the retirees mull their future, former congressman Chris Stewart (R-UT), who retired last year to care for his ailing wife, had some words to impart to them when he returned to address the Congressional Gold Medal recipients last month.
“I want you to know: There’s not been a single morning that I woke up and thought, ‘Man, I wish I was back in Congress,’” he said to laughter.
These special election margin swings from last year presage doom for the House Republicans— and for Republicans in state legislatures this year. The most contested congressional election this year was on Long Island— the George Santos seat— which Democrat Tom Suozzi flipped blue… with a vengeance. The GOP’s handpicked candidate was roundly rejected by the voters 53.9% to 46.1%… nearly an 8 point margin, in a district that was won by Santos in 2022 by almost identical margins (53.8% to 46.2%) and by the Republican gubernatorial candidate by 10 points. This despite the GOP’s Congressional Leadership Fund spending $5,005,872, some right-wing dark money group spending another $1.5 million attacking Suozzi and the NRCC kicking in $917,190. All wasted money.
